ASI - coming week

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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby Contra » Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:40 am

Top blue chips in sectors such as diversify and banking and finance sector and some companies have done well in this quarter despite having low business volume (generally business volume is low in the quarter ending June for sectors such as hotels, food and few other sectors) and other short term issues. As usual, stocks prices didn’t react to earnings this time too. I noticed when companies announced attractive earnings share prices dropped in the CSE during last couple of quarters. It has become new normal now.

There will be great opportunity for those who analyse future trend, earnings for more than one quarter and growth rather than analysing very short term issues, short term trend and one quarter earnings. There are lot of things to learn on stock markets.
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby stocks hunter » Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:19 am

Xmart wrote:Well, at the moment ASI heading south. breaking below of consolidation box is currently testing 23.6% fib + 6600 support. but as you can see our trend is getting stronger hence i would expect ASI to test 38.2%fib + 6500 support in coming week. 6450-6500 would give a strong support to the ASI as per the daily chart. weekly chart has not turned negative yet, so due to overall bullish nature i would call this a much needed retracement fueled by not so good June results.

therefore, sometimes we might see a cool off of heated counter, selective runs and some of cheap stocks getting cheaper.
ASI_D_8_1.PNG

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Good comments X mart........

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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby Shadow walker » Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:19 am

Xmart wrote:Well, at the moment ASI heading south. breaking below of consolidation box is currently testing 23.6% fib + 6600 support. but as you can see our trend is getting stronger hence i would expect ASI to test 38.2%fib + 6500 support in coming week. 6450-6500 would give a strong support to the ASI as per the daily chart. weekly chart has not turned negative yet, so due to overall bullish nature i would call this a much needed retracement fueled by not so good June results.

therefore, sometimes we might see a cool off of heated counter, selective runs and some of cheap stocks getting cheaper.
ASI_D_8_1.PNG

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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby sashimaal » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:22 pm

Lot of index manipulation today

HHL down Rs 5 with 200 shares
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby SHARK » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:28 pm

How can we fix this terrible dirty game.

One way is to ignore watching the manipulated INDEX :D and look at SPSL20
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby dhanurrox » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:29 pm

SHARK wrote:How can we fix this terrible dirty game.

One way is to ignore watching the manipulated INDEX :D and look at SPSL20


people with information is there bu no one knows the dirty gang.

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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:31 pm

JKH dropping have a good say on today's decline + retailers seem to be shedding some blue chip holdings and chasing behind some plantations .
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby Contra » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:40 pm

Blue Whale wrote:JKH dropping have a good say on today's decline + retailers seem to be shedding some blue chip holdings and chasing behind some plantations .


Naturally, there will be more value in those stocks when players try to rotate their stocks. Badly beaten down fundamentally sound stocks are the ones to watch. Plantation stocks are momentum oriented stocks.
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:45 pm

When the momentum picking up and the funda stocks are becoming like sleeping elephants then what is the reaction of those retailers. Hope I don't need to elaborate :))
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby Contra » Fri Aug 11, 2017 1:58 pm

In the current market, market players like sudden momentum in stocks as they didn't see meaningful recovery of the market for a long period. Even I like some momentum stocks back by fundamentals. It is wise to identify at least few stocks before the momentum. There are winning stocks in any type of market situation.
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby Contra » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:38 am

We are seeing weak market now. As market participants are active with selected stocks including plantation stocks, other attractive stocks in the market have become more attractive due to their drop in their share prices without any fundamental reasons. Intelligent investors will have another great opportunity to re-balance and rotate their stocks before begin their momentum. Weak market is ideal for plan trade or investments. Performance of some companies in the first half of this year may be not that impressive but performance of first half of next year they should give impressive results in addition to much improved performance in the second half of this year.
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby Xmart » Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:26 pm

when this was writing i was expecting a bounce back from 38.2% Fib [6450-6500] but market has more leg down it seems. now it is about to test 50% Fib [6350-6375] for the good. for the sake of prevailing bull to stay alive it is much needed to bounce back from 50% fib and test 38.2% fib and consolidate around 6500.

here is the updated chart
ASI_D_8_23.PNG


we are at 50% Fib before crucial support level 01 [6200], it is vital to remain above or hard bonce of ASI from 50% Fib to stay bullish in mid term. but most of indicators signal otherwise. but from my experience what i gathered is index, hence the technical indicators are easily manipulated in CSE due to its small size and low liquidity.

Market is digesting the effect of corporate tax, not so good macro economic environment and global economic and political tension with help from not so good June results. if we do not bounce from 6350 level or at least from 6150-6200 level, we can safely assume market is range bound between 5900- 6600 despite earnings. there is a game here in CSE and it does not play by natural rule of capitalistic liberal market theory. so, one has to be careful and be smart to survive in CSE.

Xmart wrote:Well, at the moment ASI heading south. breaking below of consolidation box is currently testing 23.6% fib + 6600 support. but as you can see our trend is getting stronger hence i would expect ASI to test 38.2%fib + 6500 support in coming week. 6450-6500 would give a strong support to the ASI as per the daily chart. weekly chart has not turned negative yet, so due to overall bullish nature i would call this a much needed retracement fueled by not so good June results.

therefore, sometimes we might see a cool off of heated counter, selective runs and some of cheap stocks getting cheaper.
ASI_D_8_1.PNG

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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby topcat » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:46 am

Thnxs X... Yes manipulations for both ways. But we only used to worry when index forced down.. If someone also point out when index forced up using few blue chips, we can try to survive in those situstions..
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DailyStockWatch23.08.2017

Postby ruwan999 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:43 am


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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby ruwan999 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:44 am

can anyone make a topic for Daily Stock Watch?

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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby NC+ » Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:52 am

ruwan999 wrote:can anyone make a topic for Daily Stock Watch?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4684
You can post there now... :-bd
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby SHARK » Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:01 am

Can we see a super September ......

Statistics prior to 2009 states September has been good to CSE :D
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby SHARK » Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:30 am

1st Sep and 5th Sep are holidays ............. (Haj Festivals & Poya)

So next week we have interrupted trading days ....
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby Xmart » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:58 am

Let's hope for the best. Super September is coming, yet last year September was not super though. Macroeconomic picture is somewhat improved with port deal and port city development. CB Governor has a good vision ( that I happened to listen his speech at IESL graduation ceremony) but sadly I'll witted politicians are effing the country big way.

September, here we come!
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby SHARK » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:15 am

from 6000 to 6750 with a brief correction of 50% at 6375 ...... tested and moving its journey in an upward trajectory.
it is although too early to be all bullish, however i am watchful of the initial target of 6565.
if the target can be met with ... ease in september and beyond...

i will be more interested to see off 6755 which stands as last RES.

In october we will have the quarterly reports coming out and within few week of this will have to be prepared for the budget in november.

with no more elections in the year ahead, and repayment pressure on loans to impact greatly.

there will be little impact on the exchange rates.

heard of certain SOEs to be listed..... in my opinion this will come in april after elections is my opinion.

keeping my fingers crossed.... for better times ahead starting April 2018
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby sashimaal » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:19 pm

Seems both COMB and JKH has come back to their last level after moving up for qtys
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby SHARK » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:23 pm

Well done Sash on 3000
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby sashimaal » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:49 pm

Thanks Shark :-)
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby sashimaal » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:59 pm

We need to understand that we should not compare ASI 6500+ about 3-6 months ago (or few years back) with current ASI levels.

Those days:
NEST was Rs 2200 approx
CCS was Rs 1000 approx
HHL was Rs 150+
LLUB was Rs 170,
etc, etc

We have seen many index heavy shares fallen down to more decent valuations.

So actually current levels of 6450-6500 is actually much more than 6450-6500 few months back...
And if you were holding above mentioned shares, most gave a good exit opportunity as well before coming down (most will be back to those levels in time to come).

What we need to take into consideration is the shares we hold and their performance. I am sure most of the shares discussed in TEC have given good returns in recent future. And the good thing is that were at the early stages of a bull run. So....much better times are ahead of us \m/
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Re: ASI - coming week

Postby SHARK » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:21 pm

You got a point sash..... so in terms of current ASI standing we are at a much better situation.... it would be a matter of time these heavy weights come back to its original pricing ....

JKH 175
CCS 1000
CTC 1100
LION 500
COMB 150

looking at NEST around 1750 ..... phew some selling ....
HHL 120 down from 155
LLUB 120 down from 175

hovering around 6500 is ok as you said....
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