BFN Community

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Re: BFN Community

Postby GB » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:24 am

Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:A summarised financial analysis for whom interesting of BFN
Orient Finance Financial Analysis.jpg
It shows a good revenue growth over the years and expecting 3.3Bn for the year ending 2016/17. Also profitability is expected to be moderately higher compared to the last year's normalized PAT.

The merger with Bartleet Finance has made Orient Finance a strong second tier Finance company. Their loan book growth was really interesting with a growth of over 16% after the merger. By looking at the expected equity I think the requirement for a rights issue too not so near.

In terms of valuation following summery can be made available.
Based on industry PE the price will be 13.7 (based on 2016/17 earnings)
based on industry PBV the price will be 19.0 (based on 2016/17 estimated NAV)

The average price turn out to be 16.4 and the current price of Rs11.3 seems to be a at a discount of 30% from the real value. Therefore this share has further potential to go up in the short term. Also sometimes we could expect a dividend too.


Posted 6 months ago when trading @ 11.3. Now the stock is proving the value of this analysis. Closing in to the fair value. Especially I did this for GB and hopefully GB is pumped up now.


Yep.. Thank you BW... :ymhug: It was the biggest headache those days. later I dispose 2/3 of my holding and move with MAL, MASK and LDEV.

Now all my picks are giving good returns these days including BFN :)

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Re: BFN Community

Postby newer1 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:28 am

Thanks BW abd Good luck GB.
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Re: BFN Community

Postby Contra » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:57 am

Stocks never go up or down continuously. Currently bullish stocks had lot of selling. Smart buyers collected slowly. After some time when we see initial vibrations in stocks there is a more probability to go them up. By that time all tired traders and weak hands will not be there.

For investors it is a different ball game. If they have kept quality winning stocks three to five years while ignoring all types of calamities in the market, they will never miss some of the biggest gain in the market. Then there are multibaggers as well. As long as emergency money is there by investing in quality stocks, investors can generate above avenge returns in the mid and long run.

As I said one by one we can see new bullish stocks. We will see more bullish stocks in the coming weeks provided we don’t see pause in the market by November. Next month is very crucial for the CSE and it will be make or break month for stocks. I am not overly bullish and not overly bearish either. Best thing that wee can do is finding out some quality winning stocks.
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Re: BFN Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:12 am

Correct Contra.....

Targets have reached... mine was 12.50, 14 and 16

Elliot Wave indicates a possible new 3rd wave above 16Rs. as the previous price level was broken yesterday.

i started buying off around 16, averaged at regular price levels and managed it to bring down substantially my avg cost.
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Re: BFN Community

Postby GB » Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:19 am

Contra wrote: Next month is very crucial for the CSE and it will be make or break month for stocks. I am not overly bullish and not overly bearish either. Best thing that wee can do is finding out some quality winning stocks.


I like to above statement.... :D

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Re: BFN Community

Postby GB » Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:24 am

SHARK wrote:Correct Contra.....

Targets have reached... mine was 12.50, 14 and 16

Elliot Wave indicates a possible new 3rd wave above 16Rs. as the previous price level was broken yesterday.

i started buying off around 16, averaged at regular price levels and managed it to bring down substantially my avg cost.


Yes..GL shark.. Me too collected above 16.50 and later avg. it.

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Re: BFN Community

Postby GB » Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:27 am

It seems that First Capital exit from BFN....

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Re: BFN Community

Postby PAT » Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:11 pm

GB wrote:It seems that First Capital exit from BFN....


I too fully...... :-h
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Re: BFN Community

Postby Lasa » Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:24 pm

Hi Pat / GB
If First capital exist from BFN, would be good or bad? If so why the share price is going up? Thanks for your advice in advance.

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Re: BFN Community

Postby PAT » Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:42 pm

Lasa wrote:Hi Pat / GB
If First capital exist from BFN, would be good or bad? If so why the share price is going up? Thanks for your advice in advance.


I think Shark and others can elaborate more

Personally I felt around 15/16 is reasonable value for BFN at present; hence sold
(your strategy maybe different)

exist of FC, honestly I cannot say either bad or good
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Re: BFN Community

Postby GB » Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:47 pm

When we bought at 16 -17 in previous high they are the people who sold their holdings to retails.

So I think this time also they pushed the share price and sold to retails and there was a crossing of 1.8 Mn too.

Don't have a idea about future prices and without taking much higher risk I also fully exit.

This is my personal view and get expert ideas too..if you further interest.

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Re: BFN Community

Postby Lasa » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:01 pm

Many thanks GB. Appriciate a much.

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Re: BFN Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:04 pm

sashimaal wrote:Yes this is a super LT share.

But there is a big seller at the moment as well.


This was posted a year ago..... the big sellers were Dunamis & FC who sold to the market without finding a strategic investor.

If this cleared, BFN should move now above 16Rs.

The uptrend was halted back then due to top sellers.

need to find who the buyer :-?
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Re: BFN Community

Postby PATHFINDER » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:39 pm

Compared to other big finance companies BFN trading at a higher PE ratio.This run is not due to fundamental improvement IMO.
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Re: BFN Community

Postby Lasa » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:17 am

GB, it looks something going on with this stock. JINS also showing colures while BFN running

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Re: BFN Community

Postby SHARK » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:18 am

trading @15.70 with encouraging numbers.
noted foreign buy as well in past days.
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Re: BFN Community

Postby Lasa » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:29 pm

more than 2million traded so far. What's going on with this?
is to high to enter now?

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Re: BFN Community

Postby SHARK » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:50 pm

Those who entered around 10-11 or 12 must be in happy mood.
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Re: BFN Community

Postby Investor from 1985 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:03 pm

Timing is most important element I guess ... :))
Attitude determines how well you do it. :)

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Re: BFN Community

Postby Cseinvester » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:16 pm

If you check quarter reports with out top 20 other share holders holds 2.7 million shares which today shares include. So big fish can push share price easily what he like...

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Re: BFN Community

Postby Investor from 1985 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:28 pm

Cseinvester wrote:If you check quarter reports with out top 20 other share holders holds 2.7 million shares which today shares include. So big fish can push share price easily what he like...



It seems you have forgotten to check reports back on april 2017 ;)

(psychological reasons for blaming others , watch out what experts advise :-\ )
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Re: BFN Community

Postby SHARK » Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:06 pm

I think some where in the past sash had indicated and i reposted as well, also if you had check the begining FS couple of top 3 SH were selling to the market when share was around 16.

so this badly reflected and SP came as low as 10.

and they stopped it selling if i remember.

smart retailers collected at the lows :ymparty: and averaged it $-)

but lots of things going around, as we witnessed CALF buy out by DIAL.

so we need be watching out for developing events in the finance sector. :)
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Re: BFN Community

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:26 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:A summarised financial analysis for whom interesting of BFN
Orient Finance Financial Analysis.jpg
It shows a good revenue growth over the years and expecting 3.3Bn for the year ending 2016/17. Also profitability is expected to be moderately higher compared to the last year's normalized PAT.

The merger with Bartleet Finance has made Orient Finance a strong second tier Finance company. Their loan book growth was really interesting with a growth of over 16% after the merger. By looking at the expected equity I think the requirement for a rights issue too not so near.

In terms of valuation following summery can be made available.
Based on industry PE the price will be 13.7 (based on 2016/17 earnings)
based on industry PBV the price will be 19.0 (based on 2016/17 estimated NAV)

The average price turn out to be 16.4 and the current price of Rs11.3 seems to be a at a discount of 30% from the real value. Therefore this share has further potential to go up in the short term. Also sometimes we could expect a dividend too.


Posted 6 months ago when trading @ 11.3. Now the stock is proving the value of this analysis. Closing in to the fair value. Especially I did this for GB and hopefully GB is pumped up now.


Targets set six months ago achieved today finally. :-bd
Value Invest Profit

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Re: BFN Community

Postby GB » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:41 pm

Thank you BW. But GB is not more with BFN and exit bit early but with a profit.. :D

Those who collected at bottom can celebrate with 50 % profit...GL.

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Re: BFN Community

Postby PAT » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:49 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:A summarised financial analysis for whom interesting of BFN
Orient Finance Financial Analysis.jpg
It shows a good revenue growth over the years and expecting 3.3Bn for the year ending 2016/17. Also profitability is expected to be moderately higher compared to the last year's normalized PAT.

The merger with Bartleet Finance has made Orient Finance a strong second tier Finance company. Their loan book growth was really interesting with a growth of over 16% after the merger. By looking at the expected equity I think the requirement for a rights issue too not so near.

In terms of valuation following summery can be made available.
Based on industry PE the price will be 13.7 (based on 2016/17 earnings)
based on industry PBV the price will be 19.0 (based on 2016/17 estimated NAV)

The average price turn out to be 16.4 and the current price of Rs11.3 seems to be a at a discount of 30% from the real value. Therefore this share has further potential to go up in the short term. Also sometimes we could expect a dividend too.


Posted 6 months ago when trading @ 11.3. Now the stock is proving the value of this analysis. Closing in to the fair value. Especially I did this for GB and hopefully GB is pumped up now.


Targets set six months ago achieved today finally. :-bd


......... :-bd
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Without compromising your ability to Live Tomorrow……… :)


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