MAL Community

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Re: MAL Community

Postby SHARK » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:19 pm

Value wrote:MAL delivered it.

Pathfinder has highlighted an important point which indicates how the immediate future is going to be provided that circumstances remain unchanged.



Let me disclose my workings now .....

i expected 35% below QoQ...

but MAL revenue decline QoQ is only 10%

So in my view and as i suggested MAL exceeded my results.

i was holding this information until plantations results trickle down.

t.png


tea.png


so i dont give much emphasis on the fact QoQ was 10% below. This was expected in my view to be worst as i suggested.

i stressed in other threads in same sector elsewhere.

and however MAL has delivered above expectations of many. :-bd

please treat as its my personal opinion.
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Re: MAL Community

Postby Value » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:25 pm

Great work Shark.

The QoQ growth will naturally slow down as it is impossible keep the past growth momentum.

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Re: MAL Community

Postby PAT » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:48 pm

Beta wrote:https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/722_1510050507.pdf
.
Result Out

Quarter EPS 1.04
Nine Months 2.52


as predicted over RS 1 for Sep quarter too......... :-bd

EPS
Q 1 (March ) - RS 0.45
Q 2 (June) - Rs 1.02
Q3 (Sep) - RS 1.04

for Q4 (Dec) too we can expect Rs 1+
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Re: MAL Community

Postby PAT » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:50 pm

Value wrote:Great work Shark.

The QoQ growth will naturally slow down as it is impossible keep the past growth momentum.


Indeed Value,

considering superior PAT in previous 2/3 quarters when compared to 2016......
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Re: MAL Community

Postby PAT » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:52 pm

Blue Whale wrote:I would like to handover the market price to Mr.Market. Mr.Market will decide what is the price MAL will carry with these results and with the results we can expect to come.

But what I like the most is that MAL has proved once again that my assumptions used to derive the forecasts for Plantation companies are true. Like the previous quarter this quarter too I estimated some numbers for plantation companies. Similar to last quarter Hayleys plantation companies have proved that they are different from others so that my estimates were not even closer. But MAL has done the justice to my effort.

My revenue target for MAL in Q3 was 1,285Mn and PAT for Q3 was 215Mn. They have reported a revenue of 1,152 and a PAT of 233Mn; the difference is due to the finance income where I didn't included that in my estimates. With this result I am certain that MAL will generate a PAT in excess of 250Mn for the upcoming quarter thereby meeting my full year target.

If I talk about the current price and the activities happening in the market now I must say that a significant amount of collection has happened between the price band of 12 - 13. People who have good profits have realized them taking the advantage of prevalent of stable high price while reducing any risk that can impact the profits due to broader market uncertainty (ASPI is still not stabilize and can go either way). But the golden question is whether the current price is a fair price or not. If a company is perceived to generate an EPS of above 1 for the next immediate quarters and when the industry in which the company operates sees good future and coming out of a rut in a grand style what kind of a PE investors will assign to the industry as well as company.

MAL is trading @ a forward PE of 3.4x based on 2017 projected earnings. If you look at the year 2018 the situation will be the same given the forecasts by many economic experts. Then if we assume in 2018 also MAL will going to generate earnings around 800-850Mn then what price it should trade. Is the 12/- a fair value for a stock that is set to record its highest ever earnings in 2018. Think before others realize it as we are in TEC community.

I should say that, according to my view, MAL should upgrade to a PE of 5x in the months to come. Even though I have good profits I decided to keep all my stocks for some more time. Instead I collected some good quantities from the market around 12/- because of my view. Your view can be different but you need to see things logically as well.

I am waiting to see MASK, LDEV, UDPL and BALA reports too to see how accurate I have analyzed the situation. I could be terribly wrong but that is the art of investments in equities.


......... :-bd
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Re: MAL Community

Postby PAT » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:54 pm

stocks hunter wrote:NAV has increased to Rs15.01 from Rs13.96 from June Q17.

Look at how fast their other income is growing. Other income turn over is Rs987,378 for the period & PAT is Rs82,377mn for the period. This area is stronger than that of WATA is something to cheer about.

MAL is a well diversified company. High liquidity in MAL is the advantage they have to attract large funds - local/foreign at any time in future. When scrutinizing the segment income of MAL it is observed that other income has supported immensely to the bottom line of the company even during bad times. As SHARK suggested MAL to take the similar path of WATA or ELPL in future is almost possible. Just look at the WATA income segmentation with MAL. WATA has it's export arm as well as MAL. But MAL export arm is more stronger than WATA. What is difference here is the income from oil palm. But as per the annual report they have already started planting oil palm in their estates....

Extarct from annual report of MAL 2016 ---

"The year under review saw the start of our branding process which should lead to positioning your company as a brand name in the international tea market. Our goal would be to enter niche markets in order to get premium prices for our exquisite teas. In 2017 we have started to participate in Trade Fairs.

The company is currently shipping it’s teas to destinations such as Azerbaijan, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Japan, China, Germany and Canada.

The Rubber Export arm of your company is steadily progressing despite the depressed global marketing conditions. We intend to develop this further in the coming years. We are currently shipping our rubber to Malaysia, Pakistan, Czech Republic, Brazil, Germany, Netherlands, India and Bangladesh.

Our Spice and Fruit Export from our diversified projects will commence no sooner commercial volumes are harvested.

Crop diversification

The program of crop diversification whereby we are planting large extents of pepper, mandarin, avocado and cardamom was continued in 2016. In the year under review we have harvested 3,600 kgs of pepper. We have also commenced the nurseries for oil palm which would be planted later in 2017.

Your company still believes that income generated from these diversification projects may become the “life blood” of our Company in the years to come.

Investments...

The Company spent a sum of Rs. 153.25 million under Capital Expenditure on new clearings and diversification. This will no doubt help to strengthen future earnings of your company.

Mission...

Malwatte Valley Plantations PLC is committed to achieved excellence and the highest quality standards in every sphere of activity by optimizing productivity and developing its employees. We will become
an increasingly profitable, stable and growth oriented model private plantation sector securing an acceptable return on investment through its core business as well as by diversification into other sectors, whilst affording the highest priority for environmental and social needs ."

MAL will be a very powerful plantation company in years to come. When examine the top 20 list of MAL & WATA it is obvious that WATA has managed to attract more foreign investors than MAL at the moment.


MAL is not a rubber company. But they have managed to make profits out of rubber since beginning of FY 2017 is a good message to rubber plantation companies.

I would like to handover the market price to Mr.Market. Mr.Market will decide what is the price MAL will carry with these results and with the results we can expect to come.


What ever the out come tomorrow is not the matter. MAL share holders should proud of their company & the management.

:-ss :-ss


........ :-bd
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Re: MAL Community

Postby stocks hunter » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:57 pm

You can have many positives & many negative factors in a company P&L & the balance sheet. We should understand that no listed company is 100% perfect. Look at NEST NAV. Some can see it as negative but many other investors have different ideas & that's why NEST is trading at such high prices.

Situation is same when it comes to all other companies. Look at TAFL EPS for 9 months is very close to Rs20. & still trading below PE 6.0 which is really good.

All depends on how majority of investors of a particular company understand the situation & how confident they are to hold the company shares for future.

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Re: MAL Community

Postby Money Tree » Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:38 pm

Value wrote:Great work Shark.

The QoQ growth will naturally slow down as it is impossible keep the past growth momentum.


Agreed with value :)

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Re: MAL Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:25 am

as suggested by SH and most members, palm oil harvest will be after three years, MAL will start planting the oil palm nurseries towards the year end (2017). And if one can hold MAL say for 4 year, should see MAL rising the ranks similar to WATA and ELPL.

there is a ready market within srilanka for palm oil as our imports exceeds domestic production.

the current cultivation is around 10k Ha. where as the requirement is around 20Ha land mass.

lets hope they stay on course and also reward the shares holders from time to time with a decent payout.

if favourable tea prices can be maintained across till 2020, there will be great relief for the company/group of its positive cash flow.

MAL is a LT share after reviewing their analytics, shared by SH.

you can not blame people selling now due to performance of some of the other tea companies.

but we should avoid painting with same brush certain shares that performed well with the rest who have not performed well.

so we need to be careful in that sense, as we could loose sighting small important details by looking at the bigger picture. :-ss

look at ELPL, WATA.

will MAL be next ELPL in terms of showing postive net earnings QoQ despite fluctuations in our tea prices.

monitor closely the previous quarters and if you are still unsure about it monitor the next few quarters as well before your decision is made to hold,sell or buy.
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Re: MAL Community

Postby stocks hunter » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:37 am

SHARK wrote:as suggested by SH and most members, palm oil harvest will be after three years, MAL will start planting the oil palm nurseries towards the year end (2017). And if one can hold MAL say for 4 year, should see MAL rising the ranks similar to WATA and ELPL.

there is a ready market within srilanka for palm oil as our imports exceeds domestic production.

the current cultivation is around 10k Ha. where as the requirement is around 20Ha land mass.

lets hope they stay on course and also reward the shares holders from time to time with a decent payout.

if favourable tea prices can be maintained across till 2020, there will be great relief for the company/group of its positive cash flow.

MAL is a LT share after reviewing their analytics, shared by SH.

you can not blame people selling now due to performance of some of the other tea companies.

but we should avoid painting with same brush certain shares that performed well with the rest who have not performed well.

so we need to be careful in that sense, as we could loose sighting small important details by looking at the bigger picture. :-ss

look at ELPL, WATA.

will MAL be next ELPL in terms of showing postive net earnings QoQ despite fluctuations in our tea prices.

monitor closely the previous quarters and if you are still unsure about it monitor the next few quarters as well before your decision is made to hold,sell or buy.


MAL is a share that report better earnings YoY & QoQ this time & this should start to trade against the general mkt trend as per my view. This was the case when it comes to WATA & ELPL as well...

[-x [-x

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Re: MAL Community

Postby DKDAKA » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:14 am

see the buying pressure.... :-\ :-\ :-\

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Re: MAL Community

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:47 am

If anyone can buy MAL within the price band of 10/- and 11/- then they are in for a great mid term return. Don't miss this opportunity.
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Re: MAL Community

Postby Investor from 1985 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:41 pm

Blue Whale wrote:If anyone can buy MAL within the price band of 10/- and 11/- then they are in for a great mid term return. Don't miss this opportunity.



:)) .... ?
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Re: MAL Community

Postby DXB » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:48 pm

Blue Whale wrote:If anyone can buy MAL within the price band of 10/- and 11/- then they are in for a great mid term return. Don't miss this opportunity.



:-bd :-bd :-bd
:)

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Re: MAL Community

Postby stocks hunter » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:15 pm

High time to think about MAL - The most profitable plantation company as @today with growth reported in QoQ & YoY as at 30/09/17

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Re: MAL Community

Postby Investor from 1985 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:22 pm

stocks hunter wrote:High time to think about MAL - The most profitable plantation company as @today with growth reported in QoQ & YoY as at 30/09/17


:-bd few months back I had the same view... I'm glad today.
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Re: MAL Community

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:33 pm

Investor from 1985 wrote:
stocks hunter wrote:High time to think about MAL - The most profitable plantation company as @today with growth reported in QoQ & YoY as at 30/09/17


:-bd few months back I had the same view... I'm glad today.


There are some others who had the same view more months back dear friend :))
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Re: MAL Community

Postby Investor from 1985 » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:39 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
Investor from 1985 wrote:
stocks hunter wrote:High time to think about MAL - The most profitable plantation company as @today with growth reported in QoQ & YoY as at 30/09/17


:-bd few months back I had the same view... I'm glad today.


There are some others who had the same view more months back dear friend :))



I dont know who they are but there was a guy call BW, I made over (100.....m) using his view's



Thanks BW & Tec ( completing one year in tec by 22nd november 2017)
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Re: MAL Community

Postby PAT » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:56 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
Investor from 1985 wrote:
stocks hunter wrote:High time to think about MAL - The most profitable plantation company as @today with growth reported in QoQ & YoY as at 30/09/17


:-bd few months back I had the same view... I'm glad today.


There are some others who had the same view more months back dear friend :))


Indeed... :)) :))
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Re: MAL Community

Postby stocks hunter » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:31 am

Yes....My view is MAL should come out & lead the plantations now with latest results & others should follow

will see......

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Re: MAL Community

Postby Shadow walker » Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:14 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
Investor from 1985 wrote:
stocks hunter wrote:High time to think about MAL - The most profitable plantation company as @today with growth reported in QoQ & YoY as at 30/09/17


:-bd few months back I had the same view... I'm glad today.


There are some others who had the same view more months back dear friend :))



:ar!
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Re: MAL Community

Postby PAT » Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:54 pm

stocks hunter wrote:Yes....My view is MAL should come out & lead the plantations now with latest results & others should follow

will see......


.......... :-w
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Re: MAL Community

Postby stocks hunter » Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:13 pm

PAT wrote:
stocks hunter wrote:Yes....My view is MAL should come out & lead the plantations now with latest results & others should follow

will see......


.......... :-w


Now it’s started to happen. Within next couple of days we will be in a position to witness the power of MAL ahead the rest of the plantations.

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Re: MAL Community

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:07 am

Blue Whale wrote:If anyone can buy MAL within the price band of 10/- and 11/- then they are in for a great mid term return. Don't miss this opportunity.


Showed the opportunity and you will see the results in due course.
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Re: MAL Community

Postby PAT » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:37 pm

actively traded even during red days........
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