ALUM Community

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby PAT » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:31 am

Thanks peter
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:08 am

alum.png


This is a brief snapshot of alum.

ideas welcome, those interested can share their observations.

revenue has increased at an average 7% QoQ and we can expect same increase in the next quarters.

CoS has had an impact on the shares earnings.

since the begining of 2016 we have seen a steady appreciation of aluminium prices from 1500$ to $2100+ in the world market upto now. and the trajectory is expected to ease out somewhat with higher energy cost.

however supply side risk is adding impetus to metal to appreciate to recent highs.

Quote"
China this year launched an aggressive campaign to curb smog in its northern regions, mandating a range of output cuts by steel and aluminium producers. Aluminium manufacturers must cut capacity by more than 30 percent across 28 cities"
Unquote

STOCKS: Aluminium inventories in LME-approved warehouses fell to levels last seen in 2008 at 1.3 million tonnes, down 2,725 tonnes from Tuesday

Increased capacity and possibility of passing the cost to customers will provide some leeway in the future for ALUMEX and

ALUMEX is in discussion with the authorities/GOSL to push/convince to include Alum products in the Neg list to ward off from possible heavy Chinese competition.

overall the industry is yet to lift off with booming construction related development which had seen double digit growth and they expect same to continue with higher vigor in the years ahead with governments plans in megapolis and portcity mega projects development activities kicks in.

coming back to ALUM share price had seen a higher price band around 24Rs as targeted earlier and now on a downward momentum.
support of 20rupees could be breached due to declining margins.

retail play /interest could pick up back of production unit is ready for commercial operations and lower aluminium prices. \m/

contrarian players will be looking at a range not more than 18Rs-18.50Rs accumulation. so watch out possible interest to pick once SP drops below 20 levels technically.

retailers may book profit till they see earning improvement.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:38 pm

Dear members
attached is the SHARK pattern based on Harmonic Price Pattern

alum.png


Below image indicate the Fib ratios.

1_Harmonic-Pattern-Shark.png
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Edmond » Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:22 pm

Thx SHARK, good to keep an eye.... :ymhug:

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:24 pm

Edmond wrote:Thx SHARK, good to keep an eye.... :ymhug:


18Rs, 18.50Rs good to buy and keep for few years :)

Wait for the right price, for those looking at extreme discounts. $-)

others can decide what levels to look at :ympeace:
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby prasa2004 » Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:23 pm

FC downgrade to HOLD and with ever rising metal prices and NAV only Rs.7.6 best is wait towards 15

http://www.firstcapital.lk/wp-content/u ... -11-17.pdf

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:36 pm

Thanks prasa :)
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby PAT » Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:17 pm

prasa2004 wrote:FC downgrade to HOLD and with ever rising metal prices and NAV only Rs.7.6 best is wait towards 15

http://www.firstcapital.lk/wp-content/u ... -11-17.pdf



Thanks Prasa ......
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Edmond » Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:36 pm

Thx SHARK & Prasa2004.

Better to keep an eye with next commodity/aluminium cycle.

Once it traded above Rs. 25 too.

If we take the position at the correct time, definitely it will give good gain.

Will see.... :-w

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:38 am

Yes Edi.
Let us wait a bit more too collect.
price action is very important to monitor.
this week will give some clue.
i expect once bottomed out ALUM share price to consolidate until we see some improvement in world alum price and net earnings improve.

Exchange rate stabilization, passing of escalating alum price gradually, to see world alum price to stabilize around below 2000 and private credit growth and exports potential will lead its next wave.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Edmond » Thu Nov 23, 2017 4:22 pm

Good volume traded/trading around Rs.19.

ALUF too.

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby sashimaal » Thu Nov 23, 2017 5:14 pm

Pls omit metal stocks for a while
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:58 pm

sashimaal wrote:Pls omit metal stocks for a while

Thank you sashi for the advise.

tempted to start collecting around 19 and

possibly at around 18.50 as well.

i too dont see immediate turnaround though in terms of earnings.

but seeing after 24 tested and down to 19 back again, some good bargain in my opinion.

will collect more around tech reversal 18.50-18 :ympray:
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby sashimaal » Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:26 pm

Technically there may be opportunities for quick trades (only) if big players start enter again for LT.

However fundamentally the general situation will not be positive for the next few months unless new changes happens to capacity, cost, etc
https://www.investing.com/commodities/aluminum



SHARK wrote:
sashimaal wrote:Pls omit metal stocks for a while

Thank you sashi for the advise.

tempted to start collecting around 19 and

possibly at around 18.50 as well.

i too dont see immediate turnaround though in terms of earnings.

but seeing after 24 tested and down to 19 back again, some good bargain in my opinion.

will collect more around tech reversal 18.50-18 :ympray:
"Knowledge is being aware of what you can do. Wisdom is knowing when not to do it" - Brian Tracy

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Edmond » Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:40 pm

sashimaal wrote:Technically there may be opportunities for quick trades (only) if big players start enter again for LT.

However fundamentally the general situation will not be positive for the next few months unless new changes happens to capacity, cost, etc
https://www.investing.com/commodities/aluminum



SHARK wrote:
sashimaal wrote:Pls omit metal stocks for a while

Thank you sashi for the advise.

tempted to start collecting around 19 and

possibly at around 18.50 as well.

i too dont see immediate turnaround though in terms of earnings.

but seeing after 24 tested and down to 19 back again, some good bargain in my opinion.

will collect more around tech reversal 18.50-18 :ympray:


Thx Sash for the information, really appreciate.

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:16 pm

alum.png
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:32 pm

is 18.50 giving support as we highlighted earlier. reports not out and price hovering 18,5
coupled with panic sell and macd in extreme positive, opportunity out there for technical buy,
watch macd,rsi and fib for accumalation for a LT opportunity
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:32 pm

holding its ground at 18.5 .... dec qtr results will further test and confirm its effectiveness.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:42 pm

Should be a worthwhile exercise to analyze the pros and cons ahead of this counter.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:28 pm

some will be cautious due to world metal price rise, others will discount this with LT prospects. the question would be the removal of negative list in the years ahead, but that would be long term issue. if i remember vaguely PM has given 5 years time for the local players to up their game to go international.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:10 am

ALUM seems got a good support around 17-18 level. Is this the bottom for a trader.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Shadow walker » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:46 am

Blue Whale wrote:ALUM seems got a good support around 17-18 level. Is this the bottom for a trader.



Wait for the results... :-bd
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:06 am

We can have a view on the results. It should not be an encouraging one but a fundamental stock has a level to fall and beyond that it won't fall unless the market crashing out. That is why we need to identify a good support level for a good trade.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:10 pm

alum becoming evermore attractive around below 18.
can this come a little bit lower towards 17 as it tantalizingly settling above 15 support
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:12 pm

alum will have to first establish its support base. and then form a consolidation pattern before next movement
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