ALUM Community

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SHARK
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:47 am

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:49 am

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby prasa2004 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:02 pm

Trump tarrif on steel/alum has elevated the threat of supply glut and dumping of produce by countries like China. Already Indonesia and Philipines expressed concern. Need to watch this will result cheap imports on SL way and ALUM/ALUF/LALU can capitalizse

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:12 pm

17Rs is good to Buy ...... TEC members will reap the benefits.

Not many interested in SHL when it was trading 12 +.....
And we talk of RI coming above SHL trading price then.

And now SHL gave 100% gain.

I remember recommending to one of our members who is no longer into equity and in our forum. he had qty bought, but sold off all at a possible loss.

this is where patience becomes a virtue but difficult to practice.

In regard to ALUM, lets buy at 17 and wait for a average point 16-15 if comes our ways.

need to make most out of the opportunities that come your way.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:38 pm

17 to 16.50 buying is still valid with forward PER multiple clocking 15+
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:06 am

SHARK wrote:17 to 16.50 buying is still valid with forward PER multiple clocking 15+
with dividends and bargain buys alum moved to 18 :) whats next. :-?
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:45 pm

Is it purely a dividend play or what we have seen for the recent past is is technical bottom :-?
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:09 pm

nice appreciation 16.5 to touching 18
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:57 pm

alum.png


Profit margin errosions, leverage and assets turnover impacts ROE over the years.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:55 am

Blue Whale wrote:Around 17/- should be a good support level.


Came to 18/- with good volumes.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:01 am

We all know aluminum prices and recent acquisitions impacted alum performance. IPO price was 14 and alum has given opportunity to earn gains over the years. Let's see if alum is providing another opportunity in the same lines around 17
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:50 am

ST i see ALUM movement limited between 17-18 range or a max of 20. with improved numbers we may see higher gains.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:01 am

bs1.png


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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:02 am

is1.png


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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:21 pm

Trend is intact. So keep an eye on COGS. The floor is 16.50
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Nemo » Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:31 pm

How do we keep an eye on COGS?

Appreciate your valuable input Shark! :)

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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:05 pm

Our friends in TEC updating on regular basis the world alum prices courtesy of Investing.com
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:54 pm

So alum seem to have a 4 months inventory processing period. Meaning their inventory stays a period of 115 days as per my analysis. Based on the cycle we can get an idea about the impact. If the hike in alum stays longer then it could affect unless they are able to pass on at least part of the increase. Further their Gross Margin has been staying around 30% throughout.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:15 pm

Blue Whale wrote:Lot of issues can be seen. The revenue stagnation and raw material cost can be explained. But how you can explain the drastic increase in overheads and finance cost. Looks like the management has messed it up.

Not only the COGS that we need to worry if anyone see it openly. [-x
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby SHARK » Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:59 pm

I dont think ALUM will drop below IPO price.

We have got a Support previously tested 16-16.5

Those looking for new buying ... these are the levels we should look.

Well managed companies will come off winners. So i always consider there is opportunity for all.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:24 pm

The below simple image can tell a big story. Hope I don't need to elaborate. The question is whether ALUM will be able to improve in Q1 18 than the Q4 17. I have a big question mark. Current PER as well as PBV are also questionable. Members to think and act.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Shadow walker » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:03 pm

Blue Whale wrote:The below simple image can tell a big story. Hope I don't need to elaborate. The question is whether ALUM will be able to improve in Q1 18 than the Q4 17. I have a big question mark. Current PER as well as PBV are also questionable. Members to think and act.



Not only raw material cost, Import cost also rising due to devaluvation of RS.. USD and EUR now at 52 wks high.. :-B


Annual report 2016

""The relatively stable or favourable exchange rates will
create a positive infl uence on our business. But most of our imports are denominated in US dollars and Euros of which only Euro was relatively stable. The US Dollar rate, which was Rs.147.23 at the beginning of the year, closed at Rs. 153.91 at the end of the fi nancial year 2017. This signifi cant depreciation (4.5%) of our main currency made the import material prices more expensive for the company.""



EUR chart ..

Image
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:53 am

So can we see more discounts for this counter with the Q1 report release or we see a serious turnaround with some improvements in key KPIs.
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby Shadow walker » Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:46 am

Blue Whale wrote:So can we see more discounts for this counter with the Q1 report release or we see a serious turnaround with some improvements in key KPIs.



Some broker huts promoting ALUM these days.. :D :D
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Re: ALUM Community

Postby lukedesilva » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:17 am

Thats crazy


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