CFIN Community

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby PATHFINDER » Fri May 05, 2017 1:51 pm

Has anybody noted my comment?
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Blue Whale » Fri May 05, 2017 1:59 pm

Why not and congratulations on reaching your first target. CFIN is one of those shares that neglected over the past two year period. When BFI sector is picking up all these shares should move up.

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Value » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:25 pm

CFIN is another value counter with similarities of ALLI.

Be watchful

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Contra » Sun Jul 09, 2017 3:26 am

Few badly beaten down finance companies including emerging ones as a result of prolonged bear market are due for their rally specifically those who have good numbers.
Company, stock market, politics and the economy are four different things.

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Value » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:04 pm

Dear Friends,

I am giving a strong buy call on CFIN which is trading at an unbelievable discount to its fair value considering the current market sentiment.

CFIN is the third largest finance company in Sri Lanka and has produced consistent results over the years, unlike many other fiance companies.

The graph below shows the profit after tax of CFIN over the six year period.
CFIN2.jpg

CFIN has kept growing without a break. This is incredible considering the difficulties the industry faced in different cycles.

The consent performance of CFIN has been due to uninterrupted growth in its loans and advances, as illustrated in the diagram below.
CFIN3.jpg

This is again very impressive performance considering the increased interest rates in the past two years and the government's intervention by means of reducing the maximum leasable values of vehicles.

Currently the share is trading at a very attractive price and I don't expect the price to stay at this level for a considerable time.

The below table summaries the key investor ratios of CFIN
CFIN1.png

So clearly CFIN has not been trading at a P/E of below 5 in the last six years except 2017. The ROE% of the company is a satisfying one. And when calculating the ROE% based on the market capitalization value, we arrive at a very attractive 25%+ rate which is a great one considering the size of CFIN's operation.

I did some calculation to see the fair value of CINV, which is produced below,
CFIN4.png

The justified PBV takes into account the ROE% of the company and cost of equity of the company.

CFIN has a minimum fair value of Rs. 130 in my opinion.

Recommendation


I recommend CFIN as a strong buy considering its current market valuation and,
1. Its consistent growth in terms of profits as well as loan balances.
2. Current capital adequacy ratio (30%) which is well above the regulatory requirement (10%)
3. CFIN has lower impairment rate considering the peers.
4. The interest rate has started to drop, which would give a boost to the growth rate of the company.
5. CFIN's strategy to bring in more loans into its asset portfolio in addition to leasing. This is to give an advantage of repricing the assets based on interest rate movements.

Disclaimer : Holding
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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:10 pm

Value wrote:Dear Friends,

I am giving a strong buy call on CFIN which is trading at an unbelievable discount to its fair value considering the current market sentiment.

CFIN is the third largest finance company in Sri Lanka and has produced consistent results over the years, unlike many other fiance companies.

The graph below shows the profit after tax of CFIN over the six year period. CFIN2.jpg
CFIN has kept growing without a break. This is incredible considering the difficulties the industry faced in different cycles.

The consent performance of CFIN has been due to uninterrupted growth in its loans and advances, as illustrated in the diagram below.CFIN3.jpg
This is again very impressive performance considering the increased interest rates in the past two years and the government's intervention by means of reducing the maximum leasable values of vehicles.

Currently the share is trading at a very attractive price and I don't expect the price to stay at this level for a considerable time.

The below table summaries the key investor ratios of CFINCFIN1.png
So clearly CFIN has not been trading at a P/E of below 5 in the last six years except 2017. The ROE% of the company is a satisfying one. And when calculating the ROE% based on the market capitalization value, we arrive at a very attractive 25%+ rate which is a great one considering the size of CFIN's operation.

I did some calculation to see the fair value of CINV, which is produced below,CFIN4.png
The justified PBV takes into account the ROE% of the company and cost of equity of the company.

CFIN has a minimum fair value of Rs. 130 in my opinion.

Recommendation


I recommend CFIN as a strong buy considering its current market valuation and,
1. Its consistent growth in terms of profits as well as loan balances.
2. Current capital adequacy ratio (30%) which is well above the regulatory requirement (10%)
3. CFIN has lower impairment rate considering the peers.
4. The interest rate has started to drop, which would give a boost to the growth rate of the company.
5. CFIN's strategy to bring in more loans into its asset portfolio in addition to leasing. This is to give an advantage of repricing the assets based on interest rate movements.

Disclaimer : Holding


This is a good analysis. CFIN is suffering from the momentum issue due to some reason. May be due to selling off by key shareholders recently.

What is the target earnings we can expect from CFIN for FY 2017/18.
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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Value » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:12 pm

I would say a fair growth rate of 15% to be witnessed in 2017/18

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby SHARK » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:17 pm

Dear Value Thanks for the analysis.
Why CINV in the analysis ?
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:20 pm

Should be a printing mistake ne :D
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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Value » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:20 pm

SHARK wrote:Dear Value Thanks for the analysis.
Why CINV in the analysis ?


Oops, the heading should be CFIN in the last attachment

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Value » Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:03 pm

Seems not many are interested...

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby sashimaal » Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:22 pm

Thanks Value for the analysis. Surely CFIN is a good share.

Issue with CFIN is with the shareholding. It has not moved up properly for many a year. There has been no one to do so.
Recently also there was some big selling (Arjun A's company). Maybe the selling is over. But still not in the favour of any market mover :(
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Re: CFIN Community

Postby topcat » Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:25 pm

Another super analysis frm value \m/
"Keep winners, Sell loosers"

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby PATHFINDER » Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:28 pm

Valuable analysis from Value :ymhug:
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Value » Mon Jul 10, 2017 6:49 pm

sashimaal wrote:Thanks Value for the analysis. Surely CFIN is a good share.

Issue with CFIN is with the shareholding. It has not moved up properly for many a year. There has been no one to do so.
Recently also there was some big selling (Arjun A's company). Maybe the selling is over. But still not in the favour of any market mover :(


Thanks Sash for the feedback. I noticed the issue with the shareholding. However the P/E has comedown below 5 in 2017 only.

What I believe is that, the situation cannot prevail for a prolonged period due to the good rate of growth of the company coupled with its attractive ROE%.

Could see few investment trusts to have taken part in shareholding. Will they let it come down further? :)

At the current price, down side risk is very much limited IMO. And if approached with MT/LT view, this is a definite buy.

I discovered the value of RICH at the beginning of this year and made RICH my largest shareholding with 28% allocation of portfolio. I see CFIN in the likes RICH.

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby PATHFINDER » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:05 pm

Value wrote:
I discovered the value of RICH at the beginning of this year and made RICH my largest shareholding with 28% allocation of portfolio. I see CFIN in the likes RICH.


RICH was a good call Value .
But 28% is too much for a single counter I think.
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Re: CFIN Community

Postby PATHFINDER » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:10 pm

Technically CFIN is on a bearish trend.But 86-89 has a good support.
For MT patience investor this price range is good for collection.
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby sashimaal » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:39 pm

Yes Value. Let's hope the new shareholders coming in would be able to take CFIN to where it deserve.


Value wrote:
sashimaal wrote:Thanks Value for the analysis. Surely CFIN is a good share.

Issue with CFIN is with the shareholding. It has not moved up properly for many a year. There has been no one to do so.
Recently also there was some big selling (Arjun A's company). Maybe the selling is over. But still not in the favour of any market mover :(


Thanks Sash for the feedback. I noticed the issue with the shareholding. However the P/E has comedown below 5 in 2017 only.

What I believe is that, the situation cannot prevail for a prolonged period due to the good rate of growth of the company coupled with its attractive ROE%.

Could see few investment trusts to have taken part in shareholding. Will they let it come down further? :)

At the current price, down side risk is very much limited IMO. And if approached with MT/LT view, this is a definite buy.

I discovered the value of RICH at the beginning of this year and made RICH my largest shareholding with 28% allocation of portfolio. I see CFIN in the likes RICH.
"Knowledge is being aware of what you can do. Wisdom is knowing when not to do it" - Brian Tracy

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Value » Mon Jul 10, 2017 7:54 pm

PATHFINDER wrote:
Value wrote:
I discovered the value of RICH at the beginning of this year and made RICH my largest shareholding with 28% allocation of portfolio. I see CFIN in the likes RICH.


RICH was a good call Value .
But 28% is too much for a single counter I think.


I used to have 5 to 6 counters max. Now around 8

Thanks for the Advice...will take it :)

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Shadow walker » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:04 pm

Value wrote:Seems not many are interested...


Good analysis value... :-bd
Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time .. ;)


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Re: CFIN Community

Postby topcat » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:14 pm

Value wrote:
PATHFINDER wrote:
Value wrote:
I discovered the value of RICH at the beginning of this year and made RICH my largest shareholding with 28% allocation of portfolio. I see CFIN in the likes RICH.


RICH was a good call Value .
But 28% is too much for a single counter I think.


I used to have 5 to 6 counters max. Now around 8

Thanks for the Advice...will take it :)

I like your way value. You should hv bought 50% rich.. :D
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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Investor from 1985 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:18 pm

:)) .
Attitude determines how well you do it. :)

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Value » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:23 pm

Investor from 1985 wrote::)) .


I know you go with 2 to 3 counters max...

Am i correct?

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Investor from 1985 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:39 pm

To get it right CFIN, Value need to find out fundamentally , Shareholder's disposing issues. .....?

PF: Thats the way it works for 2017 first half(.its gone now ) not for 2nd half, I'm with 13 at the moment. still not done. Obviously Funds matter's
I'm not fan of % to % , I'm looking for amounts thats my priorities.

For RICH TC correct ( but ur confidence ?) Good for u ..... :ympeace:
Attitude determines how well you do it. :)

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Re: CFIN Community

Postby Value » Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:49 pm

Investor from 1985 wrote:To get it right CFIN, Value need to find out fundamentally , Shareholder's disposing issues. .....?

PF: Thats the way it works for 2017 first half(.its gone now ) not for 2nd half, I'm with 13 at the moment. still not done. Obviously Funds matter's
I'm not fan of % to % , I'm looking for amounts thats my priorities.

For RICH TC correct ( but ur confidence ?) Good for u ..... :ympeace:


I consider the shareholder disposal a ST issue...

The selling is really small in terms of Volumes...let's say a max of 10 Mn shares. Today 2.2 Mn traded..

And in Q1 2017/18, 3.8 Mn shares traded.


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