GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

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GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby stocks hunter » Tue Aug 04, 2015 11:37 pm

The above mentioned three stocks represents poultry sector or categorized as poultry stocks in CSE. We have already discussed very extensively before anybody else in this forum about the present and the future of the poultry sector/Group in Sri lanka. The following threads carry all the details or comprehensive study about the poultry sector/shares in CSE.

01 GRAN - .viewtopic.php?f=11&t=704

02.TAFL - viewtopic.php?f=11&t=705

03.BFL - viewtopic.php?f=11&t=552

04.viewtopic.php?f=3&t=825&p=7648&hilit=MOST+VALUED#p7648

When looking at the 5 year chart pattern and the 10 year chart patterns of the above three stocks it is very clear the movement of these three stocks in the history, and at present are similar to each other.We saw a massive price hike in poultry stocks in FY 2010/2011 period due to superior profits they produced.

At present the poultry sector is more stronger than in FY 2010/2011 due to obvious reasons we have already discussed in above threads.That doesn't mean or guarantee that the present run in the poultry stocks should go beyond the FY2010/2011 prices. But what is important is to identify in what stage we are in at present.

This may only be the initial stage of the next poultry boom. All the three companies have started to report improved profits in their last Q (march Q 2015)

GRAN - Rs201,892 profit for the march Q15 with an EPS of Rs2.80,which gives annualized EPS of Rs11.2

TAFL - Rs78,953 profit for the march Q15 with an EPS of Rs3.35,which gives annualized EPS of Rs13.4

BFL - Rs99,853 profit for the march Q15 with an EPS of Rs5.93,which gives annualized EPS of Rs23.72

Hence if they continue to report profits in future quarters we will be in a position to witness another great run in poultry stocks in the future. Prediction of many experts in the sector is that the all the companies should produce better results than the previous quarter in the upcoming June quarter 2015.

Apart from that there is a strong belief that a bull run in a particular stock will happen in every five year interval or history is repeating in every 5 years. If it is the case we have already witnessed a great poultry run in FY2010/2011 and the next grand run is due in FY2015/2016.

However the ground situation is ready for the history to repeat itself once again.

When we examine the charts it is very clear that BFL continuously pay dividends after FY2008 in good times as well as bad times. Non of above companies have announce a bonus issue/sub division/ or a scrip issue. They have not come up with any rights issues as well for the last 10 year period. It is very unlikely about any rights issues since all these three companies have billions of rupees as retained earnings with them.

GRAN - Rs2.0bn as retained earnings.

TAFL - Rs551mn as retained earnings.

BFL - Rs1.4bn as retained earnings.

Five year charts and ten year charts very clearly indicates us that we are still at the beginning of the current poultry run.

GRAN - 60mn share capital

TAFL - 23mn share capital

BFL - 16mn share capital



Note - Pl do your home work and consult your broker before doing any action. This is only my views and have publish my views only for sharing purpose.
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby SHARK » Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:26 am

Thanks SH :D
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby SMR08 » Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:30 am

Well presented. Tks SH :)

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby IOSirisena » Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:40 am

Excellent early bird, SH

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby Edmond » Wed Aug 05, 2015 4:33 am

Thanks :ymhug: SH for continues & details information.

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby sashimaal » Wed Aug 05, 2015 6:08 am

Yes thanks SH and Contra for the great work in identifying these shares and for the continued coverage of them ..
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby stocks hunter » Wed Aug 05, 2015 7:22 am

Yes apart from the other favorable ground conditions for the sector growth which are better than in FY2010/2011 period, there are many significant developments that had happened within the three companies itself to get the maximum out of the synergy effect in order to continuous development,to maximize the share holder value and to mitigate the risk factors involved in.

BFL -

Bairaha Farms PLC (BFPLC) is the holding company and it directly owns and manages a large-scale state-of-the-art chicken processing factory. It also owns and operates three modern breeder farms and provides essential Eliza and Bacteriological Laboratory Services both to Bairaha Group
and the poultry industry

subsidiary companies.

01.Hill Country Farms Ltd.

Hill Country Farms Ltd. operates two large-scale breeder farms and a hatchery for the production of broiler day-old chicks

02.Bairaha Foods (Pvt) Ltd.

Bairaha Foods (Pvt) Ltd. is engaged in the manufacture of a range of value-added, pre-cooked meat products.

03.Siyane Farms Ltd.

Its principal activity is breeding of poultry for the production of broiler day-old chicks.

04.Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd.

Its principal activity is the operation of a broiler breeder grandparent farm and hatchery for the production of broiler breeder parent chicks.
The eight companies named below are engaged in providing support services to the Group by purchasing and then leasing agricultural lands to it for setting up poultry projects:

*BF Lands Development Ltd.
*HCF Land Development Ltd.
*Lanka Land Development Ltd.
*Rajarata Land Development Ltd.
*Cultural Triangle Land Development Ltd.
*Windsor Real Estate Ltd.
*Foster Real Estate Ltd.
*Regency Real Estate Ltd

05.Bairaha Trading (Pvt) Ltd.

Our Subsidiary Company, Bairaha Trading (Pvt) Ltd., is the trading arm of the Group. Bairaha has been the authorised local distributor for ‘Antec’ range of disinfectants from DuPont for many years, and these products have been distributed and marketed by this company.

06.Nature’s Best Industry Ltd.

This company owns and runs a state-of-the art broiler farm. It being a BOI-approved company, enjoys a 10 years tax holiday and after the expiry of this tax holiday, it will be entitled for another 2 years concessionary tax rate of 10%. As at today, the project is almost 80% completed and it has become a vital segment of our business.

07. The feed mill factory - Which will play a major role once this is comes in to operation during FY15 in order to minimize the cost factor in their farms.

GRAN -

CGE is the largest operator in the poultry industry of Sri Lanka, establishing six subsidiary companies operating not only in the field of poultry, but also offering products and services in diverse fields. CGE and the companies under its umbrella manufacture and distribute a wide range of feeds under the "PRIMA" and "FARMERS' CHOICE" brands. They also operate poultry and hatchery breeder farms, commercial poultry and livestock farms. They also engage in the processing, packaging and retailing of poultry and other meat products, the import and sale of poultry equipment, veterinary products, produce aqua feed and provide a state-of-the-art laboratory and consultancy service to customers and farmers throughout the Island.

Ceylon Grain Elevators PLC subsidiary companies are :

• Three Acre Farms PLC

• Millennium Multibreeder Farms (Private) Limited

• Ceylon Pioneer Poultry Breeders Limited

• Ceylon Livestock and Agrobusiness Services (Private) Limited

• Ceylon Warehouse Complex (Private) Limited

• Ceylon Aquatech (Private) Limited

Ceylon Grain Elevators PLC associate company is:

• Prima Management Services (Private) Limited


TAFL -

The main business of the Company is the selective breeding, hatching and sale of commercial Day Old Chicks, both broiler (for chicken meat) and layer (for the production of table eggs) and commercial broiler farming.

The Company has two wholly-owned subsidiaries,

01.Ceylon Pioneer Poultry Breeders Limited (CPPBL) - which undertakes grand parent farm operations

02.Millennium Multibreeder Farms (Private) Limited (MMF) - which employees advanced technology farming. The grand parent poultry farm imports grand parent Day Old Chicks and after careful high-technology breeding, vaccination, feeding and selection will hatch fertilized eggs after 6 months which when hatched will give rise to parent Day Old Chicks. TAF holds the valuable sole franchise for “INDIAN RIVER” parent stock breed. TAF also hold the franchise in Sri Lanka for “HY-LINE” breeds of commercial layers.

Another significant achievement for the TAF Group is that as at the end of the calendar year, it owned on a freehold basis a total land extent of 289 acres with a total cost in the books of LKR 295 Million. The Directors have sanctioned the expansion of the breeder farms and Management are constantly on the look-out for suitable land for this purpose

Just see how big these three companies are as of today. Many of these major developments took place after FY2009.

Source - AR of three companies.

(Do your home work or consult a knowledgeable person/stock broker before doing anything)

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby Shadow walker » Wed Aug 05, 2015 8:37 am

thanks Sh
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby SHARK » Wed Aug 05, 2015 8:52 am

Thanks a lot SH :)
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby SMR08 » Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:39 am

Tks a lot SH :)

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby Shadow walker » Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:21 am

70 PASSED.. just a 3 minutes for 80000 selling order at 70
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby SMR08 » Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:49 am

:D look at the way these three shares appreciate :-o

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby Contra » Wed Aug 05, 2015 1:48 pm

Thank you SH for your time and effort for analyzing above stocks.

Poultry group is one of the new winning bull groups in the market. If we analyse their strong pattern we can get some idea about it.

Why we should see more upside potential for poultry stocks?

It is due to following reasons

•Great value
•Strong outlook in their industry
•Higher tourists numbers
•Lower raw material prices
•Opportunities for poultry products in the regional market
•New development in the global poultry world
•Strong demand for poultry products
•Strong bullish pattern and momentum

In winning stocks we can see breaking their 52 weeks high again and again. After sometimes I am seeing some strong bullish pattern in poultry stocks. Investors are continually accumulating these stocks now.

I think on percentage wise, TAFL could give the highest return during next eight to 18 months. It has a strong momentum now. Other two BFL and GRAN also will follow it. We will wait and see.

Please do home work before buying and selling stocks. If we do home work we will not miss some great winning stocks and we will not make mistakes.
Last edited by Contra on Wed Aug 05, 2015 2:48 pm, edited 12 times in total.
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby siga » Wed Aug 05, 2015 1:58 pm

Thank you very much SH :-* :-*

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby SMR08 » Wed Aug 05, 2015 3:54 pm

Dear Contra, can you pls explain what you mean by :

"•New development in the global poultry world" with an example

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby sbw » Wed Aug 05, 2015 7:54 pm

thanks SH

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby stocks hunter » Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:38 pm

This time the poultry run has some hidden secrets. Why I'm telling this is in FY2010/2011 the run was led by BFL and others followed it. But this time other two is leading and and BFL follows.

The charts below shows us that growth % of each share after the profits released in March Q 2015.

TAFL is leading the run with 89.8% growth in the share price which started from Rs50 levels followed by GRAN with a 85% growth starting from Rs40 levels and BFL is at the last position at present with only 43.47% growth in share price as at date starting from Rs115 levels. But BFL seems to be the strongest share in the group followed by TAFL and GRAN as per their earnings/fundamentals.

Hence it is very clear now BFL still has more upside potential (Minimum 80% growth in share price means as compared other two and still with the lowest growth ---- Rs115 * 80% = Rs92 + Rs115 = Rs207) followed by TAFL and GRAN.

* This is a simple comparison of price movement of three poultry sector shares - for your information only.

(Consult a stock broker/knowledgeable person before doing anything)
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby SHARK » Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:42 pm

BFL 207 means strong support @200
TAFL & GRAN could have supports around 100Rs ....

Lets Ride the wave ....... Hunter

All these 3 shares could be saying catch me if you can :D
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby stocks hunter » Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:23 am

Look at the future potential of BFL. Both these counters represents BEVERAGE FOOD AND TOBACCO sector of CSE. Just compare these two.

This is to share the information with you all only.

(Buying or selling decision is purely up to you. Consult your stock broker/knowledgeable person before doing anything)
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby SHARK » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:15 am

When compared with CCS, BFL could be a 3 bagger :D ...
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby SHARK » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:17 am

A Stock broker company has advised to sell CCS and book profits, as its CMP is way too high ....
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby Edmond » Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:57 am

Thanks all contributors.

With current poultry business favour environment (Raw material, Regional market opportunity, new development etc) we can expect good performance in future quarters.

Cheers.... :-w

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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby Contra » Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:48 pm

Livestock sector/feed sector has a new dimension. One thing I like to mention here. If we do more research on this sector we should be able to find some great opportunities. Can it be life time opportunity?
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby sashimaal » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:01 pm

Dear Contra, pls explain what you mean by "new dimension" .

Thanks
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Re: GRAN vs TAFL vs BFL - Is history going to repeat again?

Postby Contra » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:35 pm

This was one of the out of favour groups in 2014. What I meant mainly from new dimension and new development is: this sector is benefitting from both local and international factors now. It has become very interesting period for listed quality poultry companies. Egg prices are rocketing even in India. This is good time to do more research on this sector. Another factor according to global poultry analysts is that there could be shortage in poultry products in 2016 and 2017 in Asia due to restriction of genetic stock movement to Asian region such as Thailand and China. Netherland is one poultry winner in the current global poultry situation. Listed poultry companies in Sri-Lanka having synergy with foreign partners are also going to be some kind of winners.
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