CSE - ASI - The way forward

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby sashimaal » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:56 am

\m/
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:12 am

stocks hunter wrote:Can you all believe this?

From late nineties until April 30th 2003 ASI was at below 1000 mark.

The ASI journey started its upward direction with lots of obstacles in early part of year 2000 after the electing of new President Mrs. C.Kumaranathunga and ran up to the year 2005. During that period ASI came to very close to 2500 level mark.

We had lots of issues at that time as a country. We were fighting with world’s most brutal terrorist organization – the LTTE. We had to spend billions of rupees for the war and our main economic centers were targeted by the terrorists with an idea of bring down the nation’s economy.
We had the courage to face all these obstacles and to develop our country as well.

As the citizens of this country we had to face lots of economic challenges as high energy prices (fuel/electricity), low salaries, high interest rates, above all fear for life etc..etc…

Listed companies had to face very difficult time period due to the ongoing war, High energy costs, high interest rates, businesses had to limit to ¾ of the country due to the war, lots of extra payments etc…etc…

Mind you still ASI came to high as 2500 levels from low as 500 levels in 1998.

During this run up, ASI temporary came down in 2005 due to the 5th Presidential election which was held in late 2005 in this country. President Mahinda Rajapaksha came to the power as Sri Lanka’s 5th executive president from the election.

Market was expecting Mr.Ranil Wickramasinghe as the president and as result of that there was a temporary drop in ASI after the elections.ASI came down to 1900 levels from 2500 levels.

Then once again ASI started to climb up from early 2006 and went up to 3000 levels in the year 2007.

Still we as citizens of this country and the companies listed in CSE had to face same issues we had in the history and which were mentioned above, during this period as well. The main cause of these factors was the war.

In 2007 then Govt has decided to continue the war until end of it. We were lucky to have brave leaders in the caliber of Former president Mahinda Rajapaksha , Field marshal Sarath Fonseka and all of others who gave genuine support/scarifications to eradicate terrorism from this tiny island. We can’t underestimate the efforts taken by Mr.Ranil Wickramasinghe during his short period as the Prime minister of this country for the action taken to sideline the LTTE politically from the rest of the world as well.

ASI came down to 1500 levels from 3000 levels as a result of the war.

However just see how the investor community was confident about the war. They started to pick shares from late 2008 and continue to collect shares until end of the war. That is the risk we have to take as investors who are dealing with shares. Soon after the announcement of the death of the LTTE leader Prabakaran mkt was erupted like a volcano.

Mkt touched ASI 7800 level in February 2011.

From January 2008 until February 2011 CSE was a heaven to many. They never expected the heaven to come back on their heads until April 2012. Everything was happened within a very short period.

Why the hell heaven came back on our heads.

*In a share market individual share price appreciations had to supported by the fundamentals of that share from time to time. If not, we called it an overvalued share.

*There were around 200+ listed companies in CSE at that time and almost all the shares were trading in the overvalued territory after the year 2010.

*Many were expected mkt to reach ASI 5000 levels immediately after the war to full fill the long awaited vacuum. Because many shares were trading at massive discount prices during war period.

*Then come the manipulators to the scene. They took the ASI 5000 to ASI 7800 levels.

* How come the listed companies show improved profits to justify the fundamentals of the shares to match the increasing share prices within a very short period.

*Govt had to spend a lot of money to develop the country soon after the end of the war.

*Private credit expansion was skyrocketed.

*Bank’s had to increase the interest rates to curtail the credit growth. Interest rates were gone up to 25% levels in listed banks and around 36% in Non banks.

*Investors were allowed massive credits by the brokers. If you deposit Rs100, 000 many were allowed to purchase around Rs500, 000 – Rs800, 000 worth of shares. They had no plans or proper mechanism to control the credit growth in the industry.

*Then come the regulators to control the manipulators/manipulations in the mkt.

*Result was the heaven has come down to our own heads without knowing anything.

*As a result of that Mkt came down to ASI 4800 levels. Many shares were in oversold positions. Investors who blindly purchased over valued shares when the mkt was at ASI 7000 – 7500 levels were reluctant to buy undervalued over sold shares when the ASI was at 4800 levels.

That’s the Sri Lankan style.

At that time interest rates started to come down, speed of the credit growth slowed down, Regulator lifted several rules such as 10% price band in order to attract investors to the mkt.

Some companies started to report exceptional profits. Slowly but surely mkt once again started to climb up and ASI came to ASI 6463 Levels in May 2013 from ASI 4800 levels.

Even the technical corrections happened during this period caused panic among investors and as a result of that a tech correction due after reaching ASI 6463 ended up ASI at 5775 levels in November 2013.

After 2013 investors were little bit confident of the mkt behavior and started to pick up fundamentally sound undervalued shares.

Then come the presidential election fever to the mkt. ASI went up as 7670 in Jan 2015 came down to 6820 levels in March 2015. Mr.Maithreepala Sirisena has become the new president of this country from the elections on 08th of January 2015.

After absorbing the shock in March 2015 Mkt once again got the attention of bargain hunters and the result is ASI touching 7531 levels in Aug 2015.

After that again the uncertainty came to the mkt due the General elections which was held in Sep 17th 2015. From the general elections as promised by the New president and the Prime minister formed a national Govt for the first time in Sri lanka.

The past of the country and the CSE.

During the period under review ASI came to 7215 from ASI 798 levels reported in June 1997.


Sri lanka has successfully faced the uncertainty situation prevailed in the country due to the 30 year old civil war and the following Global financial crisis as well without any major economic setbacks as other countries in the world.

01.1997 Asian financial crisis

02.1998 Russian financial crisis

03.Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002)

04.Early 2000s recession - Dot-com bubble

05.Late-2000s Financial Crisis or the Late-2000s recession,

Including:

*2000s energy crisis

*Subprime mortgage crisis

*United States housing bubble and United States housing market correction

*2008–2012 Icelandic financial crisis

*2008–2010 Irish banking crisis

*Russian financial crisis of 2008–2009

*Automotive industry crisis of 2008–2010

*European sovereign debt crisis

06.Greek government-debt crisis

07.2014 Russian financial crisis

We know how to handle uncertain situation really well.

What is certain to CSE and to Sri lanka is the Uncertainty.


The present situation of the Country and CSE.


*Sri lanka has successfully eradicated the 30 year old civil war prevailed in this country.

* People of this country have selected a new president and a prime minister to run this country with good governance and without corruptions.

*Sri lanka has once again getting the Global recognition what was lacking for the past couple of years. As a result of that USA has already allowed GSP+ facility for our exports to that country. We are expecting other European nations to follow on.

*USA has given the assurance to back Sri lanka in the forth coming HR council meeting.

*We have our president from one party and Prime minister from another party. Further we have Opposition leader who is representing Northern Province and chief opposition whip from another party. A new political culture is developing in the country and the leaders of many countries have expressed their happiness for what is happening in Sri lanka right now.

*Rupee devaluation has supported exporters very much and it is encouraging foreigners as well for direct investments to Sri lanka. Rupee devaluation may lead to reduce the import which is again the need of the hour.

*Bank interest rates are at rock bottom levels. All most all the top companies are enjoying credit facilities at rates well below 9.0% - 10% now, which were around 14% – 16%, couple of years back.

*We have many listed companies in CSE which are trading attractive price levels. Many fundamentally sound future growth stocks are available in the mkt now. You get loads of stocks where PE ratio is well below 10 and the PBV is below 2 or trading below NAV.

*Stock brokers have a good mechanism to control credit in the mkt. No more un controlled credit offered to the clients by the brokers. Credit purchases are limited in the mkt now.

*Cheap energy cost to boost the bottom line of listed companies. (Low fuel cost, low electricity costs)

*Many commodities are rock bottom levels in the world mkt. – (Crude oil, Copper,Alluminium,Iron,Maize,Soya bean etc…etc…)

Identify the value of CSE and the listed shares in CSE. Short term fluctuations are not the end of CSE. These are the strong foundations to the longer term growth of CSE.

If ASI managed to reach 7215 levels with all these issues mentioned here in the past, there are no barriers ASI to reach 8000 – 10000 levels in near future since the country has successfully over come almost every challenges it has faced in the past. Now we have very less challenges when compared with our past. The latest issue is the 2015 Chinese stock market crash. Since we have no large scale direct exports to china the impact from the China mkt down fall is limited to us. Further any global economic down fall will be a positive message to Sri lanka since we are doing large scale imports than exports.

Hence think twice. Do not let go away this golden opportunity.Don't search or look at any uncertainties at this juncture since we are in a very strong footing as a country when compared with the past.

(This is only my personnel view for sharing with everybody – This is not a buy, sell or hold advice of shares since I’m also an investor in CSE)


Hi friends,

Due to manipulators and the panic investors with zero knowledge in share trading ASI is here 6119 levels as at last trading day.

Do you think that ASI should stay at these levels or go up/down.

*At first this should not happen. ASI should be in 6800 - 7200 levels as per my assumptions.But thanks to manipulators we are far behind still.

*Country is doing well as well as it's economy.But the Govt is not getting enough publicity for the good things they are doing. Again if you don't expect short cuts this should be the way the matured persons behave. (I'm not telling Govt is 100% correct)

*All most all the listed companies are doing well.

*Nothing to worry since international community is now behind us.(But don't expect everything to do by them for us)

*Look for high DY companies. coz country is expecting an int rate reduction very soon in near future.

*Many companies are trading very attractive levels.

*Don't go by emotions. Talk to your heart/head/brain.

*Don't expect mkt to fall everyday. That will never happen.

*If you feel fear/panic - That's the time intelligent investors are ready for buying.....

Have a good day......

\m/

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby PAT » Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:19 am

Happy to see you SH after a while....

Good advice as always...... :-bd
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:50 am

Yes. Good explanation and again reminds me the fact that our investors (99%) have not practice the game of patience.

Warren Buffet says stock market is a tool where wealth is transferred from impatient to patient investors. Be calm be cool be wise so that you will never ever go wrong in stock market investments in any country.
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby topcat » Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:53 am

Thanks SH. Actually whr were u frnd?
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Hawk Eye » Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:39 am

Bring the money robbed from people back to people..

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Shadow walker » Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:45 am

hawk eye wrote:Bring the money robbed from people back to people..


:D ^:)^
Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time .. ;)


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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby dhanurrox » Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:48 am

for this to go forward we need to apply a modulus sign.

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby topcat » Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:59 am

hawk eye wrote:Bring the money robbed from people back to people..

And stop robbing now :-q
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:47 am

ASPI is possibly heading to a 50+ point decline today. The first half century for new year 2017.
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:17 pm

The half century is scored. Well done Mr.Bear :ymhug:
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby SHARK » Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:25 pm

TJL AEL and ALUM are good counters ......
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Xmart » Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:34 pm

Rain, rain go away
Little Johnny wants to play :)

we are nearing the crucial support. tight your belts folks. it will be a rocket journey when we test the support. or else, free fall till 5750! i would expect a rocket journey.
Feed The Bull.. Hunt The Bear..

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby topcat » Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:42 pm

Xmart wrote:Rain, rain go away
Little Johnny wants to play :)

we are nearing the crucial support. tight your belts folks. it will be a rocket journey when we test the support. or else, free fall till 5750! i would expect a rocket journey.

Hoping a technical bounce.. :ymhug:
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby PAT » Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:07 pm

Blue Whale wrote:ASPI is possibly heading to a 50+ point decline today. The first half century for new year 2017.



Done.......

51+ points down so far
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:53 pm

Dividend season is around the corner. Concentrate on high dividends/ DY companies.

How about HEXP?

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby PAT » Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:43 pm

stocks hunter wrote:Dividend season is around the corner. Concentrate on high dividends/ DY companies.

How about HEXP?


If the mgt want, they can give good dividend this time...... :)
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby topcat » Wed Feb 08, 2017 5:40 am

PAT wrote:
stocks hunter wrote:Dividend season is around the corner. Concentrate on high dividends/ DY companies.

How about HEXP?


If the mgt want, they can give good dividend this time...... :)

Ha haa.. hexp are with full surprises all the way .. We will see it's next drama in coming months ;)
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:47 am

ASPI looks entered into a bull territory. I can see it has more legs to move towards 6,300 by this month end. Keep your fingers crossed and focus on fundamentally strong bargain counters.
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:01 am

ASPI is in the verge of entering into bear territory after a brief stay in bull territory. Today up move or down move to confirm the trend.
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby newer1 » Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:17 am

I think today mkt may stay in green side. CTC & tjl leading.ASI has already broken resistant line in falling wedge pattern.
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:40 am

Market displays weak signals of movement. Activity levels too very thin. Chances are towards a RED END for the day. :(
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:52 am

So far the market green has come from Nestle price movement with their dividend announcement. If not for that market would have been already red. JKH, DFCC, MELS, CFIN, etc are already down.
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stockback » Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:13 pm

Blue Whale wrote:So far the market green has come from Nestle price movement with their dividend announcement. If not for that market would have been already red. JKH, DFCC, MELS, CFIN, etc are already down.



that is a trick to collect long term investors.

after collecting some quantity and then does not show interest. again they will start after fall....

I am sure foreign collection will continue....

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:50 pm

stockback wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:So far the market green has come from Nestle price movement with their dividend announcement. If not for that market would have been already red. JKH, DFCC, MELS, CFIN, etc are already down.



that is a trick to collect long term investors.

after collecting some quantity and then does not show interest. again they will start after fall....

I am sure foreign collection will continue....


Too many tricks can trash the sentiment dear :D
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