CSE - ASI - The way forward

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby PAT » Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:30 pm

Thanks BW for the chart.........

Today market end green, so where are we heading............ :-?
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:24 am

PAT wrote:Thanks BW for the chart.........

Today market end green, so where are we heading............ :-?


Sentiments are weak PAT. I am expecting a journey to South :-?
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby NC+ » Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:30 am

Blue Whale wrote:
PAT wrote:Thanks BW for the chart.........

Today market end green, so where are we heading............ :-?


Sentiments are weak PAT. I am expecting a journey to South :-?

I expect journey to East.. =))
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby PAT » Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:42 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
PAT wrote:Thanks BW for the chart.........

Today market end green, so where are we heading............ :-?


Sentiments are weak PAT. I am expecting a journey to South :-?


So far green........., let's see next few days/ weeks........
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby NC+ » Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:15 pm

Its moving to east with low turnover, probably may expecting a rate hike..
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:30 pm

NC+ wrote:Its moving to east with low turnover, probably may expecting a rate hike..

Boss today also NEST is giving the jack support. If not red. Look at JKH.
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby future123 » Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:42 pm

I don't see any big uptrend as long as UNP is in power and Ranil is in charge of SEC and TK acts as chief of SEC. Negative vibration for the country as a whole and for the stock market.

ASPI might swing between 5700 to 6700 and maximum around 7200 points. There will be some selected stock runs like CCS, REXP, TJL or REGN but overall it would be low investor confidence.

This is only my personal opinion and I told this 2 years and many cursed me till I die when ASPI was 7300 points and still I have not changed my opinion. I may be wrong sometimes and therefore please don't criticize or curse me guys.

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stockback » Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:10 pm

are we in parabolic arc?

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby SHARK » Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:31 pm

if we add the RSI and the MACD on a weekly chart we might be able to get some idea ne :)
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Mon May 01, 2017 10:04 am

Happy to see ASI is back on track. All what has happened during last two years was organized push down of the mkt to destroy the sentiment by various groups and the gangsters have won the battle up to some extent.

However foreigners having identified the value of lankan stocks better than locals got the chance to grab super shares at unbelievable low prices to their baskets.

Net foreign inflow now reported a record inflow so far for this year.

As SHARK,PATH & other experts said we should be lucky enough to see a good performing mkt for 2017.

All the best.

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby topcat » Mon May 01, 2017 10:07 am

stocks hunter wrote:Happy to see ASI is back on track. All what has happened during last two years was organized push down of the mkt to destroy the sentiment by various groups and the gangsters have won the battle up to some extent.

However foreigners having identified the value of lankan stocks better than locals got the chance to grab super shares at unbelievable low prices to their baskets.

Net foreign inflow now reported a record inflow so far for this year.

As SHARK,PATH & other experts said we should be lucky enough to see a good performing mkt for 2017.

All the best.

\m/
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Sat May 06, 2017 3:51 pm

YTD return offered by some companies listed in CSE as at Friday - 05/05/2017.

List includes YTD - R 20% or more than that.

Many plantation shares in the list, is good for the country since their main income comes from exporting commodities. Will they managed to continue that trend in future is the thousand dollar question?.

LAMB has given a killing return for those who not agreed to transfer their holding CARG.

:)

source - http://www.ft.com
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby topcat » Sat May 06, 2017 4:01 pm

Thanks SH :-bd
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby PAT » Sun May 07, 2017 9:42 pm

Thanks SH.......
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Rapaport » Mon May 08, 2017 5:28 pm

Sri Lanka Treasuries yields fall

ECONOMYNEXT – Yields on Sri Lankan Treasury Bills fell at an auction Monday with the Public Debt Department of the Central Bank not offering the shortest tenor bills of three months.

The yield on the six month bills fell 10 basis points to 10.43% from last week while the yield on the one year bill fell 10 basis points to 10.73%, a statement said.

The public debt department got bids worth Rs77.7 billion and accepted bids worth Rs30.5 billion.
(COLOMBO, May 08, 2017)

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby NC+ » Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:10 pm

ASI hourly outlook
Can it break 6700 ?
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:16 pm

CSE has now become one of very cheap mkts in the region. Can expect good times for sri lankan equities in coming weeks,months & years since we are still at the bottom levels.

:ymhug:
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:27 pm

Can expect a good ASI uptrend if quarterly reports deliver much needed boost for the run. Plantations should report better earnings QoQ & YoY to meet the expectations of all investor community. Other sectors should follow plantations.

What ever said & done this is a good lesson for the pundits who were against the plantation sector from the beginning. They should learn that it's the plantation sector that uplift the positive investor sentiment this time.

Cheers...... & long way to go...

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby PAT » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:35 pm

stocks hunter wrote:Can expect a good ASI uptrend if quarterly reports deliver much needed boost for the run. Plantations should report better earnings QoQ & YoY to meet the expectations of all investor community. Other sectors should follow plantations.

What ever said & done this is a good lesson for the pundits who were against the plantation sector from the beginning. They should learn that it's the plantation sector that uplift the positive investor sentiment this time.

Cheers...... & long way to go...


well said SH....... :-bd
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Mon Oct 30, 2017 8:12 am

ASPI rebounds to push past 6,600 levels

The Colombo Bourse continued its upward momentum as the ASPI increased by 40.21 points (or +0.61%) to close at 6,612.91 points, while the S&P SL20 Index also increased by 41.08 points (or +1.07%) to close at 3,872.50 points.

Sampath Bank was the highest contributor to the week’s turnover value, contributing Rs 0.88 Bn or 21.16% of total turnover value. Ceylon Cold Stores followed suit, accounting for 11.38% of turnover (value of Rs 0.47 Bn) while JKH contributed Rs 0.36 Bn to account for 8.75% of the week’s turnover.

Total turnover value amounted to Rs 4.17 Bn (cf. last week’s value of Rs 3.93 Bn), while daily average turnover value amounted to Rs 0.83 Bn (-15.09% W-o-W) compared to last week’s average of Rs 0.98 Bn. Market capitalization meanwhile, increased by 0.87% W-o-W (or Rs 25.89 Bn) to Rs 3,006.73 Bn cf. Rs 2,980.84 Bn last week.

Liquidity (in Value Terms)

The Banking, Finance and Insurance Sector was the highest contributor to the week’s total turnover value, accounting for 38.70% (or Rs 1.61 Bn) of market turnover. Sector turnover was driven primarily by Sampath Bank, Central Finance, HNB & Orient Finance which accounted for 76.54% of the sector’s total turnover.

The Diversified Sector meanwhile accounted for 17.91% (or Rs 0.75 Bn) of the total turnover value with turnover driven primarily by JKH and Hemas Holdings which accounted for 79.11% of the sector turnover. The Beverage, Food and Tobacco Sector was also amongst the top sectorial contributors, contributing 12.70% (or Rs 0.53 Bn) to the market driven by Ceylon Cold Stores which accounted for 89.65% of the sector turnover.

Liquidity (in Volume Terms)

The Banking, Finance and Insurance sector dominated the market in terms of share volume, accounting for 31.43% (or 38.32 Mn shares) of total volume, with a value contribution of Rs 1.61 Bn.

The Diversified sector followed suit, adding 15.21% to total turnover volume as 18.54 Mn shares were exchanged. The sector’s volume accounted for Rs 0.75 Bn of total market turnover value. The Telecommunications Sector meanwhile, contributed 13.90Mn shares (or 11.40%), amounting to Rs 0.18 Bn.

Top Gainers and Losers

Ascot Holdings was the week’s highest price gainer; increasing 23.7% W-o-W from Rs 32.50 to Rs 40.20. Prime Finance gained 11.5% W-o-W to close at Rs 24.20. Arpico Insurance (+11.1% W-o-W) and Ceylon Investments (+10.5% W-o-W) were also amongst the gainers.

Blue Diamonds [X] was the week’s highest price losers, declining 20.0% W-o-W to close at Rs 0.40 while Serendib Engineering (-15.2% Y-o-Y), Kotagala Plantations (-10.9% W-o-W) and Keells Food (-10.5% W-o-W) were also amongst the top losers over the week.

Foreign investors closed the week in a net buying position with total net inflows amounting to Rs 0.54 Bn relative to last week’s total net outflow of Rs 1.04 Bn (+151.6% W-o-W). Total foreign purchases increased by 124.4% W-o-W to Rs 2.25 Bn from last week’s value of Rs 1.00 Bn, while total foreign sales amounted to Rs 1.71 Bn relative to Rs 2.04 Bn recorded last week (-16.02% W-o-W).

In terms of volume, Ascot Holdings and JKH led foreign purchases while Peoples Leasing and Tokyo Cement led foreign sales. In terms of value Ascot Holdings and JKH led foreign purchases while Peoples Leasing and Tokyo Cement led foreign sales.

Point of View

Equity markets rebounded to a net positive position after a week’s hiatus, gaining 40 index points W-o-W cf. last week’s decline of 60 points. The ASPI consequently pushed past the 6600-level, to touch a one-week high of 6633 points as retailers who have been largely on the sidelines over the past few weeks re-entered markets on expectations that the prevailing low interest rate environment would continue for longer.

Equity markets over the month of October rose 2.7%, helping wipe off some of the losses recorded at the start of Q3 2017 (-5.5%) in the run up to Parliamentary approval of the new IRD bill.

The ASPI lost 4.6% over Q3 2017 as tax concerns dominated markets, but the greater certainty post-approval of the tax reforms have led to markets rebounding strongly to gain approximately 250 points in the weeks following approval of the Act. Although lower than that of last week, institutional and HNI activity also remained relatively strong, with crossings for the week accounting to 42% of total market turnover (cf. 55% last week) amid heavy activity in Sampath Bank, CCS and JKH which cumulatively accounted for approximately 25% of total market turnover for the week. Interest in Dialog and a strategic transaction in Ascot also helped propel turnover levels, with crossings in Dialog accounting for 10% of total crossings and Ascot accounting for 11% of the week’s total crossings.

Despite this activity though, average daily turnover levels (Rs 0.83 Bn) fell 15% over the week to close 11% lower than the YTD average of Rs 0.94 Bn. Net foreign flows to the Bourse however, rebounded to a positive position this week, totaling Rs 535 Mn cf. last week’s outflows of Rs 1.1 Bn.

Markets in the week ahead are likely to look for cues from Sept Quarter corporate earnings which have begun trickling in.

Sri Lanka’s higher fuel import bill in Jan-Aug 2017 is in line with Acuity’s predictions earlier this year that the country’s fuel import bill will increase amid higher global oil prices and higher volumes due to drought-induced thermal-based power-generation. The Fuel import bill in Jan-Aug 2017 rose 54% Y-o-Y to $2,153 Mn (cf. $1,401 Mn in Jan-Aug 2016) as oil prices have risen 26% and import volumes have increased 22% relative to the comparable period last year.

It is expected that the year-end fuel import bill to be $3.3 Bn (in line with our earlier estimate of $3.1 Bn) as Brent crude oil prices are expected to close the year at $ 54/bbl amid tightening supply and stronger demand fundamentals.

Although this increase is expected to widen the trade deficit, the consistent capital inflows and an improved reserve position seen throughout 2017 will continue to support the year-end LKR value.

Some movement is likely due to seasonal importer dollar demand, but overall, the year-end LKR value is expected to be broadly stable. Nevertheless, external risks beyond 2017 have heightened amid increasing indications that Developed Market Central Banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE) are beginning to end an era of exceptional quantitative easing.

The synchronized monetary policy normalization (ie, end of QE programs) by the these Central Banks could increase Sri Lanka’s external financing risks (external debt repayments due between 2019 and 2022 are expected to average $3.6 Bn p.a) as higher global rates could result in lower risk appetite for Sri Lanka’s planned ISB issues in 2018/19 while simultaneously lowering foreign inflows to bonds and T-bills and pressurizing the LKR.

http://dailynews.lk/2017/10/30/business ... 600-levels

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby Contra » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:53 am

It is time to look for winners for 2018 and beyond. Today’s laggards’ are tomorrow’s winners.
Are there any surprises together with momentum in some stocks for the rest of this year and for 2018?
For long term players do they have long term business models and what types of opportunities that they have? Do they have characteristics of a multi bagger?
What would be next best trading opportunities in the market after plantation?
Will the month of November give us the direction to do something useful?
Is it wise to keep emergency money and money for special situations in the market?
Is it wise to go behind current favourites and go behind crowds?
How about thinking about new ones which are ready to begin their major uptrend? Thanks.
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:20 am

Contra wrote:It is time to look for winners for 2018 and beyond. Today’s laggards’ are tomorrow’s winners.
Are there any surprises together with momentum in some stocks for the rest of this year and for 2018?
For long term players do they have long term business models and what types of opportunities that they have? Do they have characteristics of a multi bagger?
What would be next best trading opportunities in the market after plantation?
Will the month of November give us the direction to do something useful?
Is it wise to keep emergency money and money for special situations in the market?
Is it wise to go behind current favourites and go behind crowds?
How about thinking about new ones which are ready to begin their major uptrend? Thanks.


Yes contra....

My favorite red days are back..

This is the time you should concentrate on stock selections. Red days gives you massive opportunities for that.

Sectors we should look.....

*Plantations

*Land & property

*Banks/Finance & Insurance

*Manufacturing

High dividend paying low debt companies......

:-? :-? :-? :-?

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby SHARK » Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:34 am

can we grab some businesses from the middle east market.

those companies set up due to no taxes previously, could be looking at other tax heaven countries in far east.

for their businesses/markets such as gold, silver and other valuable stones diamonds and gems which amounts to 80billion industry, mostly from UAE.

planning to introduce VAT at a standard rate of 5% in all GCC countries, could make some businesses not viable anymore in the middle east.
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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:48 am

Bourse lost 69 points last week but high net worth & institutional interest strong

Markets lost momentum last week losing 69 points W-o-W as investors waited in anticipation of the National Budget for 2018, Acuity Stockbrokers said in their Share Market Weekly.

"The Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Tuesday to hold policy rates steady for the fourth consecutive time this year (at its one before the last policy meeting for the year), was mostly priced in and the decision failed to move markets significantly in either direction," it said.

"The benchmark ASPI consequently fell below the 6,600-mark for the first time in a week. Despite the drop in the Index, average daily turnover levels picked up 8% as Institutional and high net worth investors returned strongly, accounting for ~67% of the week’s total market turnover against just 56% the previous week."

In contrast to the previous week, when blue-chips dominated crossings, strong activity in mid-caps such as United Motors (50% of total crossings), DIAL (16% of total crossings) and Hayleys (15% of total crossing) dominated market activity over the week, the report noted.

Foreign investors meanwhile turned into net sellers last week with net outflows from the bourse totaling Rs. 2.2Bn against net inflows of Rs. 0.7Bn the previous week and Rs. 0.5Bn the week prior, the Acuity report said noting that year-to-date net flows to the CSE now amounted to Rs. 17.41Bn, lower than the total of Rs. 21.5Bn. in the first half of this year.

Markets in the week ahead are likely to look for cues from the continued release of corporate earnings for the Sept’17 quarter which have been relatively mixed thus far, the report said.

http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat ... tle=174857

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Re: CSE - ASI - The way forward

Postby stocks hunter » Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:47 pm

I have prepared a small analysis how ASI performed after the electing of the present Govt in power.

A = ASI was around 7700 levels before the presidential elections in 2015.

B = Represents the performance of CSE immediately after the presidential elections. Even though the election results were in favor of the majority of sri lankans & as expected by many people who's wish to have good governance in the country CSE has some other ideas & affected negatively to the ASI & plunged to low as 6800 levels in march 2015.

C = This is the situation what we faced soon after the budget in 2015.Before this ASI once again bounced back to 7300 levels during the month of august 2015 from low levels of 6800. Mkt was affected directly due to the new taxes introduced by the new Govt such as SGT/CGT etc. ASI was down to low as 5800 levels during the month of march 2016.During June 2016 mkt was peaked to ASI 6700 levels but the brexit shock affected the mkt during the same month.

D = After the brexit shock mkt was heading down ward direction with the support of manipulators. TEC experts had highlighted this several times during this period that the mkt was under the downward manipulations & came down to ASI 5900 levels in March 2017.

E = After that mkt was peaked to ASI 6700 levels once again in June 2017 & had a minor correction in August 2017 towards ASI 6378 levels.

Now we are at ASI 6552 levels & There's a very good budget presented to the parliament which was backed/hailed by many in the corporate world.

Taking all in to consideration I strongly believe we should see a green CSE very soon until closer to provincial council elections.

Hope for the best.

B-) B-) B-) B-)
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