Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby topcat » Wed May 18, 2016 8:08 am

Thank you SH for the article. For aluf can see some panic selling. If this can be absorbed this will go further.
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby SHARK » Wed May 18, 2016 2:23 pm

Bravo SH for pointing it :D
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby SHARK » Wed May 18, 2016 2:25 pm

stocks hunter wrote:I believe right time has come again to remind this once again......

When we are in a bull mkt you can see all the shares are moving up irrespective of the fundamental values.
There for we should pay more attention now for stock selections and should strictly follow fundamentally valued discounted shares.

Some times you may experiance that the fundamentally sound stocks take time to go up. But in a difficult situation these stocks play a defensive role in your investment life.They declare attractive dividends,splits,etc...etc...

Just see the shares we discussed broadly in TEC in recent past like PARQ,RCL,LWL,TAFL,BFL,etc....etc... have appreciated in prices very rapidly. There are few more great value shares trading at discounted price levels and yet to reach its true potential prices like GRAN,AEL,SFIN,GLASS etc...etc...

Recently we observe that many fundamentally LESS valued shares being promoted by various groups every where but not in TEC like of HVA,ECL,SFL,REEF,ACME,WAPO etc......etc....for their benefits. Please be mindful of these things. Do your home work properly before investing in a share.Think about its value and the time frame of your investment.If the company is in a growing sector,has a good management,fundamentally sound and under valued presently that will be a good share to invest your hard earned money.

We should be happy about the TEC forum and now we have become the only active forum which provides great investment decisions to the investment community in Sri lanka.

Thanks for all the active contributors.......

Cheers.....

:ymhug: :ymhug: :ymhug: :ymhug:


Thanks SH and Others for keeping this place free of Blood suckers :-bd
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby stocks hunter » Mon Jul 11, 2016 7:53 am

For JKH warrant holders.

It's really happy that you all have make huge profits from zero value instrument. It's better to get the profit and invest that profit in a more valuable stock now. The players who know exactly what is going to happen may carry on. But better think twice if you are going to buy this instrument on speculative basis.

There are loads of fundamentally sound and shares that gives you more than 6.0%DY p.a. are trading at great discount prices. So why risk your money expecting short term benefits.

Look at shares like GLASS,VPEL,EXPO for a change.....

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby stocks hunter » Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:42 pm

stocks hunter wrote:Today I saw some people are mentioning a massive profit growth from VFIN. They have mentioned that VFIN has reported close to Rs16.0 EPS for the quarter.

But look at the accounts carefully. They have published annualised EPS figure for the quarter. Quarter EPS should be Rs3.95(164,195,000/41,500,600 shares)

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_fil ... 481716.pdf

VFIN has reported a growth. But we have to check the accounts carefully to get the right figure.

In case of ALUF its other way has happened.

They have reported good profits for the march Q. But the company has published wrong accounts and poor investors has to paid the penalty.(No body is available to look after these type of innocent shares holders whom are the victims of coporates donkeys........

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_fil ... 3.2016.pdf

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announ ... 41492_.pdf

If u carefully compare the accounts of ALUF as at 31/03/15 quarter with 31/03/16 there's no much differance in the performance as reported by the company.(March Q 2016 has mentioned a massive negative differance)

But if u campare the un audited figures as at 31/03/15 and the audited figures as at 31/03/15 u can see 100% chnages in every area.

Audited figures have reduce the cost of sale of the company by massive Rs10.0mn (between 31/03/15 unaudited cost of sales and the 31/03/16 audited cost of sales.)

Starting from that the entire accounts have been manipulated by the so called finance manager very nicely. I think he has no knowledge in presenting accounts in this calibre and some times he is not suit for the hayleys group.

He has continuously make blunders in accounts for more than 1 year now(only period I have checked deeply) and still continuing,that's why he has corrected the accounts and send a note to CSE this time as well.

Hayleys directors its up to you all to decided to continue with this finance manager in future or to get a good person for the sake of the innocent shareholders of ALUF and for the sake of corporate reputation maintain by the DP and the hayleys group.

Now are we have to pay the penalty of these type of corporate blunders? Who is going to help the poor investors.? What are the investor rights now? SEC its over to you to look in to these matters as you very correctly acted on BLUE matter.

CSE from their side made a big mistake.Actually the company has the faxed the errata notice may be in the morning. But their fax says date as 05/12 and the time as 19.23 (This is 7.30PM right) ha..ha.. BUT WE GOT THE ERRATA NOTICE BY 1.30PM local time on 12/05/16 during mkt hours.

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announ ... 41492_.pdf

CSE has failed to act on this matter professionally. Why can't they understand that these are price sensitive mistakes. Why at least CSE failed to mentioned a time on the fax that they received or on the date stamp even?

Are these people called professionals in the corporate world?

SEC/CSE should have halted the trading of ALUF no sooner they have received the fax like they acted on BLUE matter and should have cancelled all the transactions happened up to that time. Or else company should asked to bear any lost to its share holders due to these blunders happened from CSE/SEC side as well as ALUF side.

Its over to you to decide friends.....

One thing is clear. If not for this ALUF financial manager ALUF should trade around Rs45 - Rs50 range by now. Its fair value may be around Rs38 - Rs42, but it should always trade with a premium price due to its low share capital to its peer...............


http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announ ... 41492_.pdf


Somebody has to give a treat to the finance manager of ALUF please. Who can organize it.

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby sashimaal » Wed Jul 13, 2016 1:55 pm

=))
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby ExpertTortoise » Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:29 pm

The recent hype around an online Pokémon game showed one thing: that investors still have Alphabet Inc(NASDAQ:GOOG) stuck in a box labeled “online advertising.” They don’t yet see GOOG Stock for what it truly Is.Does Google make most of its money from advertising revenues? Absolutely, but that isn’t what made the company invest in Niantic—a software developer that came up with the “Pokémon Go” game—and it isn’t what will drive the company’s growth in the future.

Google stock has been one of the best performing in history. Since the company’s initial public offering in 2005, share have surged over 1,200%. A $1,000 investment in GOOG stock would be worth over $12,000 today.Yet, GOOG stock’s valuation is not that high. Trading at $680.04 per share, Google stock has a price-to-earnings multiple of 27.67X. If you use its expected earnings for the next calendar year, you’d see that the company is trading just above 17 times its forward earnings. If things turn to be the same there will be some one to take over for GOOG Stock.

Great time to invest in Nintendo and GOOG Stock that will surely soar!!

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby Contra » Sat Jul 16, 2016 8:52 am

Last week was a make or break week for the CSE.

Based on the active trading took place in the market for following types of stocks (which traded above their daily average during last two weeks), we can reasonably come to conclusion that different types of market participants such as foreign and local investors, foreign and local traders, momentum traders, stock value hunters, professional traders and contrarian market participants were active during last two weeks when compare with previous weeks and months.

We can find some very bullish, bullish and fairly bullish stocks in the attached list. Some stocks may be bearish on the basis of technical. They can become suddenly bullish. It is wise to pick some bearish stocks which are having some great fundamentals such as low debt or debt free, higher cash balance, High ROE relative to their peers and having higher implied prices as well. In a strong market, bearish stocks also can become bullish stocks suddenly.

From the following attached list some stocks are trading at a great discount to the market as well as to implied price and have lower P/E ratio. There are some bullish stocks but they are overvalued now.
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby Contra » Sat Jul 16, 2016 1:55 pm

Your Brain and Investing - Better Investing

http://www.betterinvesting.org/public/s ... public.htm

Your Brain and Investing
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby Contra » Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:09 am

Some more stocks which has to go through few barriers to become more bullish.
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby stocks hunter » Sun Jul 24, 2016 3:35 pm

It is utmost important to have an idea of what you are doing in share trading. Whether it is a sell, buy or hold decision you should know why you take that decision better than anyone else since your own money is in the business.

ALUF Blunders by Finance manager.

You all can remember the blunders done by the finance manager by providing wrong information to the public. That resulted ALUF share to crash to low as Rs40 levels after hitting Rs45 previous day. That is purely as a result of panic investors who sold their shares without properly examine what has happened there in ALUF. Now ALUF share is trading at Rs52.0 levels. Now you can’t blame anybody for taking losses for the lack of knowledge of yourself.

BFL – Interesting findings.

BFL share price drop by Rs7.30 on Friday. What is the reason for that down fall?

Sri Lankan’s are great negative thinkers.

We used to see only the negative side at the first instance and take the decision then and there.

Why worry?

There’s nothing to worry or to get panic over the BFL June Q 16 results.

BFL June Q16 Vs BFL June Q15

*Revenue – Has increased against June Q15

*Operating Expenses – Increased only by few millions against June Q15. That is from Rs774.0mn to Rs789.0mn by only Rs15.0mn for the year. This shows management has a proper control over the company activities and prudent cost control practices are in place.

*Operating Income – Has increased as well against June Q15

*Net income before tax – Has increased as well from Rs159.0mn to Rs167.0mn against June Q15.

*Net Income after tax – Has shown a decrease against June Q15. This is where the average investors got panic without a proper evaluation of the situation.

*In June 2015 BFL has taken in to account Rs24.9mn as a negative goodwill.

*Yes there is a tax increase of Rs24.0mn (from Rs13.0 to Rs37.0mn) against June Q15.

*Hence a sum of Rs50.0mn approximately has wiped out from BFL June Q 2016 reports and this has nothing to do with their company performance.

Net Income reported as at 30/06/16 = Rs119.0mn

Net income reported as at 30/06/15 = Rs144.0mn (With Rs24.9mn negative goodwill)

Net Income reported as at 30/06/16 = Rs119.1mn (Without negative goodwill + Rs24.0mn tax increase)

There’s no change at all in profitability of BFL YoY. June 2016 profits can be rated as super performances from the company side since they are yet to receive any benefit to the bottom-line from their biggest investment in the history the JV – Fortune agro feed mill which has commenced its feed mill operations only in June 2016.

Then why worry?

BFL June Q 2016 Vs BFL March Q 2016

* Revenue – Has increased slightly or flat against March Q 16

*Operating Expenses – Increased only by few millions against March Q 2016. That is from Rs786.0mn to Rs789.0mn by only Rs3.0mn for the period. They have reported reductions in Admin expenses, other operating expenses and distributions costs on QoQ basis which again shows that the management is closely applying prudent cost control techniques in the company.

Finance Costs – Has increased only by small margin of Rs1.0mn approximately QoQ basis.

*PBT – Has reported a drop of only Rs6.0mn approximately on back of a reduction of other operating income of Rs20.0mn approximately. Other operating income consists of dividends received from subsidiary companies. This again shows us that the BFL has done well even in QoQ basis as well.

*PAT – Shows a drop of Rs5.0mn approximately QoQ basis. Income tax expenses shows an increase of Rs9.0mn approximately QoQ basis. JV operations shows only the income received from GP fortune farms since the GP fortune agro industries – The feed mill factory has commenced its commercial operations only in June 2016.

Net Income reported as at 30/06/16 = Rs119.0mn

Net income reported as at 30/03/16 = Rs124.0mn (With Rs22.0mn other income)

Net Income reported as at 30/06/16 = Rs119.mn (Without Rs22.0mn other income and additional income tax payment of Rs9.0 approxi:)

Again this shows that BFL has done well and will benefit from the feed mill operations in future quarters.

Conclusion

We can treat this period as a consolidation period for BFL since they have reported consistance performance over the period of time despite heavy investments made on JV company.(Almost flat performances for the past consecutive quarters in the area of Revenue, operating income,net income and EPS etc)

Further during second quarter several tax increases took place in the country and most parts of the country were under floods for days/weeks which again dampens the purchasing power of the consumers and the chiken meet was under MRP of Rs380.

However now the situation has changed and Govt has increased the MRP for chicken by Rs30/kg as well. Most of the policy implementaions also now in place and the country is slowly getting out of BOP crisis situation. Lots of foreign funds are buying Govt bonds and net foreign interest witnessed during last three consecutive weeks in CSE as well.

Having identified the potential foreigners purchased BFL on friday at bargain prices from locals. Not only BFL foreign attention is now focussed towards all poultry stocks leading from GRAN.TAFL and BFL.

:D
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby christ » Sun Jul 24, 2016 4:39 pm

Thanks SH B-)

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby sashimaal » Sun Jul 24, 2016 5:13 pm

Very good analysis SH !

So the Rs 24+ million negative goodwill which was on the P&L last year same quarter affected the EPS to go up last time.
So it's flat EPS this time (even after the high tax payment). It is a good performance . (Disc: holding)

Also the Share of Profits from JV companies is missing. Any accountants who can explain that to us pls.
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby stocks hunter » Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:11 pm

sashimaal wrote:Very good analysis SH !

So the Rs 24+ million negative goodwill which was on the P&L last year same quarter affected the EPS to go up last time.
So it's flat EPS this time (even after the high tax payment). It is a good performance . (Disc: holding)

Also the Share of Profits from JV companies is missing. Any accountants who can explain that to us pls.


I think you are talking about the associate company profits not JV? Am I correct?

Associate copany GP fortune farms has now become a JV company. BFL has increased it's holding from 39.54% to 50.0%

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby sashimaal » Sun Jul 24, 2016 10:19 pm

mmm...thanks SH
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby topcat » Mon Jul 25, 2016 5:52 am

Thanks SH. You save me big time in aluf when blunders done by FM. As you said we also should thank him because we could collected more in lower prices.. Now all know the price of aluf. Still technically bulish. . SH please continue your good work and you are making us rich both from money and knowledge :ymhug:
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby Contra » Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:14 am

stocks hunter wrote:It is utmost important to have an idea of what you are doing in share trading. Whether it is a sell, buy or hold decision you should know why you take that decision better than anyone else since your own money is in the business.

ALUF Blunders by Finance manager.

You all can remember the blunders done by the finance manager by providing wrong information to the public. That resulted ALUF share to crash to low as Rs40 levels after hitting Rs45 previous day. That is purely as a result of panic investors who sold their shares without properly examine what has happened there in ALUF. Now ALUF share is trading at Rs52.0 levels. Now you can’t blame anybody for taking losses for the lack of knowledge of yourself.

BFL – Interesting findings.

BFL share price drop by Rs7.30 on Friday. What is the reason for that down fall?

Sri Lankan’s are great negative thinkers.

We used to see only the negative side at the first instance and take the decision then and there.

Why worry?

There’s nothing to worry or to get panic over the BFL June Q 16 results.

BFL June Q16 Vs BFL June Q15

*Revenue – Has increased against June Q15

*Operating Expenses – Increased only by few millions against June Q15. That is from Rs774.0mn to Rs789.0mn by only Rs15.0mn for the year. This shows management has a proper control over the company activities and prudent cost control practices are in place.

*Operating Income – Has increased as well against June Q15

*Net income before tax – Has increased as well from Rs159.0mn to Rs167.0mn against June Q15.

*Net Income after tax – Has shown a decrease against June Q15. This is where the average investors got panic without a proper evaluation of the situation.

*In June 2015 BFL has taken in to account Rs24.9mn as a negative goodwill.

*Yes there is a tax increase of Rs24.0mn (from Rs13.0 to Rs37.0mn) against June Q15.

*Hence a sum of Rs50.0mn approximately has wiped out from BFL June Q 2016 reports and this has nothing to do with their company performance.

Net Income reported as at 30/06/16 = Rs119.0mn

Net income reported as at 30/06/15 = Rs144.0mn (With Rs24.9mn negative goodwill)

Net Income reported as at 30/06/16 = Rs119.1mn (Without negative goodwill + Rs24.0mn tax increase)

There’s no change at all in profitability of BFL YoY. June 2016 profits can be rated as super performances from the company side since they are yet to receive any benefit to the bottom-line from their biggest investment in the history the JV – Fortune agro feed mill which has commenced its feed mill operations only in June 2016.

Then why worry?

BFL June Q 2016 Vs BFL March Q 2016

* Revenue – Has increased slightly or flat against March Q 16

*Operating Expenses – Increased only by few millions against March Q 2016. That is from Rs786.0mn to Rs789.0mn by only Rs3.0mn for the period. They have reported reductions in Admin expenses, other operating expenses and distributions costs on QoQ basis which again shows that the management is closely applying prudent cost control techniques in the company.

Finance Costs – Has increased only by small margin of Rs1.0mn approximately QoQ basis.



*PBT – Has reported a drop of only Rs6.0mn approximately on back of a reduction of other operating income of Rs20.0mn approximately. Other operating income consists of dividends received from subsidiary companies. This again shows us that the BFL has done well even in QoQ basis as well.

*PAT – Shows a drop of Rs5.0mn approximately QoQ basis. Income tax expenses shows an increase of Rs9.0mn approximately QoQ basis. JV operations shows only the income received from GP fortune farms since the GP fortune agro industries – The feed mill factory has commenced its commercial operations only in June 2016.

Net Income reported as at 30/06/16 = Rs119.0mn

Net income reported as at 30/03/16 = Rs124.0mn (With Rs22.0mn other income)

Net Income reported as at 30/06/16 = Rs119.mn (Without Rs22.0mn other income and additional income tax payment of Rs9.0 approxi:)

Again this shows that BFL has done well and will benefit from the feed mill operations in future quarters.

Conclusion

We can treat this period as a consolidation period for BFL since they have reported consistance performance over the period of time despite heavy investments made on JV company.(Almost flat performances for the past consecutive quarters in the area of Revenue, operating income,net income and EPS etc)

Further during second quarter several tax increases took place in the country and most parts of the country were under floods for days/weeks which again dampens the purchasing power of the consumers and the chiken meet was under MRP of Rs380.

However now the situation has changed and Govt has increased the MRP for chicken by Rs30/kg as well. Most of the policy implementaions also now in place and the country is slowly getting out of BOP crisis situation. Lots of foreign funds are buying Govt bonds and net foreign interest witnessed during last three consecutive weeks in CSE as well.

Having identified the potential foreigners purchased BFL on friday at bargain prices from locals. Not only BFL foreign attention is now focussed towards all poultry stocks leading from GRAN.TAFL and BFL.

:D


Thank you for your effort and time. Very good analysis. I went through their quarterly report during week end and they are doing fine. There are lot of valuable information in financial reports. One by one, we have to go through in detail.Then we can estimate their future progress.

Even if they can maintain half of the current earnings yearly, that is more than enough to maintain their strong balance sheet. Still it will have great value. At the moment it has unbelievable value.

In addition, more than studying quarterly earnings it is wise to study their bigger picture for number of quarters and years. Normally we cannot expect same quarterly earnings almost every quarter due to short term events. Even it is same for big giants.In my opinion it is wise to analyse companies on yearly basis rather than quartlely basis. However, by estimating progress for five years and beyond we should be able to find out some attractive investment opportunities.
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby siga » Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:28 am

You are Great :-* :-* :-* :-* Thank you SH,

Because of you, We are getting rich in money & knowledge. Also always Free from the stressed ^:)^ ^:)^

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby topcat » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:10 pm

stocks hunter wrote:Mkt down by 24 points.

Main contributor is CTC down by Rs20 for 465 shares only. How fair is this. Because of this retailers who have no idea will sell solid shares at lower prices. Is it fair. Don't go by the ASI..

Treat ASI as your investment devil. To succeed in CSE you have be brave against ASI....

Yes SH. That's really sad situation for innocent new comers. But more experience investors will see this as an opportunity.
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby stocks hunter » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:27 pm

Mkt down by 24 points.

Main contributor is CTC down by Rs20 for 465 shares only. How fair is this. Because of this retailers who have no idea will sell solid shares at lower prices. Is it fair. Don't go by the ASI..

Treat ASI as your investment devil. To succeed in CSE you have be brave against ASI....

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby stocks hunter » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:45 pm

topcat wrote:
stocks hunter wrote:Mkt down by 24 points.

Main contributor is CTC down by Rs20 for 465 shares only. How fair is this. Because of this retailers who have no idea will sell solid shares at lower prices. Is it fair. Don't go by the ASI..

Treat ASI as your investment devil. To succeed in CSE you have be brave against ASI....

Yes SH. That's really sad situation for innocent new comers. But more experience investors will see this as an opportunity.


Even don't get excited if mkt turns green at the end of the day. Such a buying pressure is there at the moment.

:ymhug:

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby pure equity » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:17 pm

thanks for all

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby pure equity » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:30 pm

as a new comer we learn lot of think

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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby Contra » Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:39 pm

Thank you for encouraging us to use our brain wisely.
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Re: Use your Brain and Invest in Stocks

Postby stocks hunter » Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:30 am

As per the BRS report the impact on EPS from tax hike will be around Rs1.41 per quarter. Last Q they produced EPS of Rs3.75.

We can assume the net EPS for future quarters should be around = Rs3.75 - Rs1.41 = Rs2.34

Hence we can't expect LIOC price to go down further......

They have Rs1.25 dividend pending to be distributed in the month of Sep 2016 as well.

Hence becareful about your selling decision.

Tx.

Final decision is yours and don't blame me later....


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