Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:54 pm

19th July 2017

Its the power of blue chips today that able the market not to stay above the support level of 6,700 but to come down below that after some time. Across the board, from the morning to the end, it was a red day. This was sparked by Chevron with their massive drop in earnings for the second quarter. However the biggest impact for the market was made by Hemas later on with a decline of 3.6% however only 1,666 shares traded. Other than these two price drops in Dialog, Melstacorp and JKH also contributed negatively.

The day's turnover was a respectable Rs782Mn. HNB, Chevron & Cold Stores contributed heavily for the turnover. Unlike yesterday today's retail activities were at the higher side with over 5,000 number of trades.

Net foreign buying amounted to Rs113Mn today.

Given the sharp decline of today attributable to the reaction to Chevron results and low-volume drop of HHL I guess tomorrow market can bounce back once again to stay above 6,700 level once more.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby GB » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:29 pm

Thank you BW.

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:02 pm

Thanks BW....
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby newer1 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:22 pm

thanks BW. but looking u are less active these days and hope busy with your officials.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:22 pm

20th July 2017

Market didn't turn up today as expected but closed down 10 points. It was a steep fall till 12 noon but recovered somewhat thereafter till the end of trading. Hemas recovered as I expected yesterday but drops in CTC, JKH and Dialog pulled down the market.

Market turnover passed Rs1Bn today with total number of trades exceeding 4,600. Leading contributors for the turnover were Expolanka and JKH. Foreigners were net buyers yet another day with a net buying of Rs346Mn.

Market RSI now dropped to 44 from 3 a week ago. market is currently entering into a bearish territory and recovery of key blue chips can revive the market once more.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:30 pm

21st July 2017

Market bearish pattern continued and ended the day loosing 15 points further. The continues drop in market index during the last few days indicates a possible pull back in the market. This scenario may turnout that 6,700 in ASPI be a resistance and if that is the case market may finds another support level possibly in the range of 6,550 - 6,600 however still not conclusive about the market direction. Today's market decline is mainly due to the decline in blue chip counters such as JKH, HNB, SLT, etc.

Market turnover was an average figure of Rs517Mn coming from 4,853 trades. Foreign buying as well as selling were on par with a marginal net buying figure of Rs6Mn.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby SHARK » Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:53 pm

Thanks Blue....

Its time you unleash Earnings Projections .....

We are in the brink of receiving the Quarterly Updates .....
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:50 am

SHARK wrote:Thanks Blue....

Its time you unleash Earnings Projections .....

We are in the brink of receiving the Quarterly Updates .....


:))
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:37 pm

24th July 2017

Market started the new week with a negative sentiment with loosing by 5 points. The drop was mainly due to Hemas and Cold Stores. JKH was trading around 172/- and looked good interest there. However some interest was seen in plantation stocks once again with stocks like WATA, ELPL, BALA, MADU etc trading in good volumes.

Turnover for the day reached a modest 500Mn through 3,837 trades. The interesting thing was that net foreign buying amounting to Rs196Mn was recorded with the absence of big crossings. Meaning most of the market activities are from foreigners.

I expect the overall market sentiment to improve in the next few days with more fireworks in plantation sector.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby GB » Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:46 pm

Thank you BW.

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby newer1 » Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:03 pm

Thanks BW.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby lukedesilva » Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:57 pm

Thx BW

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:19 pm

Thanks BW....
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby voight » Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:50 am

Thanks BW
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:24 pm

25th July 2017

ASPI index displayed a rounded bottom shape today declining till about 12 noon but thereafter bouncing up till the end of the day with the news of the Cabinet approving the Port City deal. However ASPI ended the day still down by 2 points. CTC, LOLC and Dialog are the main shares contributed to the decline but recovered to a greater extend due to price gains in JKH and Hemas.

Turnover was a mediocre Rs360Mn for the day with just above 3,750 trades. Yet again foreigners turned bullish with a net inflow of Rs47Mn.

ASPI showing the signs of consolidation at the current level with RSI ranging around 40 still. Sometimes this level may form the rounded bottom of the current bearish pattern and resume the upward trend yet again, may be from tomorrow.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:00 am

26th July 2017

As expected market performed an upward action though in a small scale increasing by 6 points. The market gains seemed diminished when the day approaches the end of trading. JKH was the main contributor for the market gain while Nestle, PLC, Richard Pieris declined.

The days turnover was once again a mediocre 319Mn however number of trades improved to 4,208 from the previous day. The reduction in the market turnover signal out the relative inactivity of the strategic investors as well as lowered demand for risky assets. However ASPI continue to move around 6,700 mark.

RSI moved to 42 after forming a rounded bottom in the RSI chart. I expect the remaining days of the week too to display the similar lethargic signals will low turnover.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby topcat » Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:06 am

thnx blue
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:40 pm

27th July 2017

Market index stagnated for the day without any significant movements. Ceylon Tobacco and Melstacorp added positive support while Hemas, Richard Pieris, NDB, ect declined. Retail interest was seen on CFVF while some notable activity was seen in TPL following the release of financials yesterday.

Turnover was a respectable Rs781Mn, better than yesterday's but number of trades declined to 3,379. Close to 60% of the turnover came from the dealings in CFT. It is believed that the controlling shareholder has sell out his stake @ 5/-. Foreign purchases continue during the day as well recording a net purchase of Rs203Mn.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:08 pm

Thanks BW....
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby NUMBER CRUNCHER » Thu Jul 27, 2017 7:59 pm

Thank you BW !!
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:04 pm

28th July 2017

Market ended another static day with just 3 points dropping for the day. The drop in Sampath Bank on account of 1 for 6 rights issue @ 245 made some market jitters but other major banks like HNB & Commercial banks stayed strong.

Market turnover was an average 626Mn came through 3,614 trades. Turnover was boosted by trades/crossings in Teejay and Tokyo cement. It should be notable how Teejay holding the ground/support level of 40/- and above even in the eve of significant profit drops YoY.

Market is so far having a negative return of 1.2% for the month of July. Based on current sentiment it is highly likely that we will see a native monthly market return for the first time in July after great three months period since this April.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby matrix » Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:51 pm

Thanks blue
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:00 pm

31st July 2017

As cautioned today market ended in a negative note. The month of July ended with a negative return of 1.6%, the first time in four months after generating positive returns for three consecutive months. Dialog, CTC, VONE, CCS, Sampath were the main contributors for the market decline.

Turnover for the day was a moderate Rs508Mn. No of trades recorded a figure below 3,800. Few small scale crossings witnessed in JKH, Access and Teejay.

Though the market was in red foreign buying continue to witness as CSE. This time the net inflow amounted to Rs122Mn.

RSI of ASPI heading down towards the lower band of the neutral territory coming down to 35 from 40s. If the market sentiment remain to be weak for this week too The market will face a situation of over-sold. But as prudent investors we could expect a good support once (in case) ASPI reaches 6,600 level.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:59 pm

1st August 2017

New month started with a negative note. ASPI declined by 3 points to close marginally above 6,600. The main contributors for the market loss was the beaten down share prices of two blue chips owing to the recent poor quarterly performance namely CCS and LLUB. Also JKH and Dialog too joined the backward march.

However market turnover was an encouraging Rs1.2Bn, crossing the billion mark after some time, thanks to the big deals in JKH and Chevron. Retail activities were seen at a reduced level with number of crossings falling below 3,700.

After a long time foreigners turned bearish @ CSE selling stocks worth 192Mn more than what they have bought.

Now ASPI has approached a key support level of 6,600. Can the tables turned from this point or market to continue more bashing tomorrow.....
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:10 am

2nd August 2017

So it was continues bashing @ CSE. This time ASPI dropped by another 19 points. The major contributors for the drop were LION, BREW and CARG followed by the big boys, JKH & NEST.

Total turnover for the day was a very good 978Mn came through 3,394 trades. The decline in number of trades over the past few days hinting a trend of reducing retail activity in the market which may not be a good sign for ASPI upward movement.

However 80% of the days turnover was due to foreign activity where foreigners buying to a net of Rs754Mn. The highest buying came from JKH and EXPO side.

With this market fall RSI now fallen through the lower band of the neutral territory and entered into an oversold region. RSI now stands @ 26. Looks like the market will be pushed deep into the oversold region may be towards 20 before coming out of the gloomy mood.
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