Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:08 pm

3rd August 2017

As expected market continue to go deep into oversold region. ASPI lost further 15 points today on account of price drops in JKH, MELS, DFCC, AHPL, etc. Market activities are going down rapidly due to some unexplainable reason. The lack of momentum has its say on the flourishing ASPI for the last three months since April this year.

Market turnover was a below-average one of Rs381Mn. Total trades gone down to 3,100 level, worse than yesterday.

Like a silver line in a dark cloud net foreign buying continues today as well to the tune of 113Mn.

Since the market has reached a RSI figure of 25 I expect a stabilization of things but how sooner it will be is a concern due to some of the not-so-good financials we are seeing now. Clearly hotel sector has not done well. Manufacturing sector too showing mix conditions. Food & Beverage sector is in a reverse gear. However Financial sector looks impressive to me and the future also look bright with the trend of declining interest rates. The rest of the week should check the power of bargaining hunters.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby GB » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:17 pm

Thank you BW

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby voight » Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:36 pm

Thanks BW.
No tree grows to the sky :-?

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby varathanS » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:16 pm

BW waiting for your comments? We are missing your comments last 2 days

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby helloworld » Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:17 pm

Thanks Blue!!

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:17 pm

4th August 2017

Bargain hunting was yet to witness @ CSE, absence of which has resulted the ASPI dropping by another 4 points for the day. ASPI lost 1.5% for the week ending 4th August, the second straight week of market lost. The decline in JKH had the biggest impact alongside the decline of key blue chips such as Dialog, Chevron & LOLC. Sampath Bank recovered superbly on account of fantastic quarter result, over performing my expectations, mitigated the market downfall to a greater extend.

Turnover was a moderate 405Mn came through 3,141 trades. Number of trades continue to come down indicating deteriorating retail interest.

Though the foreign activities were low the day ended with a positive net inflow of Rs81Mn.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:46 pm

8th August 2017

Long weekend didn't help the CSE to cool-off. Market slip continues today as well but in a very big percentage however with small volumes. ASPI lost by another 43 points. This was mainly in the back of drop in JKH. Many blue chips such as Nestle, Chevron, Melstacorp, Dialog, etc added salt for the wounds.

Market turnover was a below-average figure of Rs350Mn came through similar number of trades as per the previous day. Retail investors continued to adopt a side lining strategy. It was confusing as to why the market has turned this much bearish suddenly but clearly the market sentiment that was prevailed in Q2 seems to be no more.

Foreign activities remain small, however this time the foreign selling surpass the foreign buying by a marginal Rs29Mn.

RSI of the ASPI now reading @ 20 which is an absolute oversold. This was the lowest RSI recorded for this year since the beginning due to recent market fall. I expect a consolidation happening soon as a further fall beyond this point will definitely activate the bargain hunting @ CSE.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby GB » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:28 pm

Thank You BW

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:51 pm

Thanks BW..
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Without compromising your ability to Live Tomorrow……… :)

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:53 pm

9th August 2017

No mercy @ CSE !!!. ASPI continue to move into deep oversold region yet another day dropping by another 18 points to close closer towards psychological 6,500. Chevron was the biggest contributor for the market decline with HNB and Cold Stores chipping in.

Market turnover was however a respectable Rs748Mn came through over 3,600 number of trades. Foreigners accounted for 2/3rd of the days turnover with a net foreign purchase of Rs124Mn.

ASPI now reached into a deep oversold region with RSI falling to 18.6. I expect market should start consolidation now and prepare for a 'U' turn as there is nothing fundamentally wrong in the macro economy despite some global concerns due to rising conflicts between US and N.Korea.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby roshana7549 » Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:25 pm

Hope the market will bounce back with few good news in the coming days....

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby NUMBER CRUNCHER » Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:19 am

Thank you BW !!
The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.Warren Buffett

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:26 am

roshana7549 wrote:Hope the market will bounce back with few good news in the coming days....


My hope is also the same :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:30 pm

10th August 2017

Market recovered a little finally as it has been in the oversold region. ASPI has gained 10 points at the end of trading today thanks to recovery in key blue chips such as CTC, SAMP, LLUB, etc. Sampath Bank has gained superbly for the day dashing the hopes of some pessimists to pull down the share price citing fears of the announced rights issue as they have forgot that the new funds will add significant boost for future business growth. Chevron, as I have predicted, halted the free-fall as it has been in a deep oversold territory to come back strongly to close the day @ 133.5 where the short-term price recovery target of 135-140 will be very much likely tomorrow. Dialog too demonstrated signs of recovery YoY for Q2 after the calamity of various taxes. In the meantime, Melstacorp came down because of significant drop in profits while JKH too came down due to some organized trading strategy.

Turnover has been a below par Rs308Mn came through 3,381 trades in the absence of big deals. However, foreigners turned bullish for the day as well with a net purchase of Rs98Mn.

There were lot of good results issued after the end of trading. Noteworthy performances came from Aitken Spense and several of the plantation sector stocks, as already anticipated by me, such as Namunukula, Maskeliya and Kegalle. Other than that, Balangoda and Madulsima plantations came up with extraordinary performance even to the surprise of myself. I expect a renewed interest in plantation sector rally tomorrow with the possibility of companies like Balangoda and Madulsima recording new 52W high prices.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby GB » Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:48 pm

Thank you BW. Detailed one after long time. :D

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:36 pm

Thanks GB. Details have to express when there are things to explain. :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:19 pm

11th August 2017

As expected it was all about Balangoda and Madulsima plantations @ CSE today. As predicted both shares entered into a new territory both left long time ago. Balangoda surpassed 20/- and Madulsima surpassed double digits establishing new 52Week highs. However the thin life market experienced yesterday was lost today after market drop by 24 points and closed below 6,500 mark after a considerable time since the market achieved this feat couple of months back. The drop in Hemas, JKH, Cold Stores, Sampath bank have resulted to this drop partially. But I think retailers have sold out some of their holdings to free cash in order to join with another probable plantation run from next week.

Market turnover was again below par with only 306Mn however number of trades jumped above 4,400 after slipping below 3,300 few days ago. Plantation stocks accounted for 1/5th of this total trades.

Foreign activities represent 50% of the turnover today with a marginal 5Mn net foreign purchase.

At the end of trading HAPU, UDPL and BOPL released the financials and all of them reflects the very expectation BW set one month before so now we have got most of plantation sector results and clearly as a whole the sector grew fantastically YoY as well as QoQ. At the absence of attractive sector to trade in CSE at the moment I think chances are very high that retail investors to rally around plantation sector and may create strong demand which may ultimately push the sector index towards the BW expectation.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:38 pm

14th August 2017

Market decline continued with ASPI closing the day by 7 points. However it was up more than 20 points in the morning. The decline in SLT, Tobacco, Dialog, etc contributed for the drop.

The turnover was a moderate 411Mn with number of trades falling below 3,000 after very long time. However net foreign buying was 38Mn.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby SHARK » Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:06 pm

Thanks Blue
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:00 pm

15th August 2017

ASPI crashed today with key blue chips coming down drastically. At the end of the day 45 points were reduced from the previous close mark of ASPI. The heaviest contributor for the decline was JKH followed by Cold Stores, HNB, Nestle, SLT, ect. Though it is not clear for such a drastic decline the CSE clearly fell to a very bearish territory.

Though the market crashed turnover reach 1.1Bn today, crossing the milestone after some time. Major contributor for this turnover was HNB where two crossings tool place @ 230/- per share totaling to a value of Rs697Mn. No of trades just exceed 3,000 reflecting the degree of stay-away by the local retailers.

The buyer of the HNB block was a foreign party leading to record a net foreign purchase of Rs789Mn. Foreign buying continue to happen @ CSE while domestic selling continue as well.

From the technical perspective, ASPI moving into a deep oversold region day by day. Today's crash push down the RSI to 16, a level last seen on December 2016. Since the market is in deep oversold a recovery should be expected at any time hence I advise the investors to look at value stocks that has been fallen due to the current bearish condition and to start accumulating for the future returns.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby topcat » Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:01 pm

Thnx blue
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby newer1 » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:29 pm

thanks BW.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:47 pm

Thanks BW.....
Live Today........
Without compromising your ability to Live Tomorrow……… :)

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:59 am

Thanks everyone. :ymhug:
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Xmart » Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:45 pm

Thanks Blue
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