Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

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voight
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby voight » Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:05 pm

Thanks BW
No tree grows to the sky :-?

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:05 pm

16th August 2017

ASPI crash continued with more selling as ASPI further slumped by 24 point. JKH continued to go south with CCS joining the operation. Dockyard as well as Commercial Credit added more blood on the street with their poor quarterly reports. The negative atmosphere at CSE prevented some definite upside movements for some stocks such as FLCH, BALA, BIL, etc. However LDEV registered a 20% gain following the impressive quarter statement.

Turnover was a respectable Rs780Mn came through a healthy 4,687 trades indicating an active day for retailers. Turnover was well supported by crossings went through in Sampath Bank and JKH.

Foreigners turned net buyers once again to the value of Rs99Mn.

ASPI moving further deep into the oversold region and came drastically from the philological support of 6,500 and seems heading towards the next support around 6,300. The mixed quarterly results we have seen so far seems doing very little to push up the index. However I expect a turnaround sooner than later.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby NUMBER CRUNCHER » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:56 am

Thank you BW !!
The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.Warren Buffett

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:55 am

17th August 2017

Market continue to loos ground and after some time the index came below 6,400 as well but closing above 6,400 somehow yet loosing 9 points. Though JKH recovered slightly the fall in Nestle, Melstacorp, HNB, DFCC, etc were responsible for market decline.

Turnover was a mediocre 335Mn with 3,197 trades. Foreign activities were rather smaller however ended the day with a net foreign inflow of 13Mn.

Since the market is in a deep oversold region a turnaround should happen anytime soon. It could be today as well.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby voight » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:43 pm

Thanks BW
No tree grows to the sky :-?

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby helloworld » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:26 pm

Thanks Blue hope today you will be able to write with a positive note

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:22 pm

helloworld wrote:Thanks Blue hope today you will be able to write with a positive note


Something to happy about at last.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:15 pm

18th August 2017

Is it the light at the end of the tunnel today...After a series of red days a green day to end the week. ASPI closed up by 28 points on the Hercules effort by LOLC. LOLC moved significantly today together with its subsidiaries, BIL & FLCH, and later on SLT, HNB, COCR, etc joined in. JKH was on a neutral position today.

Turnover reached 622Mn on account of 3,545 trades. Sampath bank and LOLC involved with crossings to boost the day's turnover.

Foreigners turned net buyers again to a value of Rs43Mn.

I attribute the day's recovery due to the clarification by state minister Eran W on the issues with new IRA. If the proposed act can move in the house without creating unnecessary hiccups in the minds of investors the market should move to its desired direction.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:48 am

21st August 2017

The week started with yet again with a decline unable to sustain the gains made on last Friday. ASPI declined by 16 points at the end of the day. The decline were led by JKH, SLT. DIAL, NEST, etc.

Nothing much encouraging from turnover as well with a below-average 323Mn for the day. No of trades fell sharply towards 2,500 one of the lowest since 27th March 2017 indicating the decline of interest by the retailers.

Foreign activity too was a little with a net outflow of 36Mn.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:08 am

22nd August 2017

Market continue its slippage for the 2nd day of the week by another 25 points. I attribute this slip to the proposed IRA to be presented to parliament on this Friday. Investors seem worry about the 28% tax imposed on trading of shares. But as per Eran W this will be amended for the Friday's tabulation but it seems that investors are not believing. JKH slipped below 160. Other blue chips such as Melstacorp, Hemas, Dialog, LOLC, etc also declined in tandem.

Market turnover too a below average 419Mn with still lower number of trades similar to yesterday's. Only one crossing recorded for the day and that was for Commercial bank @ 137/-

Foreign activities are also less however this time a net inflow of Rs78Mn recorded.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:52 pm

23rd Aug 2017

Market continue to be red savvy at Colombo. ASPI lost another 12 points for the day moving further deep into the oversold region. JKH continue to dampen the market sentiment while stocks like Melstacorp, Cargills, HNB, Chevron, etc joining to the operation.

However turnover reached above half a billion mark for the first time for the week with 808Mn for the day through number of trades just below 3,000. Interestingly more than half of the turnover came from Browns Capital due to strategic deals.

Foreigners continue to accumulate from a heavily undervalued market recording a net foreign inflow of 114Mn for the day.

From the technical point of view market is moving deep into the oversold region. SAR moving downward. MACD continue to be negative. RSI well below 20. Seems that, as I said last week, investors are staying away from the market until getting sure as to the new IRA has no provisions that will affect the returns from risky assets in Sri Lanka.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:56 am

24th Aug 2017

Market was rather unchanged during the day. Not seen major market movers today. Turnover level too a normal 476Mn.

Market continue to trade in the oversold region. Having trading at a PE of 10.4x reflects our CSE is majorly undervalued compared to other emerging markets. The question is why it is at this state still.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:02 am

25th August 2017

Market edged up by 27 points today largely on account of hoping no taxes on share trading by the new IRA. Blue chips have led the market movement with JKH leading and other blue chips such as LOLC, HNB, etc following.

Market turnover improved compared to yesterday reaching 600Mn with increased activity level hitting the number of trades above 3,500.

Foreign activities accounted for more than half of the turnover today with a net foreign purchase of 47Mn.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:08 am

28th August 2017

Nothing much on the new IRA on last Friday led the market sentiment to deteriorate towards the end from the start. ASPI closed just 3 points above the previous close.

A market turnover of 210Mn was an indication of the lethargic situation prevailed @ CSE today. Number of trades just fell below 3000 mark.

Foreign activities were very thin yet net foreign inflow for the year extended by another 42Mn.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:16 am

29th August 2017

Market came down by 14 points today, a continuation of the trend showed in the latter part of trading yesterday. The major contributor for the day's loss was Hemas which was experienced a rapid rise till this month but now seems pulling back.

However market turnover improved dramatically today reaching 1.6Bn crossing the billion mark after some time. Several crossings in JKH with a crossing worth 220Mn from Nestle boosted the market turnover.

Foreigners became net sellers after some time today with a total outflow of 495Mn.

Since the market came down below 6,400 again and the IRA is still on talks than approved legitimate market sentiments will be dull for the coming days of the week.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:28 am

30th August 2017

Market declined by another 8 points and continue to move away from 6,400 mark. Commercial Bank, Dialog, Nestle, Valible One, etc contributed negatively.

Market turnover was a moderate 592Mn came through a just above 3,000 trades. Retail investors continue to show signs of loss of direction.

Foreigners turned net buyers again with a net purchase of 89Mn.

At the going rate its likely that market will run like this throughout the rest of the week given that there are lack of sentiment boosters in the current market.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:49 pm

31st August 2017

Market ended the day rather unchanged from yesterday's close. However the conclusion of the month of August recorded a decline of 3.7% in terms of ASPI, the worse performance for a month in CSE for 2017 so far. Solely the decline is due to policy uncertainties and less than expected earnings session for Q2 2017.

However the day's turnover was a respectable 845Mn thanks to trades in Commercial Bank, Amana Takaful and JKH. However number of trades remain below 3,000 mark indicating the continues sideline of retail investors.

Foreign sales exceeded the purchase by 71Mn for the day. The month of August has failed to record significant foreign inflow compared the the other months of the year.

So after a disappointing August we are moving to the 'Super September' from tomorrow. September was a month happened to generate good returns to investors historically. Will the same thing repeats @ CSE in 2017 as well.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby SHARK » Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:27 am

Thanks Blue for the round up.

lets hope for a green month.... ahead
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:22 am

Me too expecting a good month ahead.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Xmart » Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:12 pm

Thanks blue for untiring efforts and wonderful journal.
Feed The Bull.. Hunt The Bear..

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:27 pm

4th September 2017

Super September started in a dull fashion but gained momentum during the day and then faded away towards the end. Finally ASPI closed 5 points down from the previous close. Dialog and Hemas led the market losses today while JKH stood somewhat solid on low volumes.

Market turnover was a encouraging 923Mn however thanks to inter group transfer of Soy Foods. Number of trades were well below 3,000 with majority were concentrated on new retail fairytales in terms of LDEV and BALA both recorded super results in their recent results releases.

Foreign activities too seems a tad low but ended the day with a net inflow of 100Mn.

Being tomorrow is a holiday again market will remain dull for this week despite some concentrated interest on selected retail counters.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby topcat » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:56 pm

Thnx blue
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:30 pm

6th September 2017

Market continue on its declining trend this time losing another 24 points. SLT was the biggest contributor while TRAN, MELS, CLC, etc followed. However the top gainer for the day was Lankem Developments which is trading with lot of enthusiasm at the moment on top of their impressive financial result.

The day's turnover tops 1.5Bn rupees on the back of huge crossing in Tokyo Cement. 13.3Mn block of Tokyo Cement crossed @ a price of 72.1 to the value of Rs964Mn.The deal was between foreign parties.

Foreign selling exceeds foreign purchases by 264Mn.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:41 pm

7th September 2017

The market edged up marginally on account of the reactivated interest in LOLC group stocks. LOLC has been the star with BIL, FLCH and LOFC. LDEV witnessed a selling pressure on account of profit taking whilst Balangoda and Madulsima have witnessed a renewed interest from retail investors.

Turnover was a moderate Rs628Mn with total number of trades exceeding 3,400. Retail interest is seen coming back slowly to the market with the activation of plantation sector stocks as well as LOLC group.

Foreign purchases exceeded foreign sales by 332Mn nullifying the net sales impact of yesterday.

The enactment of the new IRA will be the key trend setter for the market, either positive or negative, depending on the majority belief. Hope it will be a positive reaction.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:39 pm

Thanks BW.....
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