Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:12 pm

Thanks BW
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:08 pm

29th September 2017

So today marked the end of super September. In terms of the market index ASPI gained by 0.7% for the month compared to the big loss it suffered in the month of August. But in terms of activity the increase in September is very much higher than that of in August. Retail activities almost doubled during the month. ASPI was largely negative for the most part of the day but it turned positive in the last hour thanks to the gains in Sampath Bank, Richard Pieris, HNB and Cold Stores. Sampath Bank touched 310/- marking a new 52W high price on the run towards the rights issue in October.

Market turnover reached 782Mn where number of trades exceeding 8,000. Commercial Bank and Lion Brewery recorded the highest turnover for the day. However top five activity generators were LDEV, MAL, LCEM, RICH & CFT. Foreign purchases exceeded the sales by 187Mn for the day.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:48 am

Thanks BW....
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:52 am

You are welcome PAT.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:26 pm

15th October 2017

Nobody seems like to write some in my diary but the diary need not to be abandoned because of that.

ASPI advanced by 3% MTD in October. The ASPI advancement so far in this month is due to index heavy sector movement. Banks & Finance, Food and Beverage, Diversified, Investment Trusts, etc have advanced so far.

Banks & Finance sector moved by 7% so far. Major stocks that have moved this sector includes Sampath, HNB, NDB, DFCC, Commercial and most of which have been undervalued for more than a year as clearly indicated by my research work published in TEC. Whoever took those publications as something serious will know the worth of those efforts in the days/weeks/months to come. Other than the above other spiritual stocks includes LOLC, LOLC Finance, CFVF, CSEC, PINS, HASU, BFN etc which will attract the attention of the retailers and will moved further highs. Stocks like LFIN, PABC, VFIN, AINS, CTCE will be consolidation for late movement as well.

In Food and Beverage sector which moved by 2.5% this month the reactivation of CCS has been the key. The current momentum can take the share price to 4 digits in the days to come. CTC and NEST will consolidate while Cargills will react to its next quarterly result. Need to keep your attention on TAFL & BFL as these two will surprise retailers depending on the next quarter result.

Diversified sector moved by 2% so far. SPEN and RICH are the two active counters in this sector where SPEN has more room for further appreciation. JKH is still consolidating and the completion of that consolidation will take the premier stock to its next level with the market as a whole as well.

Investment trusts which moved by 2% so far can surely gain much more during the days/weeks to come if ASPI performance are good. The two key stocks in this sector will be CINV and GUAR where lot of upside potential is remaining. ASCO and WAPO will be two stocks that can attract good retail interest and will appreciate above market appreciation at the right time.

Land & Property gained by 1.4% so far will be a key sector to look at when ASPI is bullish. Stocks including MHDL and CSD are showing good activities already. MHDL typically very active and has come close to the valuations revealed by my research on MHDL in TEC. CLND, CABO, York, CHOU will be very interesting during the days/weeks to come.

Manufacturing sector is in a rather inactive stage right now but some stocks in this sector can active suddenly. It is worth keeping an eye on stocks like CIND, GRAN, DIPD, HEXP, PARQ, TJL, TKYO, REXP, etc because I can see some momentum is building.

Plantation sector index declined by less than 1% but the most important fact is it is remaining above 1,000 after all that heavy appreciation during the year. This will be a good testimony to say the sustainability of all those gains reported so far in this year. BALA, MAL, MASK, UDPL, HAPU, MADU, LDEV are consolidating at newly established hire levels which is a clear indication that the stocks are preparing to explore unexplored territories beyond the current levels. TPL is nicely adjusting for a possible good quarterly result as many of us are expecting. WATA and ELPL the two stocks in the sector that has shown sustained earnings even in difficult periods are coming down from their 52Weak high levels. I would like to remind my readers that this is the time to take positions on these two stocks as the coming quarter will be superb for these two.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby topcat » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:59 pm

Thanks Blue . Anyway wht is the situ of wata now? Do they hv tea now under wata?
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby GB » Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:50 pm

Thank you BW.. :ymhug:

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby DXB » Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:13 pm

Many thanks BW.. really appreciate ur effort.. :-bd :-bd
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby SHARK » Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:29 pm

Thank you Blue..... compact analysis of what is to be expected ......

Power Sector has been missed out...... would like to have your comments as time permits.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:37 pm

Nice write up BW

Many thanks ........
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PriyanDV » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:45 pm

really appreciated your efforts BW.

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby voight » Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:58 am

Thanks BW
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby helloworld » Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:50 pm

Thanks Blue we are missing you

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:29 am

21st October 2017

ASPI move halted for a while with the reverse peddle in Banking & Financial sector. ASPI pulled back by 59 points where financial sector index down sharply by 496 points. But what has happened with plantations sector. A gain of 20 points WoW. Really showing the ability of retail investors to push up the index.

So as I have written already Financial sector could be the sector to move next with plantations but it will be not in such a pace like plantations. It is quite evident in the last week as well. The simple reason is that retailers alone can't drive the Financial sector index. For example retailers can influence the stocks like CFVF, CSEC, BFN, SFN,etc but their power in stocks such as HNB, COMB, SAMP, LFIN etc is not enough to push them. In contrast retailers can dominate plantations. The strong demand in counters such as LDEV, BALA, MASK, UDPL, TPL, ELPL etc are very good example. All of these stocks have been consolidating at super high levels during the pst one to two weeks quite amazingly. If the upcoming quarter result are as per the expectation of me I can see possibilities where plantation sector index move past 1,200 by the end of the year.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:37 am

Thank you BW........
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Contra » Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:02 am

Thank you for some good information. Not only retailers but also some top traders were active in the plantation sector during last couple of months. In addition, there were few large parcels transactions. Few institutional investors also had big positions in few plantation companies. Few must have changed hands. Traders are traded actively and different types of traders are changing their ownerships almost every day by selling and buying. Few top traders as well as investors left the plantation sector at the wrong time after keeping so long and lost one of the biggest gains. It can happen to anybody. Suddenly plantations stocks have become gems for some.

Unfortunately, rally for financial stocks were short lived. What do you think about badly beaten down stocks in the market and having less attention? Are there any unpopular quality stocks ready for special rally? Thanks.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:47 pm

Blue Whale wrote:15th October 2017

Nobody seems like to write some in my diary but the diary need not to be abandoned because of that.

ASPI advanced by 3% MTD in October. The ASPI advancement so far in this month is due to index heavy sector movement. Banks & Finance, Food and Beverage, Diversified, Investment Trusts, etc have advanced so far.

Banks & Finance sector moved by 7% so far. Major stocks that have moved this sector includes Sampath, HNB, NDB, DFCC, Commercial and most of which have been undervalued for more than a year as clearly indicated by my research work published in TEC. Whoever took those publications as something serious will know the worth of those efforts in the days/weeks/months to come. Other than the above other spiritual stocks includes LOLC, LOLC Finance, CFVF, CSEC, PINS, HASU, BFN etc which will attract the attention of the retailers and will moved further highs. Stocks like LFIN, PABC, VFIN, AINS, CTCE will be consolidation for late movement as well.

In Food and Beverage sector which moved by 2.5% this month the reactivation of CCS has been the key. The current momentum can take the share price to 4 digits in the days to come. CTC and NEST will consolidate while Cargills will react to its next quarterly result. Need to keep your attention on TAFL & BFL as these two will surprise retailers depending on the next quarter result.

Diversified sector moved by 2% so far. SPEN and RICH are the two active counters in this sector where SPEN has more room for further appreciation. JKH is still consolidating and the completion of that consolidation will take the premier stock to its next level with the market as a whole as well.

Investment trusts which moved by 2% so far can surely gain much more during the days/weeks to come if ASPI performance are good. The two key stocks in this sector will be CINV and GUAR where lot of upside potential is remaining. ASCO and WAPO will be two stocks that can attract good retail interest and will appreciate above market appreciation at the right time.

Land & Property gained by 1.4% so far will be a key sector to look at when ASPI is bullish. Stocks including MHDL and CSD are showing good activities already. MHDL typically very active and has come close to the valuations revealed by my research on MHDL in TEC. CLND, CABO, York, CHOU will be very interesting during the days/weeks to come.

Manufacturing sector is in a rather inactive stage right now but some stocks in this sector can active suddenly. It is worth keeping an eye on stocks like CIND, GRAN, DIPD, HEXP, PARQ, TJL, TKYO, REXP, etc because I can see some momentum is building.

Plantation sector index declined by less than 1% but the most important fact is it is remaining above 1,000 after all that heavy appreciation during the year. This will be a good testimony to say the sustainability of all those gains reported so far in this year. BALA, MAL, MASK, UDPL, HAPU, MADU, LDEV are consolidating at newly established hire levels which is a clear indication that the stocks are preparing to explore unexplored territories beyond the current levels. TPL is nicely adjusting for a possible good quarterly result as many of us are expecting. WATA and ELPL the two stocks in the sector that has shown sustained earnings even in difficult periods are coming down from their 52Weak high levels. I would like to remind my readers that this is the time to take positions on these two stocks as the coming quarter will be superb for these two.


Market faced the usual uncertainty post uncertain budget proposals. Investors viewed the budget proposals are yet another set of just proposals but will be decomposed inside the drawers similar to other proposals. Lot of stocks came down as a result. Plantation sector has hit due to unexpectedly lower results for the last quarter. Only silver lining was, out of the stocks I highlighted, ASCO reached the expected price thanks to the takeover.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:06 pm

1st December 2017

Month of October ended with a gain of 2.6% whereas month of November ended exactly the opposite way with a contraction of 3%. All major sector indices declined MoM. Plantation sector index was the worst affected.

What does the month of December stock for the investors. Historically ASPI showed a mix performance in the month of December. 2013 & 2014 ASPI recorded gains in December under the tenner of previous regime but 2015 and 2016 were dull months with marginal declines under the tenner of the current regime.

What will be the standing for December 2017. As a concluding remark I want to say that we can't expect anything fancy from this regime either in this month too.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:38 pm

I would like to see if others can write some here but seems no body interesting :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:50 am

Conclusion for 2017

The year started with ASPI number of 6,228 and after many ups and downs it closes the 2017 @ 6,369 with a gain of 2.3% for the year, at last. Q1 generated -2.7%, Q2 generated +11%, Q3 generated -4.3% and Q4 generated -1.7. Investors got a net gain in 2017 thanks to the good gains made in Q2, otherwise 2017 could turn out to be another year of value erosion.

Foreign investors turned net buyers @ CSE once again with over 18Bn worth of net purchases. If not for the Singer (Sri Lanka) sell out that figure could have been easily above 20Bn.

Q3 of 2017 produced a wonderful time to our investors across the market. However the momentum faded away gradually in the following quarters. But the silver lining in the huge dark clouds was appeared for retail investors through the resurgence of plantations sectors. Most of the investors made thumping returns which on the other end eliminated or reduced most of the losses incurred so far.

2018 will surely have a many different challenges but I am confident that we will have many opportunities to make profits. The most important point to remember is that to stay watchful always.

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby newer1 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:03 am

Thank you BW
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2017

Postby PAT » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:28 pm

Thanks BW......
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