TAFL Vs BFL

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TAFL Vs BFL

Postby Contra » Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:51 pm

TAFL was a dark horse in the sector five years back. It rebounded remarkably during fast five years while keeping some consistency. Now quarterly EPS is almost very close each other. Currently TAFL has net asset per share (NAV) Rs. 112.90 and should go up further in the coming quarters. BFL has net asset per share 208.33. TAFL has the highest ROE in the group. BFL has a good dividend payment policy. However TAFL too gradually have increased dividends during last two years. Surprisingly, currently they are trading PE ratio at 3 while global poultry companies are trading over 13.

If we analyse their business models, in addition to their chicken business BFL has feed manufacturing unit as well .TAFL has specialized in poultry breeding and commercial farming operations.

TAFL


Their Vision is “To achieve complete poultry integration synergies, ultimately gaining export market competitiveness”

Their mission is: To tap and harness business opportunities by expanding into various vertical integration projects. This will lead to increase in Agriculture, Aquaculture and Livestock production, thus encouraging national progress through nutritious protein-rich food to the people of this Nation.

BFL

Vision: To be stakeholders’ and customers’ preferred Company and brand in the poultry and meat production sectors.

Mission: To provide superior quality poultry and meat products that nourishes people’s health

What do you think about coming quarters and years? Which one will have more growth?

Fruitful discussions are welcome! Thanks
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby SHARK » Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:59 pm

A timely update and actioning is necessary for those chicken rally lovers......

Attractive PE ...... GOSL slowly moving in the right direction ...removing the much talked about MRP and other constraints......

The next 2 quarters should give direction.......
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby Contra » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:06 am

SHARK wrote:A timely update and actioning is necessary for those chicken rally lovers......

Attractive PE ...... GOSL slowly moving in the right direction ...removing the much talked about MRP and other constraints......

The next 2 quarters should give direction.......


Thanks. Yes removal of maximum control prices for Whole chicken benefited poultry companies. Sector also should benefit due to removal of several taxes including 15% Duty, 15% VAT, 7.5% PAL, 2% NBT and 35% CESS etc for maize imports. In other words Finance Ministry removed all taxes on maize imports and instead imposed a SCL of Rs. 10 on each kilo of maize. They expect the simplifying of the taxes is expected to reduce prices for the poultry industry. Current Favourable weather pattern should improve local grain out put in the coming MAHA season as well. Tourism growth will continue for a considerable period.

Current rainy season will benefit companies witch exposure to agriculture, food and farm related businesses. I expect higher output in the agriculture sector in the coming months. As a result of this prices of some agriculture commodities which include food should come down further in the coming months and quarters. Overall end of drought is a good thing for the economy especially for Agriculture and farm related sector. Last year major grain season namely Maha cultivation season were badly hit by drought and they planted less crop. As a result of this, it is reported that the cereal import requirement in 2017 forecasted at about 1.8 million tonnes. It comprises about 1 million tonnes of wheat and 100 000 tonnes of maize. For rice, the import requirements are estimated at about 700 000 tonnes for 2017. This is well above the five-year average. This time farmers can plant more acreage of crops.

MAHA harvest from February to April
Yala harvest from August to October

we can reasonably expect better output from coming major MAHA harvest thanks to much improved weather pattern. Prices of rice and maize should come down further in the coming months and quarters due to import specially in a falling grain prices in the world grain market as well as better harvest this time. In other words there should be low food inflation.

Now Agir analysts including The International Grains Council (IGC) are expecting record global grain output for 2017/18 season. World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2017-18 is forecast to be the second largest ever, at 2.069 billion tonnes,” the IGC said. The IGC forecast 2017-18 maize production at 1.029 billion tonnes, up from 1.017 billion tonnes in August. After an enormous harvest ,Russia’s wheat inventories could be the biggest in a quarter of a century. Soybean production for 2017-18 was forecast at 348 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from August.
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby SHARK » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:46 am

Thanks you contra.
time has come to seriously look at the poultry sector.

can we see an anticipated rally ... in the near future...
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby SHARK » Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:53 am

members should identify relatively cheaper stocks and take positions.
in a rally, there will be more new comers coming into the market.
this sudden or gradual attraction to the market should attract more demand for cheaper stocks.
it is not acceptable that these stocks are traded around 3 when market sees a surge.

in a relative term 6-7 PER should be the norm.

we should also see how many CDS accounts are active and how many new accounts are opening monthly/quarterly.
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby SHARK » Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:26 am

2016/17 Recorded highest ever growth, but SP trading suffered.
i see clear accumulation pattern on BFL.
Its EPS 44 Rs as per last year AR.

The BFL rally should trigger at CMP based on the Monthly chart.

Technically we can target Rs. 300-350.

based on EPS TTM vs 1 year ago recorded 24% growth We expect stable growth to continue ...

ROE is over 20%
D/E is below 18.5%

D/Y has doubled to 5% compared to 5Yr average. Shows that management is sharing its wealth with its shareholders.
i remember same was discussed in BFL thread by me few years ago, before they enhance the dividends in 2015.
when they announced an interim dividend.

usually it was a final dividend.

this month should attract an interim dividend by all means.

this dividend increase will attract much bigger players/investors ..... simply due to abundance wealth need to get re-invested .........

a growth company will surely attract strategic investors foreign and local.

this will create demand for the total 60 million shares, out of which 10 million stand to be the public holding.

their retained reserve fund in the balance sheet looks very strong.

what will this take shape to create required liquidity.
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby PAT » Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:45 pm

Long awaited poultry rally ...

September results will give us the direction
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby Contra » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:20 am

Despite some short term issues, just like some other Asian countries, poultry demand is increasing due to increasing tourism, the urbanization, fast food culture, and the growth in the hotel, restaurant and catering industries etc in Sri-Lanka. The per capita chicken meat consumption is estimated to increase up to 8.8 kilogrammes in 2017. It was around 7 kilograms from 2013 to 2016. Egg consumption also should go up in 2017 when compare with 2016. By 2019/20, arrival of tourists at least should exceed 3 million. In addition, based on the following ratios, currently poultry sector has one of the most attractive valuations in the market and mostly debt free sector.

Unlike rice, poultry producers didn’t increase their whole chicken much after removing price control. They only increased it by Rs.10 per one kg of whole chicken. Egg prices are selling at reasonable prices and they can increase their turnover as their substitutes such as other meat and fish are very expensive in the market now. Egg consumption should rise in 2017 over 2016.According to the Department of Animal Production and Health, chicken meat production this year is estimated to reach 189,020 mt compared to 182,690 mt in 2016.Per capita consumption of chicken, rose from 6.9 up to 7.3 kg by the end of the year in 2016. But per capita consumption of eggs reduced from 72 down to 68 during the same period in 2016.It was mainly due to limited supply of Layer DOCs in the domestic market, import restrictions of Layer Parent Stock DOCs in the wake of 2016’s major outbreak of avian influenza in exporting countries etc. An outbreak of a variant of H5 bird flu has been detected in a poultry farm in the Netherlands, the leading country in European egg and poultry meat exports on Friday 13th again.

Some Ratios on TAFL and BFL

Book value/share:

BFL: 208.33
TFL: 112.90

P/E Ratio

BFL 3.63
TAFL 3.59

Return on Equity

BFL:22.97
TAFL;35.41

Quick Ratio

BFL: 2.75
TAFL: 3.43

Current Ratio:

BFL: 3.08
TAFL: 3.71

LT Debt to Equity:

TAFL: 0%
BFL: 15.29%

Gross margin:

BFL: 27.31
TAFL: 35.93%

Cash Flow/Share

TAFL: 39.32
BFL: 24.30

Dividend Policy:

Currently BFL has good dividend policy and TAFL has increased their dividend during last two years.

Which poultry companies will get more market share in the coming years?
Which poultry companies will have more export opportunities in Regional markets?
Which one will become fast grower and will have the strongest balance sheet in the market?
Which one has the more efficiency?'
Who will lead the next poultry rally? Will it be GRAN ? Because of volume available in the market.

Trend in global poultry market

Not sure why Europe get bird flu almost every year. After South Africa and few African countries, new bird flu has reported in Netherland. Any ban on poultry movements could lead to poultry shortage in some countries. African countries were about to import grand parent stocks from Europe due to shortage there. If this trend continues, time to time there will be some shortage in poultry products especially for grand parent stocks and some limitations in global poultry trade. In Situation like this, mostly Thailand poultry exporters will benefit in Asia.

Other positive factors for the sector:

Can expect planting of more acres of grain in Sri-Lanka in the MAHA season from September 2017 to March 2017 thanks to good weather (There is no doubt good weather will increase agriculture output in the coming months).

Ample grain supplies for 2017/18 globally.
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby PAT » Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:25 am

Thanks Contra
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby SHARK » Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:13 am

TAF should have been trading above 150. Something not right in my opinion.
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby Contra » Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:35 am

TAFL has more consistency in the group. They also have maintained consistency in both group earnings and company earnings wise.Will TAFL beat BFL in EPS wise in the current financial year? There is more chance to happen it.However, net asset and dividend policy wise still BFL has an edge.

Will TAFL trade above the share prices of BFL or trade closer to it share prices ? Thanks.

One way to be happy: Still BFL is making reasonable profit( they exceeded EPS 10 only in few quarters during last six years and made marginal loses in one quarter if I can remember and also have made EPS of 4 to 5 in few occasions) and has great value plus declaring some rich dividends.

Sorry I deleted a post here because I didn't have the option to edit it after posting. I am reposting it again.
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby SHARK » Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:08 pm

who will take the lead in a future battle between the 2
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby eco » Sat Feb 24, 2018 8:38 am

TAFL will Take the lead.

Pls check we can notice foreign buying on TAFL.

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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby SHARK » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:54 am

Some shares should also measured based on its book values.
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby iF1985 JUNIOR » Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:04 am

Some believe TAFL gives better deal against BFL
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby SHARK » Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:16 am

anybody for a much awaited chicken run :D
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:20 am

SHARK wrote:anybody for a much awaited chicken run :D


:)) :)) :)) We were waiting for many runs but now it seems we have to run ourselves =))
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Re: TAFL Vs BFL

Postby matrix » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:27 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
SHARK wrote:anybody for a much awaited chicken run :D


:)) :)) :)) We were waiting for many runs but now it seems we have to run ourselves =))

=)) =)) :-ss
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