Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby yellow bird » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:07 pm

Some share have started to move without the backing of fundamentals. It seems with the uncertainty around manipulators are returning in a big way.

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:54 am

I would like to refer this as the awakening of retail activity which is an absolute must for an active stock market.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby yellow bird » Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:58 am

OK. Hope big people won't unload pumped up shares on innocent retailers.

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:03 pm

20th Feb 2018

ASPI closed in green gaining 12 points for the day. With the storm in political front getting cleared little by little investors begin to see things same as usual. Highest gain came from Cold Stores with VONE & JKH chipping in. VONE is getting the long overdue attention from the crowds and I expect this time the share could find its true value. JINS touched a new high of 33 while GREG touched an intraday high of 12.90. However the day's star gainer was SFS. SFS recorded a new 52 week high of 2.6 before closing @ 2.30 up by 53%.

Turnover was a respectable 860Mn came from over 6400 trades. Foreigners turned net buyers for yet another day at CSE with another net inflow of 72.3Mn. YTD net foreign purchase now recorded as 5,597Mn.

I expect more and more retail play in the market to come and therefore strongly believe that adopting a trading strategy based on technical charts will be the key for retailers to identify more profitable opportunities as well as to minimize risks.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:52 pm

21st Feb 2018

Market continue to gain throughout the day till the end closing the day up by 21 points. In the process ASPI hit the 6,600 level intra-day which is a good milestone to celebrate. Most of the blue chips were seen registering good gains. The major contributors for the market gain were COMB, HNB, JKH and MELS. Interest on SHL, JINS, GREG, etc were still visible while most of the big banks moving with strength backed by announced cash plus scrip dividends.

Market turnover increased to 829Mn with over 5,600 trades. The highest turnover for the day recorded from Commercial Bank while there were two crossings on Central Finance & Dialog. It was a day with another good activity by foreigners which resulted a net foreign buying of 171.6Mn. YTD net foreign buying stands at 5,769Mn. We are just 250Mn short of the 6Bn net purchase target that I anticipated by the end of February.

Market index now surpassed the pre-election index number with the ease of the political uncertainty and trending towards 6,650 by the end of the month. Hopefully we will see more of retail activities in the market as we are approaching the conclusion of the 2nd month of 2018.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby PAT » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:28 pm

Thanks BW
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:12 am

22nd Feb 2018

The market lost the momentum it gains in previous day by declining over 27 points. The drop came through mainly from blue chips led by CTC followed by Carsons, JKH and Dialog. It was a day dominated by strategic deals rather than retail enthusiasm.

Turnover reached to an attractive level of 1.5Bn where majority was from foreigners. Number of crossings happened in COMB where over 4Mn crossed altogether @ a deal price of 140/-. Other than that Resus Energy had a crossing of 10.3Mn shares done at a deal price of 26.30. Total foreign purchases exceeded the foreign sales by 660.5Mn taking the YTD net foreign buying to 6,430Mn. My target of 6Bn net foreign buying by February is met so convincingly with another few days to go in the month of February.

Janashkthi has announced its share buy-back plan after trading. The analysis of the plan reveals that the CMP has an immediate upside potential between 3-4 rupees. Further CSEC too will be benefiting with estimated capital gain of over 200Mn plus over a 100Mn gain due to adjustment in the trading portfolio to mark-to-market closing price of JINS.

I am expecting a busy market today where traders concentrate more on JINS group while more strategic deals will be speculated in Finance sector.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:38 pm

23rd Feb 18

Though I expected a busy market the day proves otherwise. Market traded the entire day around a thin line without any major upward or downward trend ending the day on a slightly up level just by 4 points. Market direction went to positive side just after 12 noon thanks to some good interest in MELS probably due to investors realizing some value in their 'in specie' dividend announcement. MELS closed @ 68.90 up by 2.50 rupees. The speculated movement in JINS group didn't materialize today due to the investors deciding to book profits despite there was a clear value gap still compared to the buy-back price. Over 6Mn shares of JINS traded within the price band of 30.90-33.50.

Turnover level reached to 814Mn came through over 5300 trades higher than the previous day. Four small crossings were recorded in HNB at a deal price of 242. JINS & HNB generated the highest amount of turnover for the day. Foreign selling was slightly higher than the buying after many sessions of net foreign buying. Net foreign selling amounted to Rs16.9Mn taking the YTD net foreign purchase figure slightly backward to 6,413Mn.

The week concluded with ASPI gaining just 11 points but the most important factor to note was increased turnover together with increased foreign activity compared with the week just after LG elections. Therefore signs are there that the market can gain momentum in the weeks to come but I think some good news from the policy side need to be seen by the market to have a sustainable move.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby PAT » Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:10 pm

Thanks BW
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:56 pm

26th Feb 18

Today is a day highlighted by many strategic deals but the market started with a negative gain of 15 points. AIA was the biggest negative contributor who went ex-div today. Strategic deals were seen in NTB, LOLC and MELS. JINS which went to a silent mode on Friday came up nicely once again trading more than 5Mn shares, an investor or group of investors seen started the collection ahead of the announced share buy back.

Today turnover was the highest for the year so far reaching 3.3Bn. Foreigners as well as locals were involved in some strategic deals. A block of NTB consist of 18.6Mn shares done @ 79.8 where JINS has sold its strategic stake. LOLC came to the scene with a block of 6.9Mn shares changed hands @ 119/- per share between foreign parties. Five crossing adding up close to 3Mn shares of MELS changed hands @ a deal price of 70/-.The foreign activities has resulted for a net foreign sale of 51Mn for the day reducing the YTD net foreign purchase to 6,362Mn.

After hitting the market index @ 6600 market seems getting into a consolidation though it is too early to said so. However a brief push up also can't be ruled out if the stocks such as JINS, MELS, SAMP, JKH, etc start to trade more actively.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby GB » Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:09 pm

Thank you BW. :D

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Edmond » Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:18 pm

Thx BW... :ymhug:

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby solace » Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:38 pm

Thanks Mate

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby PAT » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:56 am

Thanks BW.....
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:22 am

Welcome every one.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:18 pm

27th Feb 18

Market experienced a further signs of sliding down by the end of the first hour of trading and then started to recover gradually to end the day marginally down by just 1 point. MELS was the biggest negative contributor but marginal rise in other counters such as Ceylinco, LGL, CTC, etc has nullified the full impact.

Total turnover was a fantastic 2.2Bn came through over 5,000 trades indicating the activeness of both retail as well as strategic investors. Many crossings were seen in Sampath Bank, HNB, LIOC, Hemas & Central Finance. 3.9Mn shares of Sampath Bank crossed at a deal price of 335.20 closer to the completion of rights. 1.1Mn shares of HNB crossed at a deal price of 242. Foreign buying were lower than selling once again resulting a net foreign selling of 171Mn. YTD net foreign buying reduced to 6,191Mn.

After hitting 6,600 ASPI chart turned towards a bearish pattern. RSI has fallen back to 59. This trend will not be good for March as we are heading to the end of February.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:21 pm

28th Feb 18

The last trading day of February too ended in red. ASPI dropped by 8 points to close at 6,552. However market closing above 6,500 for this month confirms that month of February the ASPI has able to generate a gain of 1.2%. This is on top of the 1.7% gain registered in the month of January. And the most promising factor is that CSE has able to record two consecutive months of growth despite political instability, lack of Fiscal direction and larger macro economic uncertainties. The drop in the prices of key blue chips such as MELS, LOLC, DIAL, COMB, etc contributed to the overall market drop while some entertainment was provided by the price gains in counters such as SHL, SCAP, LGL, EAST, etc.

Despite market drop the turnover has hit 1Bn mark yet again for the third consecutive day of the week. 439Mn of turnover generated by JKH including several crossings done at a deal price of 160 while Commercial Bank has generated a turnover of 236Mn largely through 3 crossings done at a deal price of 139. However foreigners continue to be the net sellers for yet another day with foreign selling exceeding that of buying by 127.3Mn making the YTD net foreign buying come to 6,064Mn.

Net foreign buying has reached the exact amount I have predicted at the end of January now. However I am expecting some increased uncertainties in the month to come to impact this YTD position which can resulted to a decline in the net figure. Sometimes it can come down to below 5Bn mark as well but if foreigners see their favorite counters with more bargains then the situation can turn to other side to increase the net position above 7Bn mark.
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby SHARK » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:39 am

with all this uncertainties in political front.... why market is not crashing below 6000 ?...... there is utter chaos as you correctly said above. but market is holding well above 6500......

i do not wish market to crash due to whats happening on the political side....

there seem to be a nuance compared to 2015-2016 era of governance and ASI behaviour nowadays.

Let me put it in simply
example if Ravi was FM still then a definite market reaction must have taken place buy now.


anybody has the answer please share your thoughts !
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby iF1985 JUNIOR » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:53 am

I'm I mean it's something strange for me, with my little knowledge about Srilankan politics I found this uncertainty is the reason investors are coming to CSE they're happy and they're with hope that 2020 will be new & better ........
"When a person with money meets a person with experience, the one with experience ends up with the money and the one with the money leaves with experience" :-!

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby dhanurrox » Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:21 pm

Blue Whale wrote:28th Feb 18

The last trading day of February too ended in red. ASPI dropped by 8 points to close at 6,552. However market closing above 6,500 for this month confirms that month of February the ASPI has able to generate a gain of 1.2%. This is on top of the 1.7% gain registered in the month of January. And the most promising factor is that CSE has able to record two consecutive months of growth despite political instability, lack of Fiscal direction and larger macro economic uncertainties. The drop in the prices of key blue chips such as MELS, LOLC, DIAL, COMB, etc contributed to the overall market drop while some entertainment was provided by the price gains in counters such as SHL, SCAP, LGL, EAST, etc.

Despite market drop the turnover has hit 1Bn mark yet again for the third consecutive day of the week. 439Mn of turnover generated by JKH including several crossings done at a deal price of 160 while Commercial Bank has generated a turnover of 236Mn largely through 3 crossings done at a deal price of 139. However foreigners continue to be the net sellers for yet another day with foreign selling exceeding that of buying by 127.3Mn making the YTD net foreign buying come to 6,064Mn.

Net foreign buying has reached the exact amount I have predicted at the end of January now. However I am expecting some increased uncertainties in the month to come to impact this YTD position which can resulted to a decline in the net figure. Sometimes it can come down to below 5Bn mark as well but if foreigners see their favorite counters with more bargains then the situation can turn to other side to increase the net position above 7Bn mark.

End of March last year a bull run started which lasted on festival days as well.Im positive

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Shadow walker » Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:12 pm

dhanurrox wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:28th Feb 18

The last trading day of February too ended in red. ASPI dropped by 8 points to close at 6,552. However market closing above 6,500 for this month confirms that month of February the ASPI has able to generate a gain of 1.2%. This is on top of the 1.7% gain registered in the month of January. And the most promising factor is that CSE has able to record two consecutive months of growth despite political instability, lack of Fiscal direction and larger macro economic uncertainties. The drop in the prices of key blue chips such as MELS, LOLC, DIAL, COMB, etc contributed to the overall market drop while some entertainment was provided by the price gains in counters such as SHL, SCAP, LGL, EAST, etc.

Despite market drop the turnover has hit 1Bn mark yet again for the third consecutive day of the week. 439Mn of turnover generated by JKH including several crossings done at a deal price of 160 while Commercial Bank has generated a turnover of 236Mn largely through 3 crossings done at a deal price of 139. However foreigners continue to be the net sellers for yet another day with foreign selling exceeding that of buying by 127.3Mn making the YTD net foreign buying come to 6,064Mn.

Net foreign buying has reached the exact amount I have predicted at the end of January now. However I am expecting some increased uncertainties in the month to come to impact this YTD position which can resulted to a decline in the net figure. Sometimes it can come down to below 5Bn mark as well but if foreigners see their favorite counters with more bargains then the situation can turn to other side to increase the net position above 7Bn mark.

End of March last year a bull run started which lasted on festival days as well.Im positive


Same happened in 2016 :ymparty:
Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time .. ;)


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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby SHARK » Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:32 pm

good observation
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby stocks hunter » Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:27 pm

SHARK wrote:with all this uncertainties in political front.... why market is not crashing below 6000 ?...... there is utter chaos as you correctly said above. but market is holding well above 6500......

i do not wish market to crash due to whats happening on the political side....

there seem to be a nuance compared to 2015-2016 era of governance and ASI behaviour nowadays.

Let me put it in simply
example if Ravi was FM still then a definite market reaction must have taken place buy now.


anybody has the answer please share your thoughts !


There's no uncertainty here. We have a certain future now & from 2020 we can expect a stable Govt. We have very less no of working days towards 2020 & for big collectors this is the time. So they are active once again.

Probably we can expect ASI to reach 7000 levels when we are close to 2020 & to pass all time high & to reach ASI 8000 by early of 2021 or by end of 2021......

That is sure....& for my calculations.....

Look out for hidden gems....

:-$

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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:45 pm

:ymsick:
stocks hunter wrote:
SHARK wrote:with all this uncertainties in political front.... why market is not crashing below 6000 ?...... there is utter chaos as you correctly said above. but market is holding well above 6500......

i do not wish market to crash due to whats happening on the political side....

there seem to be a nuance compared to 2015-2016 era of governance and ASI behaviour nowadays.

Let me put it in simply
example if Ravi was FM still then a definite market reaction must have taken place buy now.


anybody has the answer please share your thoughts !


There's no uncertainty here. We have a certain future now & from 2020 we can expect a stable Govt. We have very less no of working days towards 2020 & for big collectors this is the time. So they are active once again.

Probably we can expect ASI to reach 7000 levels when we are close to 2020 & to pass all time high & to reach ASI 8000 by early of 2021 or by end of 2021......

That is sure....& for my calculations.....

Look out for hidden gems....

:-$

7000 by 2020 :ymsick:
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Re: Blue Whale's Diary - 2018

Postby SHARK » Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:56 pm

possible shot at 7000 by april, month of march is crucial
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”


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