Pathfinder's Journal

A dedicated space to share research analysis and expert views
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topcat
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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:47 pm

Thanks pf.
"Keep winners, Sell loosers"

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby Edmond » Thu Mar 02, 2017 3:32 pm

Thx PF for alarm.

This commodity cycle will give a another great buy opportunity in future.

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Re: Update on Aluminium companies

Postby PAT » Thu Mar 02, 2017 10:21 pm

PATHFINDER wrote:Just thought to do a update on Aluminium related companies as a group rather than taking individual companies one by one.The group consist of ALUM,PARQ,LALU and ALUF

World Aluminium prices bottomed out on Jan 2016 and keep on rising.
It was USD1500 in January 2016 and yesterday hit USD1950 ,Seems it's moving to it's previous high.
Appreciation is nearly 30% for a year.

Now lets take USD/LKR situation
It was 140 in Jan 2016 and now 154
Appreciation is nearly 10%

Aluminium cost alone has gone up by 40% at the arrival to SL compared to Jan 2016

Apart from that Transport including Shipping and Energy cost also has gone up considerably.

All aluminium companies are facing increased cost of sales and pressure on Gross profit.
Unless they increase their product prices coming quarters won't be good for the sector.

On the other hand much talked construction boom never happened in the country and revenue also couldn't make huge growth as anticipated.

I wrote this not to make anybody panic and sell their stock. just be vigilant.

ATM I don't hold any share of the sector and not intended to buy for MT/LT till I satisfy about the industry.
But I can not exclude short term price movement of any of the above share,I may enter for a trade if such happened.


Thanks PF .......... :-bd
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SL Economy and CSE

Postby PATHFINDER » Sat Mar 25, 2017 12:41 pm

I saw there are many negative comments regarding CSE and SL economy in every corner of investor community.
Some trying to create panic among investors for their own personal reasons.People who promoted certain shares now demoting same share heavily to collect low.Vey bad.

Political uncertainty has been hallmark since 2015,So there is nothing new to fancy about.
But there is a talk in the town of cabinet reshuffle once President return back from Russia.

In my view SL economy is coming out of the woods it seems.Some of the measures taken in the past showing benefits now.But fiscal policy has to be straight and steady without waving.

Since we don't have dollar making ventures like Car exports, following measures need to be taken immediately for long term stability.

1.) Money printing has to be stopped.
2.) SOE's should divest as soon as possible.
3.) Fuel formula should introduce


But short term, Interest rate has to be kept high for a while to curb private sector credit growth.

In medium term Foreign reserves will go up with dollar inflows from IMF loans and FDI's once monetary policy stable.

Foreign inflow was witnessed for CSE, amount passing Rs.3Bn YTD,Mostly for blue chips,
That shows foreigners have confident over longterm out look of CSE.
Similar thing happened in 2008 and 2012 as well.


Locals sell foreigners buy.Poor locals will buy when foreigners sell at higher prices.
This is why my gandfather's,father's and my generation learning the same lesson,SRI LANKA IS A DEVELOPING COUNTRY over 60 odd years.

Technical out look of ASI,

Image

ASI shows negative direction in monthly chart passing 50% correction and reaching 61.8% correction at 5800-5850 region.
RSI has reached to 38, at this number ASI has turned up twice in june 2012 and March 2016
So I expect ASI to bounce back at 5800-5850 at least for a short term.

In extreme correction of 78.6% ASI may go below to 5350-5400 which I think won't happen.

In summery SL economy and CSE are not bad as some are trying to show in various forums.
Be careful about Smart Demotions and don't sell your strong shares at a lost.
For MT-LT players this is the time for you to collect good quantities in small chunks.
ST trend players may wait for a while to enter for trades.
Good luck.
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PAT » Sat Mar 25, 2017 12:46 pm

Thanks PF for the timely post..........
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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby NC+ » Sat Mar 25, 2017 12:56 pm

Yep PF its a timely post..
Thanks & Me too on the same view of you. :)
(I do not wanna to talk about other forum, but as PF mentioned they're chasing smaller retailers from the market. Their forum wallpaper is the best example.)
"Letting your emotions over-ride your plan or system is the biggest cause of failure."

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby sashimaal » Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:20 pm

Yes good post Path and as i repeatedly mentioned, the economy is poised for a bounce back. This rate increase was necessary to bring things into place (ideally should have happened a few months back ; now the private sector credit growth could reduce more than necessary in months to come).

CSE may gradually adjust and let's not be over optimistic this early.

NC - Not only in other Forum. There are ones with hidden agendas here as well.
( I am not talking about predicting something and that not happening)

Some well experienced and capable people may be successful in fooling innocent people making a lot of money...however Mr Karma is a person they cannot escape...and who knows, they may have to pay with a heavy interest as well ;)


NC+ wrote:Yep PF its a timely post..
Thanks & Me too on the same view of you. :)
(I do not wanna to talk about other forum, but as PF mentioned they're chasing smaller retailers from the market. Their forum wallpaper is the best example.)
"Knowledge is being aware of what you can do. Wisdom is knowing when not to do it" - Brian Tracy

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Re: SL Economy and CSE

Postby GB » Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:22 pm

[quote="PATHFINDER"]I saw there are many negative comments regarding CSE and SL economy in every corner of investor community.
Some trying to create panic among investors for their own personal reasons.People who promoted certain shares now demoting same share heavily to collect low.Vey bad.

100 % Agreed.
;)

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:35 pm

Thanks pf. .
"Keep winners, Sell loosers"

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby GB » Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:36 pm

[quote="sashimaal"]

Some well experienced and capable people may be successful in fooling innocent people making a lot of money...however Mr Karma is a person they cannot escape...and who knows, they may have to pay with a heavy interest as well ;)

well said brother.
:D

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby SHARK » Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:17 am

Its time we see an update :)
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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby pure equity » Sun Apr 30, 2017 2:07 pm

:)

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PATHFINDER » Sun Apr 30, 2017 6:36 pm

wrote on 25th March in this thread

PATHFINDER wrote:
In summery SL economy and CSE are not bad as some are trying to show in various forums.
Be careful about Smart Demotions and don't sell your strong shares at a lost.
For MT-LT players this is the time for you to collect good quantities in small chunks.
ST trend players may wait for a while to enter for trades.
Good luck.


As I correctly assumed market start to travel in to greener territory.But I'm not going to take credit by saying I made the trend and take some bards to worship as happen in cyber space.

Market is moving with good foreign participation.Net foreign inflow has crossed 16Bn mark at the end of April.Increased retail participation was there as witnessed by increased number of trades.
Continous positive news can take ASI to a higher level.

6600 act as Technical and Psychological barrier.Closing above 6600 is a good sign.
However 6730-6780 is strong Technical resistance.
High turnover with intermittent red days is vital for a healthy run.If things goes in to right direction we may be able to see ASI closing above 7000.

I'll try to do technical analysis of some hot midcap shares if time permits.
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Update on CFVF

Postby PATHFINDER » Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:51 pm

CFVF showed increased activity during last week of April.Traded volume is the second highest for the year.
weekly RSI showed breaking of trend and MACD crossing as well.
Technically 28.60 is possible without much difficulty.
If momentum continues recent high of 34.50 is achievable target in MT.

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:06 pm

Thnks pf
"Keep winners, Sell loosers"

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ALUM chart

Postby PATHFINDER » Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:12 pm

ALUM also showed increased activity during last couple of weeks and closed as 52wks high
Fib extensions shows 23.60 as a resistance and if momentum continues next level is 25.40

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PATHFINDER » Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:17 pm

What else to study next??
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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:21 pm

Cn you do for cocr?
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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PATHFINDER » Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:27 pm

topcat wrote:Cn you do for cocr?


Sure
I need some time
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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:29 pm

PATHFINDER wrote:
topcat wrote:Cn you do for cocr?


Sure
I need some time

\m/
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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PAT » Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:08 pm

Thanks PF, waiting for your update on COCR too.....
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COCR update

Postby PATHFINDER » Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:18 pm

COCR is a retailer's favorite,but couldn't deliver much return as there was a big foreign seller sold like crazy.Even after that selling there was a seller sold around 44,by looking at foreign participation the latter seller should have been a local.
However this selling below 45 made the counter much liquid than earlier.

Technically speaking 45 is a barrier according to past performances.Fib level lies at 47.80 showing resistance.COCR should reach to next fib of 53 to catch up ASI.
So there is a high possibility for COCR to test first resistance during next week.

I have to say Journey is not easy this time because of high liquidity,every one step will have much sellers.
Unless a very big buyer enter to the arena testing of previous high is remote.

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PINS update

Postby PATHFINDER » Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:33 pm

Another good counter appreciated during this ASI movement is PINS.
Company has done very well during last quarter and it's high DY made it very attractive share for MT/LT holders

Last two weeks trading with high volume move it to 52wks high,If momentum continues PINS will make new all time high
Fib extensions show 22 as immediate target then 24.60
Anyway RSI is in overbought area.

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby GB » Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:37 pm

Thank you very much PF.

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Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby gradetrader » Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:42 pm

Thanks PF


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