Pathfinder's Journal

A dedicated space to share research analysis and expert views
User avatar
topcat
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 2776
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:50 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:56 am

Thanks pf
"Keep winners, Sell loosers"

User avatar
PATHFINDER
Co - Admin
Co - Admin
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:47 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

HEXP chart update

Postby PATHFINDER » Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:58 pm

In a broader view of HEXP weekly chart shows ascending wedge pattern with negative crossing of MACD

In a narrow view it shows descending triangle pattern,Both are said to be very bearish chart patterns.

[img][img]
[/img][/img]
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

User avatar
topcat
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 2776
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:50 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Fri Dec 09, 2016 7:08 pm

Thanks PF. I heard a saying charts never lie. I like to collect more if this come down 80.
"Keep winners, Sell loosers"

User avatar
PATHFINDER
Co - Admin
Co - Admin
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:47 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PATHFINDER » Sat Dec 24, 2016 6:29 pm

PATHFINDER wrote:
For patience investors I would like to suggest NEST,SEYB.X and CARG are good buys at CMP


CARG had good buying during last week and break 52wks high in this bear market.
Directors on buying side is a good positive sign.
Fingers crossed :D
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

User avatar
PATHFINDER
Co - Admin
Co - Admin
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:47 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

PINS

Postby PATHFINDER » Sat Dec 24, 2016 6:57 pm

PINS is a solid counter shows high resistance to recent down fall.
I see a nice collection in PINS between 18.50-19
Once done this can make a new high.
Keep an eye on this
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

User avatar
topcat
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 2776
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:50 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:02 am

Thanks pf.
"Keep winners, Sell loosers"

User avatar
Blue Whale
Equity Analyst
Equity Analyst
Posts: 7448
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:14 am
Location: Asia
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby Blue Whale » Sun Dec 25, 2016 9:33 am

Also I recommend the two favorite stocks, TJL and REXP for long term investors what ever the market it is going to be. I am looking at over 100% return in 3-4 years.
Value Invest Profit

User avatar
PATHFINDER
Co - Admin
Co - Admin
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:47 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PATHFINDER » Sat Dec 31, 2016 6:29 pm

Blue Whale wrote:Also I recommend the two favorite stocks, TJL and REXP for long term investors what ever the market it is going to be. I am looking at over 100% return in 3-4 years.


TJL has never let down it's holders ever in terms of DY and capital gains.With recent depreciation of rupee it will surely have a very good future.TJL has more capacity to appreciate in share price.

REXP has reached the peak of it's performance IMO,So I would wait and see how it perform before going long with the counter.
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

User avatar
PATHFINDER
Co - Admin
Co - Admin
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:47 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PATHFINDER » Sat Dec 31, 2016 6:31 pm

HEXP breached Ascending wedge pattern and coming down.Be careful
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

User avatar
GB
Top Contributor
Top Contributor
Posts: 948
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:23 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby GB » Sat Dec 31, 2016 7:57 pm

Thanks path for early alerts.

newer1
Top Contributor
Top Contributor
Posts: 593
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:36 pm
Location: Sri lanka
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby newer1 » Sat Dec 31, 2016 9:21 pm

Thnks pf.
BE A FRIEND OF TREND

User avatar
SHARK
Savant
Savant
Posts: 14646
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:03 pm
Location: Abu Dhabi
Flag: Sri Lanka
Contact:

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby SHARK » Sun Jan 01, 2017 5:22 pm

PF we are looking forward to your ASI chart :)
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

User avatar
Blue Whale
Equity Analyst
Equity Analyst
Posts: 7448
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:14 am
Location: Asia
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby Blue Whale » Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:53 pm

PATHFINDER wrote:HEXP breached Ascending wedge pattern and coming down.Be careful


So we should look at the NAV figure now. Now the share has not the support of the 'pushers'. people who bought 90+ must be cursing.
Value Invest Profit

User avatar
SHARK
Savant
Savant
Posts: 14646
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:03 pm
Location: Abu Dhabi
Flag: Sri Lanka
Contact:

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby SHARK » Mon Jan 02, 2017 4:49 pm

Why not people go for REXP instead HEXP :D
Cos HEXP core business activity i am not happy with.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

User avatar
topcat
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 2776
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:50 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Mon Jan 02, 2017 6:55 pm

SHARK wrote:Why not people go for REXP instead HEXP

Yes shark. So many examples like that. Can you find the answer? :D . If so you'll be a real winner.. \m/
"Keep winners, Sell loosers"

User avatar
Blue Whale
Equity Analyst
Equity Analyst
Posts: 7448
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:14 am
Location: Asia
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby Blue Whale » Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:28 pm

topcat wrote:
SHARK wrote:Why not people go for REXP instead HEXP

Yes shark. So many examples like that. Can you find the answer? :D . If so you'll be a real winner.. \m/


One word to describe, 'manipulation'
Value Invest Profit

User avatar
PATHFINDER
Co - Admin
Co - Admin
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:47 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PATHFINDER » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:46 pm

CARG 200 after xd
Patience is the key for MT investor.
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

User avatar
PATHFINDER
Co - Admin
Co - Admin
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:47 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

CSE outlook

Postby PATHFINDER » Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:06 pm

Nowadays we see many negative posts about CSE are being circulated.Some newer IDs are appearing in every forum with baseless ASI targets.Smartly demoting certain shares.Some of the people who were supper bullish on some shares have become extreme bears for the same stock. :x
Why?
Creating panic and collect low from panic sellers.Please don't get caught to them and loose your hard earned money.

What's really happening

Global developments,

There are certain changes happened and happening around the world.What would happen to SL.
Tump's victory and his decisions restored investor confident in USA,that make their stock market boom and appreciate USD.
Cancellation of TPP is a plus factor for our exports as it opens the door to US market.
Strengthening USD is negative as still SL is not out of BOP crisis.
If we were able to catch US market our export oriented companies would show better performances than earlier.

GSP is another positive thing SL is waiting hope we'll get it within this year.

So keep an eye on our Export companies like TJL,MGT


World commodity prices are on the rise including crude.So companies import raw materials for their production will get a hit.Depreciating SLR is another threat for those companies.
Companies depend on Aluminium,copper may have lower margin than earlier unless they increase prices of end products.

Rubber,Tea and Palm oil prices raising their heads after sometimes,Improved earnings can be expected from those companies with the aid of High USD.
KGAL,NAMU,WATA and ELPL are good selections from the sector along with carsons group.

SL Situation,

Current government looks stable though there are some hiccups.I don't expect current regime change at least for 2 years.

SL economy is recovering but in a slow phase and BOP crisis is not that severe than earlier.
Recent lower rating of SL is a big negative factor for the country.Hope SL will get better rating soon.
Higher interest rates is negative for BFI sector
Budget regulations on vehicle leasing will adversely affect Finance companies.

As a whole Corporate earnings are good,CSE is trading at very low PE compared to it's peers in the region.

A rate cut would be the ideal trigger CSE waiting for.

Technically
6150 was trying hard to give a support but couldn't sustain,
I see a very good support at extreme correction of 5995-6030

Don't sell your good stocks at dirty cheap price and don't buy junks promoted by Smart promoters in various forums.
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

User avatar
topcat
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 2776
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:50 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby topcat » Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:06 pm

Thanks pf. I think biggest problem for retailers are margin problems. Personally I believe promoting or demoting have nothing to do with that share's up or down. But only very novice investor can get caught in these.
"Keep winners, Sell loosers"

pure equity
Junior Member
Junior Member
Posts: 47
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 12:19 am
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby pure equity » Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:55 pm

thanks pathfinder good post. some 'boy' only post negative thinks and politics, pls consider about them as a admin

Lanka boy
Member
Member
Posts: 82
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:58 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby Lanka boy » Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:31 am

pure equity wrote:thanks pathfinder good post. some 'boy' only post negative thinks and politics, pls consider about them as a admin




Someboy නැවෙය් ලංකා බෝය් කියන්න බයද...?ඇත්ත කියන්න ඔන්න මං නම් බය නැ ...


Pure මල්ලි පහුගිය අවුරුදු දෙකේ මර්කෙට් එකේ ඉන්වෙස්ට් කරපු සීයට අනුපහක් ලොස්ට් වෙලා ඉන්නේ ....එතකොට කොහොමද positive කතාකරන්නේ .....? 8-x
ලංකාවේ කොල්ලෙක් එල කොල්ලෙක් ... :-bd
CSE එකේ පාඩු ලැබුණු සංගමයේ කොල්ලෙක් :ar!
නෙවෙර් ගිව් අප් ....කීප් කාම් ඇන්ඩ් ලූස් යුවාර් මනි 8-x
සාථාරණය වෙනුවෙන් පෙනීසිටින කොල්ලෙක් .... :-bd
දාන පොස්ට් මැකුවා කියලා සැලෙන් නැති කොල්ලෙක් :-j

User avatar
Blue Whale
Equity Analyst
Equity Analyst
Posts: 7448
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:14 am
Location: Asia
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby Blue Whale » Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:17 pm

Balancing the negatives with positives is the key as well as a change in the sentiment and the appetite for risky assets are must factors to consider in any analysis.
Value Invest Profit

User avatar
PATHFINDER
Co - Admin
Co - Admin
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:47 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby PATHFINDER » Sun Feb 05, 2017 7:54 pm

Blue Whale wrote:Balancing the negatives with positives is the key as well as a change in the sentiment and the appetite for risky assets are must factors to consider in any analysis.


Definitely a good analysis should have both sides
Unfortunately some use negatives only when they want to collect,use positives smartly when they want to dump
If someone go through this forum there are good examples but need a sharp eye to grasp it.
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME

Lanka boy
Member
Member
Posts: 82
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:58 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Re: Pathfinder's Journal

Postby Lanka boy » Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:54 pm

PATHFINDER wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:Balancing the negatives with positives is the key as well as a change in the sentiment and the appetite for risky assets are must factors to consider in any analysis.


Definitely a good analysis should have both sides
Unfortunately some use negatives only when they want to collect,use positives smartly when they want to dump
If someone go through this forum there are good examples but need a sharp eye to grasp it.




පාත්ෆින්ඩර් මහත්තයෝ මටත් ඕනේ මාර්කෙට් එක up වෙනවා දකින්න ....ටික්කක් හරි loss එක අඩුවෙය්....
CSE එකේ දැන් positive වලට වඩා negative factors තමා මන් දකින්නේ ....
ඒවගේම companies පෙර්ෆොර්ම් කරාට වැඩක් නැ ....රටේ policy එක දවසින් දවස වෙනස් වෙනවානම් .....
ඒවගේම මාර්කෙට් එක up වෙන්න Pray කරමු .... :ympray:
ලංකාවේ කොල්ලෙක් එල කොල්ලෙක් ... :-bd
CSE එකේ පාඩු ලැබුණු සංගමයේ කොල්ලෙක් :ar!
නෙවෙර් ගිව් අප් ....කීප් කාම් ඇන්ඩ් ලූස් යුවාර් මනි 8-x
සාථාරණය වෙනුවෙන් පෙනීසිටින කොල්ලෙක් .... :-bd
දාන පොස්ට් මැකුවා කියලා සැලෙන් නැති කොල්ලෙක් :-j

User avatar
PATHFINDER
Co - Admin
Co - Admin
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:47 pm
Flag: Sri Lanka

Update on Aluminium companies

Postby PATHFINDER » Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:06 pm

Just thought to do a update on Aluminium related companies as a group rather than taking individual companies one by one.The group consist of ALUM,PARQ,LALU and ALUF

World Aluminium prices bottomed out on Jan 2016 and keep on rising.
It was USD1500 in January 2016 and yesterday hit USD1950 ,Seems it's moving to it's previous high.
Appreciation is nearly 30% for a year.

Now lets take USD/LKR situation
It was 140 in Jan 2016 and now 154
Appreciation is nearly 10%

Aluminium cost alone has gone up by 40% at the arrival to SL compared to Jan 2016

Apart from that Transport including Shipping and Energy cost also has gone up considerably.

All aluminium companies are facing increased cost of sales and pressure on Gross profit.
Unless they increase their product prices coming quarters won't be good for the sector.

On the other hand much talked construction boom never happened in the country and revenue also couldn't make huge growth as anticipated.

I wrote this not to make anybody panic and sell their stock. just be vigilant.

ATM I don't hold any share of the sector and not intended to buy for MT/LT till I satisfy about the industry.
But I can not exclude short term price movement of any of the above share,I may enter for a trade if such happened.
TIMING IS THE NAME FOR THE GAME


Return to “Expertz & Research Club”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests