Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Investor from 1985 » Tue May 02, 2017 10:34 pm

BW/PAT you guys know it I'm ordinay investor( its unethical) :)) ......you got our backing and encouragement.

Blue Whale wrote:Why don't you write something on JINS here If 1985. Good to see your view as well. It will be boring if I write all here.
Attitude determines how well you do it. :)

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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Tue May 02, 2017 10:37 pm

Investor from 1985 wrote:BW you know it I'm ordinay investor( its unethical) :)) ......you got our backing and encouragement.

Blue Whale wrote:Why don't you write something on JINS here If 1985. Good to see your view as well. It will be boring if I write all here.


Ho hoo that is passing the ball dear friend :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby PAT » Tue May 02, 2017 10:39 pm

Investor from 1985 wrote:BW/PAT you guys know it I'm ordinay investor( its unethical) :)) ......you got our backing and encouragement.

Blue Whale wrote:Why don't you write something on JINS here If 1985. Good to see your view as well. It will be boring if I write all here.


no way....... :ymbringiton:
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Without compromising your ability to Live Tomorrow……… :)

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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby PAT » Tue May 02, 2017 10:41 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
PAT wrote:By the way BW,

what you think about GLAS ,
they have recorded good earnings last few quarters and good dividend paying company..... *-:)


Another assignment x_x


.................... :ymhug:
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Investor from 1985 » Tue May 02, 2017 10:42 pm

;) Already in my back yard... (Good for test players not for ODI players)

Blue Whale wrote:
PAT wrote:By the way BW,

what you think about GLAS ,
they have recorded good earnings last few quarters and good dividend paying company..... *-:)


Another assignment x_x
Attitude determines how well you do it. :)

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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Tue May 02, 2017 11:02 pm

So you know about GLAS as well mmmm :-?
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Fri May 05, 2017 9:43 am

Blue Whale wrote:Here is another dish for you. Below I produces the facts of Sampath Bank PLC. Just taste how they have grown over the past 3 years under a very difficult economic climate for finance industry in Sri Lanka. Just get a feel of how they grew their income and especially how they grew their EPS.


SAMP EPS & PE 5th May 17.jpg


Sampth Bank EPS target of mine for 2017 is very well endorsed by Q1 result. I am very optimistic. :)

But Are you :-?

Regards
BW :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby PAT » Fri May 05, 2017 12:49 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:Here is another dish for you. Below I produces the facts of Sampath Bank PLC. Just taste how they have grown over the past 3 years under a very difficult economic climate for finance industry in Sri Lanka. Just get a feel of how they grew their income and especially how they grew their EPS.


SAMP EPS & PE 5th May 17.jpg

Sampth Bank EPS target of mine for 2017 is very well endorsed by Q1 result. I am very optimistic. :)

But Are you :-?

Regards
BW :D



Yes, we too....... :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Fri May 05, 2017 12:52 pm

:ymhug:
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Fri May 05, 2017 12:58 pm

Blue Whale wrote:Cargills Ceylon PLC

A company established way in the past which goes back to 1844. Since then up to now it has come a long way. It operates superior product range as of now. The retail segment's flagship brand is Cargills Food City which is the highest revenue generator for the company. Processed meat segment dominated by Goldi brand. Dairy sector's two flag ship brands are Magic ice cream and Kotmale. Agri foods and Confectionary sectors dominated by kist brand. Millers is the island wide distributor for international brands. Restaurant sector's two flagship franchises are KFC and TGI Fridays.

Company has faced tough times in 2013/14 and 2014/15 due to several reasons. But the company has restructured its operations in such a way that the remarkable results of the turnaround can be truly seen by our eyes. The company disposed the total shareholding in Millers Brewery Ltd. Also restructured the operations of Diana Biscuits (Now Kist biscuit), kotmale production process and the KFC restaurant. The TGI operations are moving in the right directions. Also the Cargills Bank is due to add immense value in the years to come.

Financial estimates for 2016/17 FY will be as follows.
Revenue-Rs86.7Bn
PAT-Rs2.8Bn
EPS-Rs12
DPS-Rs7.5(including the final dividend yet to come)

I am expecting a annual compounded revenue growth of 8.3% for the next five years under conservative assumptions.

Due to increased efficiencies their profitability margins were seen improving to 3.2% in 2016/17 E and I expect it to continue to reach 4.2% in five years time. Since the big volume of the revenue and profits coming from the retail segment their PAT margins are thin any way.

The below chart depicts the projected trend in profits for owners and ROE for a period of 10 years starting from 2012/13 FY.
Cargills PAT & ROE.jpg

As shown in the chart the increase in ROE is due to the twin reasons of increasing the margins as well as increasing the DPS to shareholders.

The historical DPS for the last five years were as follows
2011/12-Rs2.0
2012/13-Rs2.0
2013/14-Rs2.0
2014/15-Rs2.0
2015/16-Rs3.5

However 2016/17 is likely to declare a total DPS of 7.5. This trend indicates that the company is well determined to reward shareholder from shifting the constant DPS policy to higher DPO policy. I expect they are to pay 60% of annual profits from here onwards as dividends and projected the DPS to grow to Rs13.9 in five years time.

The below is my intrinsic share valuation for CARG, again based on very conservative assumptions.
CARG Intrinsic Value.jpg

However based on projected numbers for 2017/18 E, the share can be valued @ Rs235 based on industry PE and it can be valued @ Rs286 based on industry PBV. The average value turn out to be Rs278. However given the strong Dividend growth and ROE growth I am really confident that this share will trade more than its benchmark price targets.

Therefore I would like to recommend CARG as a strong BUY for all value investors @ CMP. Especially for those who missed CCS @ 200 two years ago this could be the next bus. Today I witnessed a strong collection of this stock and closed @ 200/-.

CARG was a BUY since 192/- according to technical charts.
CARG 20th Apr 17.png

Wishing you good luck.


Guys Anyone in for CARG. Slowly moving to 207/- now. :)

Thanks
BW :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Mon May 08, 2017 11:20 am

Blue Whale wrote:Cargills Ceylon PLC

A company established way in the past which goes back to 1844. Since then up to now it has come a long way. It operates superior product range as of now. The retail segment's flagship brand is Cargills Food City which is the highest revenue generator for the company. Processed meat segment dominated by Goldi brand. Dairy sector's two flag ship brands are Magic ice cream and Kotmale. Agri foods and Confectionary sectors dominated by kist brand. Millers is the island wide distributor for international brands. Restaurant sector's two flagship franchises are KFC and TGI Fridays.

Company has faced tough times in 2013/14 and 2014/15 due to several reasons. But the company has restructured its operations in such a way that the remarkable results of the turnaround can be truly seen by our eyes. The company disposed the total shareholding in Millers Brewery Ltd. Also restructured the operations of Diana Biscuits (Now Kist biscuit), kotmale production process and the KFC restaurant. The TGI operations are moving in the right directions. Also the Cargills Bank is due to add immense value in the years to come.

Financial estimates for 2016/17 FY will be as follows.
Revenue-Rs86.7Bn
PAT-Rs2.8Bn
EPS-Rs12
DPS-Rs7.5(including the final dividend yet to come)

I am expecting a annual compounded revenue growth of 8.3% for the next five years under conservative assumptions.

Due to increased efficiencies their profitability margins were seen improving to 3.2% in 2016/17 E and I expect it to continue to reach 4.2% in five years time. Since the big volume of the revenue and profits coming from the retail segment their PAT margins are thin any way.

The below chart depicts the projected trend in profits for owners and ROE for a period of 10 years starting from 2012/13 FY.
Cargills PAT & ROE.jpg

As shown in the chart the increase in ROE is due to the twin reasons of increasing the margins as well as increasing the DPS to shareholders.

The historical DPS for the last five years were as follows
2011/12-Rs2.0
2012/13-Rs2.0
2013/14-Rs2.0
2014/15-Rs2.0
2015/16-Rs3.5

However 2016/17 is likely to declare a total DPS of 7.5. This trend indicates that the company is well determined to reward shareholder from shifting the constant DPS policy to higher DPO policy. I expect they are to pay 60% of annual profits from here onwards as dividends and projected the DPS to grow to Rs13.9 in five years time.

The below is my intrinsic share valuation for CARG, again based on very conservative assumptions.
CARG Intrinsic Value.jpg

However based on projected numbers for 2017/18 E, the share can be valued @ Rs235 based on industry PE and it can be valued @ Rs286 based on industry PBV. The average value turn out to be Rs278. However given the strong Dividend growth and ROE growth I am really confident that this share will trade more than its benchmark price targets.

Therefore I would like to recommend CARG as a strong BUY for all value investors @ CMP. Especially for those who missed CCS @ 200 two years ago this could be the next bus. Today I witnessed a strong collection of this stock and closed @ 200/-.

CARG was a BUY since 192/- according to technical charts.
CARG 20th Apr 17.png

Wishing you good luck.


How about CARG. Today it is trading @ 210/-. Trading and moving without any body's notice. But these stocks can't escape from BW. I am that much big. :D
මගේ ඇහැ වහල පැන ගන්නවා බොරු ආයුබොවන්...

BW :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Mon May 08, 2017 11:57 am

HNB too reached 235/-. Something to cheer about for the Blue Whale.

BW :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Wed May 10, 2017 7:26 pm

HNB closed strong @ 240 on Tuesday. :D
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Fri May 12, 2017 10:48 am

CARG 100,000 done at 211.20. Strategic investors taking early positions.
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Tue May 16, 2017 10:23 pm

Cargills close @ 220
Sampath close @ 284.90
HNB 238

Thanks
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Shadow walker » Tue May 16, 2017 11:04 pm

Blue Whale wrote:Cargills close @ 220
Sampath close @ 284.90
HNB 238

Thanks


BW i need little advice from you.. whats best HASU or VFIN .. for 1 year or 2 year investment :ymdaydream:

Both trading at 68-69 .. HASU DIV - 5 .. VFIN DIV - 2.5 .. :-?
Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time .. ;)


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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Wed May 17, 2017 5:31 am

Shadow walker wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:Cargills close @ 220
Sampath close @ 284.90
HNB 238

Thanks


BW i need little advice from you.. whats best HASU or VFIN .. for 1 year or 2 year investment :ymdaydream:

Both trading at 68-69 .. HASU DIV - 5 .. VFIN DIV - 2.5 .. :-?


Shadow those two are from two different segments. HASU has reported impressive growth in the 1st quarter itself where some other big companies like JINS, AIA etc showed declines. So that is a very good share from insurance.

VFIN has reported excellent growth form Finance sector stocks. Its next year too will be impressive.

So I think you have to decide the industry first and then select the stock.

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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Aug 08, 2017 5:12 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:Here is another dish for you. Below I produces the facts of Sampath Bank PLC. Just taste how they have grown over the past 3 years under a very difficult economic climate for finance industry in Sri Lanka. Just get a feel of how they grew their income and especially how they grew their EPS.


SAMP EPS & PE 5th May 17.jpg
SAMP Projections.jpg


Sampth Bank EPS target of mine for 2017 is very well endorsed by Q1 result. I am very optimistic. :)

But Are you :-?

Regards
BW :D


Anyone in disagreement of my EPS estimate of 61.3 for 2017.

https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_fi ... 6.2017.pdf
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby PAT » Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:53 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:Here is another dish for you. Below I produces the facts of Sampath Bank PLC. Just taste how they have grown over the past 3 years under a very difficult economic climate for finance industry in Sri Lanka. Just get a feel of how they grew their income and especially how they grew their EPS.


SAMP EPS & PE 5th May 17.jpg
SAMP Projections.jpg

Sampth Bank EPS target of mine for 2017 is very well endorsed by Q1 result. I am very optimistic. :)

But Are you :-?

Regards
BW :D


Anyone in disagreement of my EPS estimate of 61.3 for 2017.

https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_fi ... 6.2017.pdf


........ :-bd
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:31 pm

Sampath Bank standing strong in the gloomy market too amidst the heavy rights pending. Something to thing seriously.
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:04 pm

Blue Whale wrote:Adding few more.

SAMP share price grew by an annual rate of 5% in 2015 and 2016 where as their EPS grew by 25.8% and 39.6% respectively. But what has happened to the stock's PE, coming down from 7.7x in 2014 to 4.9x in 2016.

Is this logical in any economic situation? This stock has increased the dividend distribution YoY to shareholders. Look at how they have distributed in this month. If we assume this year they are going to grow their EPS by an average 20% then what is the PE we are looking at. At CMP it is 4.3.

I think this has to be rectified. This mis match should be adjusted immediately. And more over I think that should happen in this year. So what could be the price we can look at? I think the market has sense that now. Why @ CMP the share price has already gained by 7.5%. We are just in the second month of 2017.

So my expectation is that SAMP will trade close to Rs400/- by the end of this year. Also I feel that they may come up with some kind of share split because they have been practicing the scrip dividend for several years by now. So you are also invited to evaluate and invest wisely.


Sampath was trading @ 280/- when I wrote this. Now 300/-, Can it reach 400/- by this December. That means after ex-rights can it rise to 378/- by this December ;)
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby sashimaal » Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:19 pm

Sorry BW , i disagree. If that is the case, what about LFIN, VFIN, etc? Where should they be?

Almost all B&F sector shares are highly undervalued compared to the 2014 valuations and seem to be collected by Players at the moment.
The entire Sector will gradually go up.
Ones who over perform will adjust upwards more in proportion.

I personally don't think your justification is sufficient for the very high near-ST target mentioned as most shares in the B&F sector trades at a steeply discounted PE level similar to SAMP and it is not a special case.


Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:Adding few more.

SAMP share price grew by an annual rate of 5% in 2015 and 2016 where as their EPS grew by 25.8% and 39.6% respectively. But what has happened to the stock's PE, coming down from 7.7x in 2014 to 4.9x in 2016.

Is this logical in any economic situation? This stock has increased the dividend distribution YoY to shareholders. Look at how they have distributed in this month. If we assume this year they are going to grow their EPS by an average 20% then what is the PE we are looking at. At CMP it is 4.3.

I think this has to be rectified. This mis match should be adjusted immediately. And more over I think that should happen in this year. So what could be the price we can look at? I think the market has sense that now. Why @ CMP the share price has already gained by 7.5%. We are just in the second month of 2017.

So my expectation is that SAMP will trade close to Rs400/- by the end of this year. Also I feel that they may come up with some kind of share split because they have been practicing the scrip dividend for several years by now. So you are also invited to evaluate and invest wisely.


Sampath was trading @ 280/- when I wrote this. Now 300/-, Can it reach 400/- by this December. That means after ex-rights can it rise to 378/- by this December ;)
"Knowledge is being aware of what you can do. Wisdom is knowing when not to do it" - Brian Tracy

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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:22 pm

I have stated about the possibility but not said it should perform that movement. LFIN and VFIN are different though they are all in finance sector.
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:21 pm

Blue Whale wrote:Adding few more.

SAMP share price grew by an annual rate of 5% in 2015 and 2016 where as their EPS grew by 25.8% and 39.6% respectively. But what has happened to the stock's PE, coming down from 7.7x in 2014 to 4.9x in 2016.

Is this logical in any economic situation? This stock has increased the dividend distribution YoY to shareholders. Look at how they have distributed in this month. If we assume this year they are going to grow their EPS by an average 20% then what is the PE we are looking at. At CMP it is 4.3.

I think this has to be rectified. This mis match should be adjusted immediately. And more over I think that should happen in this year. So what could be the price we can look at? I think the market has sense that now. Why @ CMP the share price has already gained by 7.5%. We are just in the second month of 2017.

So my expectation is that SAMP will trade close to Rs400/- by the end of this year. Also I feel that they may come up with some kind of share split because they have been practicing the scrip dividend for several years by now. So you are also invited to evaluate and invest wisely.


When I look back have seen more reasons to smile. Sampath was trading @ 266/- when I writing this and now after eight months it is trading @ 350/-. This is called Mr.Market rewords the deserves at the appropriate time. 31% gain in eight months in a market where ASPI was moving with lot of uncertainty is a remarkable thing. I saw this can come and I duly written on TEC board as my community social responsibility. :-h
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Re: Blue Whale's Journey to Discover Hidden Value

Postby Blue Whale » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:23 pm

sashimaal wrote:Sorry BW , i disagree. If that is the case, what about LFIN, VFIN, etc? Where should they be?

Almost all B&F sector shares are highly undervalued compared to the 2014 valuations and seem to be collected by Players at the moment.
The entire Sector will gradually go up.
Ones who over perform will adjust upwards more in proportion.

I personally don't think your justification is sufficient for the very high near-ST target mentioned as most shares in the B&F sector trades at a steeply discounted PE level similar to SAMP and it is not a special case.


Blue Whale wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:Adding few more.

SAMP share price grew by an annual rate of 5% in 2015 and 2016 where as their EPS grew by 25.8% and 39.6% respectively. But what has happened to the stock's PE, coming down from 7.7x in 2014 to 4.9x in 2016.

Is this logical in any economic situation? This stock has increased the dividend distribution YoY to shareholders. Look at how they have distributed in this month. If we assume this year they are going to grow their EPS by an average 20% then what is the PE we are looking at. At CMP it is 4.3.

I think this has to be rectified. This mis match should be adjusted immediately. And more over I think that should happen in this year. So what could be the price we can look at? I think the market has sense that now. Why @ CMP the share price has already gained by 7.5%. We are just in the second month of 2017.

So my expectation is that SAMP will trade close to Rs400/- by the end of this year. Also I feel that they may come up with some kind of share split because they have been practicing the scrip dividend for several years by now. So you are also invited to evaluate and invest wisely.


Sampath was trading @ 280/- when I wrote this. Now 300/-, Can it reach 400/- by this December. That means after ex-rights can it rise to 378/- by this December ;)


Can you believe in this sash. 300 to 350 is achieved. Another 30-50 not possible :-?
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