LIOC Community

stockback
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Re: LIOC Community

Postby stockback » Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:24 pm

price formula is prepared looking at CPC.

then LIOC has Big Advantage ....

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby Chanuth » Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:28 pm

Thanks pathfinder for the different view

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby solace » Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:21 am

Thanks Path.Make sense.

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby stocks hunter » Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:39 pm

Good collection going on to push this above Rs35/ levels.

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby SHARK » Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:04 am

Sri Lanka is implementing a fuel pricing formula to determine the price of petrol and diesel through a special committee of senior public officials ending the earlier practice of fixing the prices in an ad hoc manner by the government.

A special committee headed by the Deputy Secretary to the Treasury and representatives of the President, Prime Minister, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Ministry of Public Enterprises and Fiscal Policy Department has been entrusted with this task.

Business Times reliably learnt that the Singaporean benchmark has been chosen as one option as Sri Lanka’s fuel is being sourced from that country while the actual weighted average cost of importation of fuel at the time of landing will also be considered.

The fuel pricing model is mainly based on Singapore FOB price (US$/bbl) + Freight/loss/insurance (US$/bbl) which is the CIF price ($/bbl) and currency exchange rate (Rs/ $)/litres per bbl equivalent to CIF price (Rs /litre).

One barrel of crude oil contains about 160 litres of oil priced in US dollars. To calculate price, US dollars are converted to Sri Lankan rupees and then divided by 160.

The landed cost (jetty pipeline charges, +port development levy +LC charge ), taxes (excise duty, customs duty, and other levies including VAT) , CPC/ LIOC finance charges, CPC/, LIOC wholesale costs, CPC /LIOC margin, marketing/ distribution costs and dealer discounts are the other factors contributing for the determination of consumer retail price.

A litre of petrol when unloaded at the harbour costs only Rs. 78.43, they said adding that the total tax levied by the government is Rs. 60.63. The total is Rs. 139.06 (78.43 + 60.63).

A litre of petrol is sold for Rs.145. Therefore the additional profit for the government was Rs. 5.94, they pointed out.

A litre of diesel is unloaded at Rs. 83.70. The tax is Rs. 32.14. The total is Rs. 115.84 (83.70 + 32.14). The litre of diesel is sold at Rs.118. The additional profit was Rs. 2.16 from a litre of diesel, they claimed.

The Government was compelled to use this additional profit to offset the losses of CPC which stood at Rs.217 billion at the end of 2017 and it lost a further Rs.18 billion up to April 2018 due to selling products below cost.
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Re: LIOC Community

Postby SHARK » Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:20 am

The article has considered CIF and Taxes only in calculating the profit per liter.. Finance charges, Margins, wholesale costs,Dealer costs,Distribution and Marketing overheads not included as they depend on CPC/LIOC. Can these determinants over weigh the profit stated per liter in the article ?

The full picture will be unfolded in September financials of LIOC. With some indications about turning profitable or not from current qtr earnings.

LIOC has significantly created more additional revenue streams, which I have stated in my previous posts, pls refer annual report or my excel template you will see growth in other incomes.

Further as ministers said full impact of the formula is yet to pass on to the consumer. So going forward in measured strategy the 100% application will take full effect in few years.

In the meantime Current revisions could keep in my opinion a target net profit of 3billion mark in current financial year if agw.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby SHARK » Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:54 pm

PATHFINDER wrote:I have a different view on LIOC
Oil formula will help to keep LIOC in profit all the time for sure,but the same formula prevent LIOC getting exceptional profit as they have to price their products according to world oil prices.Unless they cut down cost of sales significantly there won't be outstanding reports.
In longterm with continuous top line growth they can decrease Finance cost and improve the bottom line.But it will take sometime.

Next quarter report anyway won't be a good one.Till quarter report become better I consider LIOC as a trading share only.


Bunkering :
Outlook
The short to medium term outlook for the country’s bunkering industry is positive, particularly given an increase in India’s bunkering tax which renders Sri Lanka a more competitive location.
The country’s strategic positioning within regional marine routes and competitive pricing affords it much potential for growth. That said, substantial investments in infrastructure development is essential to successfully capitalise on the country’s growth potential; for instance, both Colombo and Trincomalee ports lack the jetty depth to attract larger vessels.
More ever night time berthing facility is not available in both the ports, which is likely to contain the country’s growth prospects in bunkering over the long-term.

My Comments : Further Vessels calling Colombo /Trinco for Bunkering is now allowed to carry out Crew Changes within 12 Hours without paying Anchorage Fee. This wasnt available earlier.

So in my opinion We shouldn't focus only Auto Fuel Segment, but other sub segments such as Bunkering as it has constituted 20% of overall Revenues. That is offsetting any under-recoveries in the main revenue stream. \m/
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby solace » Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:32 am

Thanks everyone for healthy discussion.

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby SHARK » Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:53 pm

So are we to expect a revision every month or once in 2 months :)

if its monthly, then a marginal increase could be possible in my opinion.
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Re: LIOC Community

Postby lukedesilva » Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:14 pm

Monthly if needed , I think !

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby SHARK » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:30 pm

Thanks Luke.
If 33.50 is broken by next week, we might see 35 coming into play.

Fingers Crossed :)
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby dhanurrox » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:56 pm


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Re: LIOC Community

Postby stocks hunter » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:33 pm

Solid foundation is building up for a better future.

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby SHARK » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:34 pm

As you said when LIOC has become a safe play in CSE, an expected better year than last year.
As long as LIOC has the tag of safe play, people will rally behind these.
Hence Higher PE is inevitable.
Top 20 holding more shares than Dec 2017 list, they all add to good times ahead.
The accumulation is going on, without letting it rise.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby stockback » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:03 am

46 Cents. means they are making around 1.5 Rs for quarter.

Price Formula introduce Mid of May. that mean they have some losses during first half of may. if we assume 25 cents loss during first half. that means they have made 70 cents during second Half.

if you dont agree with me please tell me your point.

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby lukedesilva » Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:36 am

May need to account for the devaluation of the LKR.

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby SHARK » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:00 am

actually luke the devaluation has been a thorn of the issue for most ... alum and lioc etc, where there import take a big chunk.
with CBSL stating 9 bil USD reserve, with support of chinas 1.25 USD Bil to come in Aug/Sep. will it help the rupee to stabilise. apparel exports seeing higher growth, vehicle import discouraged. how well the CB manage the private credit. the last year improvement towards the 4th qtr was mainly due to bunkering operations picking up. thats their tailwind as for me. and isee further improvement in the recent qtr. lioc managing the inventories so well and they have stacked diesels reserves. are we near another hike this week!

worth the wait till next qtr results to see if SB expectations come closer to reality.

all i see accumulations by the funds will continue from now onwards.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby stockback » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:59 pm

lukedesilva wrote:May need to account for the devaluation of the LKR.



devaluation is no problem.. with price formula...

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby lukedesilva » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:15 am

Fuel prices might drop after Friday: Ministry

http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/Fuel- ... 53725.html

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby SHARK » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:40 am

I was expecting a moderate increase, a drop is welcome so that whatever under recoveries can be offset as well. This will provide relief to cpc and lioc and govt. To pass full impact of the formula sooner than later.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby newer1 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:34 am

but PM giving clues about possible hike than drop
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Re: LIOC Community

Postby SHARK » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:23 am

a drop is good as it will allow the govt to fully adjust the impact of the formula in short time span.

also a double bonus to the GOSL -
1.bring confidence in public and
2.adjust the impact of formula faster.

:))
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

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Re: LIOC Community

Postby Contra » Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:28 am

lukedesilva wrote:Fuel prices might drop after Friday: Ministry

http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/Fuel- ... 53725.html


I also expected small drop.

http://www.adaderana.lk/news/49291/fuel ... ight-today

The price of 95 Octane Petrol has been increased by Rs 2 per litre while the price of Super Diesel has been increased by Rs 1 per litre.

Accordingly the new price of 95 Octane Petrol is Rs157 per litre while the new price of Super Diesel is Rs 130.

The prices of 92 Octane Petrol and Auto Diesel have not been revised, the finance minister said.


Prices have not changed much. If I am correct many don't consume much 95 Octane Petrol and Super Diesel.
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Re: LIOC Community

Postby stocks hunter » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:11 pm

Day by day LIOC is getting stronger.....

Will have a super future. Only time will prove it.


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