Metals & Industrial Prices Update

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby SHARK » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:30 pm

Thats a Huge Appreciation....... Hmm
How can ALUM pass the COGS.

We got a loosening Private Credit ..... thats a key.
Rates coming down good to growth in construction sector.
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby sashimaal » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:35 pm

Effects of this will come only in MT as even if a company orders goods today, it will take months for the goods to come and get into finished goods state. Also the current stocks has to first deplete before an order is placed.

On the other hand, this Russian embargoes may not continue forever..


SHARK wrote:Thats a Huge Appreciation....... Hmm
How can ALUM pass the COGS.

We got a loosening Private Credit ..... thats a key.
Rates coming down good to growth in construction sector.
"Knowledge is being aware of what you can do. Wisdom is knowing when not to do it" - Brian Tracy

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby Blue Whale » Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:19 pm

fibreboy wrote:Good luck with ALUM,LALU,PARQ...

Are you thinking this is good for ALUM and the rest. :-o
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby lukedesilva » Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:36 pm

May be some like to bottom fish.

May end up like dry fish.

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby sashimaal » Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:02 pm

I saw below Elliott wave analysis in August last year and never thought it would happen (it reached USD 1900 levels from 2200 levels and now moving up) @-)

https://www.investing.com/analysis/base ... -200210198

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby fibreboy » Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:20 pm

Blue Whale wrote:
fibreboy wrote:Good luck with ALUM,LALU,PARQ...

Are you thinking this is good for ALUM and the rest. :-o



Good LUck = God Bless :)) :)) :)) something like that..

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby NC+ » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:54 am

sashimaal wrote:Effects of this will come only in MT as even if a company orders goods today, it will take months for the goods to come and get into finished goods state. Also the current stocks has to first deplete before an order is placed.

On the other hand, this Russian embargoes may not continue forever..


SHARK wrote:Thats a Huge Appreciation....... Hmm
How can ALUM pass the COGS.

We got a loosening Private Credit ..... thats a key.
Rates coming down good to growth in construction sector.

Agree with Sashi...
Price appreciation not going to affect profits on 2018Q1 and not even 2018Q2 report, bcz usually companies maintain 3 months inventory. So this appreciation will affect in 2018Q3 report. For Q3, we have several months, who can say the price in Q3...
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby Blue Whale » Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:54 am

fibreboy wrote:
Blue Whale wrote:
fibreboy wrote:Good luck with ALUM,LALU,PARQ...

Are you thinking this is good for ALUM and the rest. :-o



Good LUck = God Bless :)) :)) :)) something like that..

=))
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Russia Sanctions Throw Global Aluminum Supply Chain Into Chaos

Postby sashimaal » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:26 am

Russia Sanctions Throw Global Aluminum Supply Chain Into Chaos
Commodities19 hours ago (Apr 17, 2018 06:01AM ET)

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. sanctions on United Co. Rusal that have sent aluminum prices surging should be great news for rival producers like Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) Group.

Spoiler alert: they’re not.

While Rio is the top miner of bauxite, the raw material that becomes aluminum, it’s dependent on Rusal for a key intermediate step in the process -- the conversion of bauxite into alumina. Rusal’s refining operations, which stretch from its Aughinish plant in Ireland to operations in Jamaica, are a vital cog in a global interlocking supply chain that’s now been thrown into chaos.

As producers like Rio hunt for new buyers for their bauxite and sources of alumina to feed smelters, the global chokepoint created by the sanctions means that many of the miners, refiners and smelters that should be benefiting from surging prices are actually facing challenges just to keep their operations running. For aluminum smelters, suspending operations is a worst-case scenario and restarting is very expensive.

Rio, the world’s second-largest aluminum producer outside China after Rusal itself, is evaluating what shipments or supplies it can reroute and assessing its stockpiles, according to a person familiar with the situation. The company may even have to mothball some plants if supplies can’t be found, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private.

Read more about the fallout from the U.S. sanctions on Rusal

"The market will remain very tight while long-term buyers of Aughinish look for potential solutions,” said Anthony Everiss, a senior consultant at CRU Group. “It’s a pretty nightmarish scenario for them. There’s not that much on offer in the Atlantic to fill that gap."

Alumina prices have already rocketed, jumping by more than a quarter in the last week and heading for a record high. Prices have been driven higher by a combination of the sanctions on Rusal, which was said to have declared force majeure on some shipments of the commodity Thursday, and production cuts at Norsk Hydro ASA’s giant Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil, the world’s biggest. Force majeure allows contracts to be left unfulfilled.

Alunorte has been running at 50 percent since a late-February court order amid accusations that a rainstorm led to contamination of an Amazonian river, and any change in its output levels will be key for the global market.

India’s state-owned National Aluminium Co. is already seeing the benefit. The producer said it sold a 30,000-metric-ton cargo of alumina in a tender last week at $601 a ton, the most it’s sold a shipment for in 12 years. That’s enough to make 15,000 tons of aluminum.

Rio said Friday it was declaring force majeure on some contracts, essentially warning that it would no longer be able to sell bauxite to Rusal or buy alumina from it. Rio also alerted some customers that it would no longer be able to fill some aluminum commitments. The company said the supply contracts the force majeure applies to are not financially material.

At the center of Europe’s supply problems is the Aughinish alumina refinery on the banks of the Shannon Estuary, a short drive from the western Ireland city of Limerick. The Rusal plant buys bauxite that Rio mines in Guinea and sells to smelters across Europe. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar met management of the plant over the weekend, according to local media reports.

Rio is not the only aluminum maker that’s been thrown into chaos. Producers around the world are now scrambling to find enough feedstocks. Liberty House, which bought a plant from Rio in Scotland in 2016, gets some supply from Rusal’s Irish plant. It’s also in the process of buying Rio’s Dunkerque plant in France, Europe’s biggest.

Contingency Plans

Liberty House is currently working on its own contingency plans to supply alumina for its Scotland plant, according to a person familiar with the situation, who asked not to be identified.

“In common with other producers we are reviewing the situation in the international aluminum supply chain but have no comment to make at this point,” Liberty House said. “We will update as and when appropriate. In the meantime it is business as usual."

While Rusal makes most of its aluminum in Russia, its alumina plants are more internationally spread, making them more vulnerable to the sanctions. The company refines almost two-thirds of its alumina outside of Russia and can refine 1.2 million tons of alumina at its Jamaica refinery and 2 million tons in Ireland. Other operations are in Ukraine and Australia.

“Rusal’s international operations are of significant importance to the aluminum supply chain,” said Mark Hansen, chief executive of metals trader Concord Resources Ltd. “With the alumina market already running tight, the situation has now become acute in the short term."


https://www.investing.com/news/commodit ... os-1398014
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby lukedesilva » Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:32 pm

There will be clear winners and losers, in this game locally.

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby SHARK » Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:47 pm

Its a shame that we dont have players investing in big aluminium production companies.
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby lukedesilva » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:42 pm

No consistent government policies, who will risk their capital.

This sector has a major potential threat if Chinese FTA come to pass.

Unfortunately, the present regime feels that Sri Lankan construction cost is high due to protectionist duty / tax structure on construction material and there is a large lobby trying to dismantle this.

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby sashimaal » Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:51 pm

USD 2500 hit (Aluminium)

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby lukedesilva » Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:01 pm

Annual Report ALUM 2016/17.

Aluminium
The raw material Aluminium is purchased from 2 companies in
the Middle East i.e. EGA and Alba. The price of the aluminium
is based on the London Metal Exchange prices and the
premium charged by each of the companies. During most of
the year under review prices fl uctuated between USD 1550/
MT and USD 1700/MT but started rising further in the last
quarter. Premiums were at USD 300/MT. These prices enabled
us to maintain our selling prices unchanged throughout the
year.

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby sashimaal » Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:31 pm

Thanks Luke for the details


lukedesilva wrote:Annual Report ALUM 2016/17.

Aluminium
The raw material Aluminium is purchased from 2 companies in
the Middle East i.e. EGA and Alba. The price of the aluminium
is based on the London Metal Exchange prices and the
premium charged by each of the companies. During most of
the year under review prices fl uctuated between USD 1550/
MT and USD 1700/MT but started rising further in the last
quarter. Premiums were at USD 300/MT. These prices enabled
us to maintain our selling prices unchanged throughout the
year.
"Knowledge is being aware of what you can do. Wisdom is knowing when not to do it" - Brian Tracy

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby SHARK » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:03 am

gold.png


Gold rush... will it materialise soon ! :)
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby SHARK » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:10 am

gold and aluminium.png
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby SHARK » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:12 am

i expect aluminium futures to come down and move in tandem with gold, that will be better ne..... for sustainable growth for the industry. countries srilanka can not afford such spikes when we have protectionist tarrif. the taxpayer is at the receiving end.
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Metal Prices Go Bananas Over Latest Batch of US Sanctions

Postby Teller » Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:44 pm

The US Treasury Department announced on April 6 that it was imposing sanctions against 38 Russian businessmen and senior government officials, including Oleg Deripaska, owner of one of the biggest aluminum producers – Rusal.
The latest US economic sanctions against Russian businessmen have affected not only aluminum prices, but other metals too, reports the Bloomberg agency. Nickel prices have risen to a three-year high, gaining 5.4% on April 19. Aluminum alone has gained 7.1% and since the beginning of the month prices have risen 30%.
The growth in prices for aluminum was justifiable as the market understood the extent to which Rusal had penetrated the aluminum market, explains Bloomberg's expert Mark Keenan head of Asia commodities research at Societe Generale SA. Rusal produces about 6% of the world's aluminum and thus it is one of the biggest suppliers in the world.

However, Deripaska's business or any other sanctioned businessmen's is not directly tied to nickel production. While Mark Keenan suggests that Deripaska's 25% share in Nornickel, one of the biggest nickel producers in Russia, may be behind this, another Bloomberg expert Colin Hamilton believes it was just "misinterpretation" by the market. Keenan supports his idea by pointing to the fact that palladium, which is produced along with nickel, didn't see the same rise.
Bloomberg itself suggests that traders might have speculated that other Russian mining and refining companies could face the same fate as Rusal, being struck down by sanctions.

Rusal is Russia's biggest aluminum producer and one of the world's biggest suppliers of the metal as well as alumina. Its production is traded on the world's most prominent commodities markets. The company owns mines, refineries and smelters not only in Russia, but all over the world, for example in Ireland and Jamaica. Its aluminum is used in the production of all sorts of goods, ranging from cans to Boeing airplanes and Ford cars.
On April 6 the US imposed economic sanctions on 38 Russian businessmen and senior government officials in response to an alleged poisoning attack on the country's former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the UK.

https://sputniknews.com/business/201804 ... sanctions/

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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby SHARK » Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:34 pm

I bought Nickel yesterday and am already in profits :D
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby SHARK » Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:37 pm

Will this have a domino effect on our teas if it continues longer. better to book profits slowly ne.
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby Blue Whale » Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:42 pm

SHARK wrote:Will this have a domino effect on our teas if it continues longer. better to book profits slowly ne.


Thought you have already done that ;;)
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby sashimaal » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:32 pm

Aluminium falls from 2700+ to early 2400 levels today and now 2484 USD

https://www.investing.com/commodities/aluminum

SHARK wrote:i expect aluminium futures to come down and move in tandem with gold, that will be better ne..... for sustainable growth for the industry. countries srilanka can not afford such spikes when we have protectionist tarrif. the taxpayer is at the receiving end.
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby SHARK » Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:23 pm

Oil prices will rise to $100 per barrel if Saudi Arabia gets its way.

Only a week ago, news surfaced that Saudi officials were quietly hoping to push oil prices up to $80 per barrel, which would help boost the valuation of Saudi Aramco IPO. But why not $100 per barrel?

Reuters reports that Riyadh would be fine with prices rising that far, which lends weight to the notion that OPEC will keep the production cuts in place even as its mission to drain surplus oil inventories around the world appears to be largely “accomplished.”

OPEC and its non-OPEC partners are even considering yet another extension that would push the cuts into the middle of 2019. But with inventories back to average levels and expected to fall for the foreseeable future, the production limits would surely push the market into a deficit. The over-tightening, presumably, would lead to higher oil prices…just in time for the Aramco IPO.

OPEC just posted its fifth consecutive month in which it recorded a new record high compliance rate with the production limits. In March, according to Bloomberg, the compliance rate surged to 164 percent, a new high, up from 148 percent in February. Unsurprisingly, output fell in Venezuela, but Saudi Arabia also chipped in further reductions.

Two industry sources told Reuters that behind closed doors, Saudi officials have considered $80 per barrel, or even $100 per barrel, as sort of unofficial price targets. “We have come full circle,” a third high-level industry source told Reuters. “I would not be surprised if Saudi Arabia wanted oil at $100 until this IPO is out of the way.”

“Saudi Arabia wants higher oil prices and yes, probably for the IPO, but it isn’t just that,” an OPEC source told Reuters. After the IPO, Saudi Arabia would still want prices to remain high, which would increase the revenues needed to fund the long-term transformation of the Saudi economy pushed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “Look at the economic reforms and projects they want to do, and the war in Yemen. How are they going to pay for all that? They need higher prices,” the Reuters source said.
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Re: Metals & Industrial Prices Update

Postby NC+ » Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:57 pm

Weekly Metal Prices Update - 21/4/2018

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